Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 22%, SS – 22% /
The large change in Traders positions suggest that prices may fall back a little, but analyzing the stress level in the market I can except further increases in the next weeks, months ahead.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The most bearish of all indexes is the S&P-500. The all time cot extreme makes this clear. I’d be careful though, since the picture seems to be very bullish in Nasdaq and the Dow.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Soybean markets in my experience tend to react very well to cot extreme signals (just take a brief look at some historical examples…), so the fact that we have all time bearish cot extreme in Commercial’s AND Large Speculators positions makes me excited.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 26%, SS – 30% /
Nice signal from the change in Traders positions, but I don’t see a big extreme yet.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 566, LS – 307 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Swiss Franc! In the past the market reacted well to these tense situations, so I’m expecting this to repeat again. I’ve just subscribed to FX Trading Guides and now I can see that I should wait a bit before entering the market. Attached you can see the daily-weekly and monthly FTG scores that measure strength/weakness in the market. I gathered all major currencies with CHF.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C - 41, LS – 207 report COT extreme /
Very large bearish extreme here suggesting further declines to come.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 27%, SS – 31% /
FTG Score / D -29.6, W -18, M -46.1 /
Huge change in Traders positions (bullish cot signal) and the stresses in the market are also becoming more and more bullish. Because of the FTG scores I’d be neglecting this market for now.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 567, LS – 563 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -38.6, W 10.2, M -14 /
The extreme became even greater than last week, but the price was unable to continue its decline. Maybe the downtrend is over? I’d be betting on that more… Since we have still a negative FTG score (daily), I may wait until it becomes positive.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 119, LS – 118, SS - 120 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -22.3, W -12.2, M -33.1 /
Maybe not as large extreme as for CHF, but still big enough to consider taking a position on the LONG side. Same as in case of MXP and CHF, it would be nice to see supporting FTG scores.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 21% /
FTG Score / D -42.4, W -48.9, M -3.5 /
Large bearish cot change signal combined with FTG scores that signal weakness in the market --> I am expecting a bit of pullback in prices. On the other hand we should not forget about the bullish cot extreme that triggered this rally and the fact that we are pretty far away from bearish extremes.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 29.1, W 18.6, M -13.4 /
The All time bearish cot extreme in Gasoline suggest prices have reached their top, we should be seeing lower prices coming.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / LS – 564 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.6, W 5.1, M -5.9 /
The increase that we have witnessed suggests that the bullish cot extreme we have in the market may very well be successful.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 47%, LS – 47% /
FTG Score / D 36.8, W -10.5, M 20.7 /
We are witnessing truly large changes in Traders position (bearish cot signal), but caution is advised for two reasons: The bullish cot extreme that lead us to this rally has still not decreased too much, FuturesTradingGuides scores indicate further positive signs in the market…

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 606 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -34.9, W -44.9, M -33.3 /
Platinum cot report is showing us a very bullish picture… The fact the Large Speculators are net short is “scary”, haven’t happened too many times in the past. FTG scores are still bearish which means patience could be needed / further decline in the short-medium term is likely.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 227 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -64.3, W -19.2, M -15.7 /
Similarly to Platinum, we have a significant bullish cot signal, but here the FTG system is indicating (especially in the short term – daily) a very bearish picture… I’d wait for FTG score values to at least settle down before I take any action.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22% /
FTG Score / D 35.4, W 35.1, M 25.5 /
The bearish cot change signal is telling us that prices will not be able to continue their rise early this week, but FTG Score 35.4 (Daily) is supporting higher prices. I would step away from Nasdaq for now…

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.5, W -41.5, M -23.8 /
All Time cot extreme are always exciting to have in a market. Neither Commercials nor LS have held such big long/short positions in the cot History of Coffee. We can expect a major change in the trend. The only BIG question is “when”? For this, it is advisable to go into details and here is where FuturesTradingGuides comes handy. FTG scores are very bearish still which warns us to be patient with entry. I would wait for the system to show me a signs of strength before entry, or at least I would cautiously enter the market (scaling in the position).

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 1030 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -36.0, M -3.9 /
I have become very bullish with silver recently (prepared for the “everything bubble” to pop), so I was pretty satisfied to see Platinum producing this all time bullish cot extreme. If you open a longer chart for platinum, you can find that it has been approximately 15 years since LS were ne short in this market… unbelievable! This is a GREAT opportunity in precious metals! Similarly to my suggestion in Coffee, we might need to be patient, FTG scores are still very bearish.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 18%, SS – 16% /
FTG Score / D 41.1, W -0.1, M 14.3 /
The larger than average change in Traders positions suggests that prices may fall in the short run, but looking at the extreme, I don’t see why the USD Index cannot continue the rise.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.8, W -39.2, M -25.6 /
The picture here is pretty much the same. COT data shows added stress to the market. FTG score have changed a bit since last week, showing modest signs that technical maybe slowly shifting the bullish bias that the cot report is indicating.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C, LS – 577 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.4, W -40.9, M -4.5 /
Very large bullish stress in CHF suggesting higher prices are on the corner, but FTG scores warn caution, we may need to wait a few more days, possibly weeks. I think it is important to analyze all such currencies (measured in USD) together with the USD Index.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 9%, SS – 24% /
FTG Score / D 12.9, W 25.3, M 26.4 /
With a bullish cot change signal and no bearish extreme present, adding bullish FTG values I would be expecting further increasing prices.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -32.6, M -18.0 /
While the extreme has further increased the past two weeks, FTG negative sentiment has been decreasing gradually. Coffee is definitely a good opportunity we should be watching closely.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 44.1, W 53.8, M 30.6 /
All Time bearish cot extreme combined with pretty bullish values in FTG. We may need to be patient and wait for a good entering opportunity /this applies if you wish to maximize your Risk/Rewards ratio. If you are a long term investor, you might neglect this and take a position right away.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. This time I want to focus ONLY on metals, especially Silver!!

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 7% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.9, W -34, M 3.3 /
Not only do we have a bullish cot change signal in Silver, but (!) again we have reached ALL TIME COT Extreme in C & LS positions! Commercials are net long!! Amazing… Something really big is on its way…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

 

[treeman]

I appreciate you posting this information, and the sentiment indications are of interest, on the margin, however don’t these reports represent 2 week old information? Silver since then has dropped even further. And just eyeballing things, interest can be at record long/short for many months. How do you account for this?

I do realize it’s just one piece of the puzzle. What are some other, more time sensitive sentiment reports? Are there any? I know of a bunch for equities (eg aaii bulls/bears, rydex bull/bear flows, Mcclellan, etc), but I’m not aware of others for commodities, are you?