Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C - 214, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
Huge change in Traders positions + large bearish cot extreme signal --> cot report is supporting lower prices.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C - 527, LS – 513 report COT extreme /
What a beautiful picture we have here… Dynamic decline since mid 2016, now a very large bullish cot extreme. Caution is advised, since the picture would not change dramatically if prices got further down, while the extreme widens more.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 30%, SS – 44% /
COT Extreme / C – 326, LS – 335 report COT extreme /
Similarly to NZD, we have both major cot signals backing a decline.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Corn
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 24%, SS – 12% /
Without any extreme present in the market, we have only got the cot change signal that can guide us in our trading. The cot change signal is bearish and since prices were going higher last week, it is a bit easier to act upon the signal.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C - 414, LS – 422 report COT extreme /
Stress levels have been building up towards the bullish side for over a year now. They have reached a level that we haven’t had for the last 8 years now. Is this the time to enter long? Cautiousness is advised, extremes can grow for many weeks, months before we see a change in the trend.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C – 217, LS – 219 report COT extreme /
Such a beautiful picture we have here! Huge bearish cot extreme when prices are near resistance levels --> may be a good trade, who knows...

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[srinir]

How good is the COT position report for the currency futures, since most of the trading happens in the spot market?

 

[Dunstan]

How good is the COT position report for the currency futures, since most of the trading happens in the spot market?

Hi,

Don't forget about the significance of correlation. For example open a chart of EUR (futures contract) and EUR/USD forex pair, you will see. So if we see that, then you can understand how the cot report can be an effective tool when it comes to forex trading.

There is a video on YouTube, called COT Analysis in Forex Trading -->

This may be helpful to you.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 12%, LS – 14% /
COT Extreme / C – 234 report COT extreme /
Bearish cot change signal combined with a bearish cot extreme signal. We should start searching for short opportunities.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C - 216, LS – 216 report COT extreme /
Not surprisingly we have very similar situation in the Mexican Peso…

USD Index
COT Extreme / C – 172, LS – 172 report COT extreme /
Large specs are net short! Check the chart to see what happened in the past every time they became short.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 34% /
COT Extreme / C, LS All Time COT extreme /
Ok, now this may be a trap… If you scram your analysis, you might go short right away: Huge bearish cot change signal accompanied by a all-time bearish cot extreme signal. But (!) Price has fallen last week already, so the change signal is late. The extreme signal has to be back checked by the rest of the gang --> S&P, Nasdaq, Russel. Because of the significant correlation between these markets, it’s always important to analyze them all.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / SS – 194 report COT extreme /
Here we can see a great example for Small Speculators cot extreme signal. 194 report extreme… ok, not an all time, but still pretty large. Have a look at the chart and see how well these extremes signaled bottoms in the price.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 17% /
COT Extreme / SS – 177 report COT extreme /
Small speculators are still supporting further declines. In the near term the bullish cot change signal suggest a bit of a rise.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 7%, SS – 23% /
We have a bullish cot change signal in a bearish cot extreme place Ok, this level of extreme has been in the market for over a year now and nothing really happened, prices continued their rise.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge, never seen before bearish extreme in this market! Still… I advise caution here: bullish extreme in russel, Nasdaq and can’t see any significant bearish extreme in s&P.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
This market seems to be giving us a good investment opportunity. I used the term “Investment”, because the report suggests a shift in the trend. Prices are likely going to move higher.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 20%, SS – 16% /
Only the change in Traders positions is what we can act upon: the signal is bearish. It is not backed by the cot extreme signal, so maybe not the best signal, but still good to know.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 330 report COT extreme /
Pretty large bearish cot extreme in Euro, but caution is advised, this could go on longer…

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C - 304, LS – 311 report COT extreme /
Pretty nice bearish extreme in Rice… If you trade rice and you see opportunity on the downside, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing you

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 17%, SS – 30% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
Both major cot signals are indicating higher prices on the horizon… We have a bullish cot change signal, an all time bullish cot extreme is Small Specs (LS and C are not at their all time extremes, but definitely closer to their bullish extreme)

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – 477 report COT extreme /
VERY interesting picture here… Prices near all time highs, but at the same time, we have a bullish cot extreme.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C - 223, LS – 223 report COT extreme /
Prices are unable to go any higher, but we are not that surprised, when we have a 223 report bearish cot extreme.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – 231 report COT extreme /
Pretty large bearish cot extreme signal is the Australian Dollar. Check out the chart, you can see I have indicated all the major bearish extremes in the past 5 years. It is hard to tell exactly when the turning point comes, but it is for sure that the stress level in this market has reached an extreme.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – 180 report COT extreme /
Commercials are again LONG!! We haven’t seen this for a long time now… Check the chart and see what happened to the USD Index after Commercials became net long.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C - 99, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme here is not as strong as it is in AUD, but it should still be taken into consideration. What we have here compared the previous two markets is an unquestionable cot change signal (bearish) --> Traders have changed their positions pretty dynamically.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts