Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[themickey]

The strength of AUD is reasonably correlated to Gold price and the US Mining index

https://www.barchart.com/forex/quot...lse&overlay3=$dsmg&axis3=false&isComparison=1

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 17%, SS – 37% /
COT Index (5y) / C – 8%, LS – 85% /
Both major cot signals are pointing downwards: the large change in traders positions at such price levels suggest a bit of a pullback early this week, but the bearish cot extreme also indicates that chances of a stable continuation of the rally is decreasing.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Get ready for a top… The picture can’t be any clearer

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 244, LS – 254 report COT extreme /
Here we have a bearish extreme plus 3 week decline already which proves that the signal can be considered effective. We could experience a rebound, but in the medium to long term time horizon, I’d be betting on lower prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[amin]

Hello everyone and I am new here...
CAD should be weak........am I right???

 

[Grantx]

This is interesting stuff. Does COT analysis help you with longer term swing trading?

 

[Dunstan]

Hello everyone and I am new here...
CAD should be weak........am I right???

Hi Amin,

I would say that based on the bearish cot extreme we see in the cot report for the Canadian Dollar, we have a higher chance for prices going lower in the medium-long term time horizon --> next weeks, months. It is harder to say what is going to happen in the near term (next few days, 1-2 weeks). If you look at similar cases (large bearish cot extremes) in the past, you can find that the majority of time the price of the CAD reacted to these extreme signals.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

This is interesting stuff. Does COT analysis help you with longer term swing trading?

Hi Grantx,

My answer to your question is: Yes, absolutely! To tell you the truth, I'd say that cot analysis is best used with longer term trading strategies. Don't forget, we are talking about a weekly data... COT change signals (sudden changes in Trader's positions), could be helpful in the near term, but in my experience these signals are not as effective as COT extreme signals.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[amin]

Hi Amin,

I would say that based on the bearish cot extreme we see in the cot report for the Canadian Dollar, we have a higher chance for prices going lower in the medium-long term time horizon --> next weeks, months. It is harder to say what is going to happen in the near term (next few days, 1-2 weeks). If you look at similar cases (large bearish cot extremes) in the past, you can find that the majority of time the price of the CAD reacted to these extreme signals.

All the best,
Dunstan

Hi Amin,

I would say that based on the bearish cot extreme we see in the cot report for the Canadian Dollar, we have a higher chance for prices going lower in the medium-long term time horizon --> next weeks, months. It is harder to say what is going to happen in the near term (next few days, 1-2 weeks). If you look at similar cases (large bearish cot extremes) in the past, you can find that the majority of time the price of the CAD reacted to these extreme signals.

All the best,
Dunstan

Thanks for you reply

 

[Farmas]

Very good analyst, I liked it. Here everything is filed in detail and on the case. But I am guided by forecasts from different resources. Here too it is quite good http://topbrokers.com/ And the rating of brokers can be found.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

30-Year Bond
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 27%, SS – 16% /
Large bullish cot change signal, plus a bit more bullish extreme. My bet is upwards

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme that has turned the price down in the CAD has widened further which in my opinion support even lower prices.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 165, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
Pretty much the same picture as in CAD.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Grantx]

COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme

Hi Dunstan, what do the numbers mean? 'C - 245, LS – 256 '
Thanks.