Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 22%, SS – 26% /
Both cot signals point upwards: we have a larger change in Trader’s positions plus a relative bullish cot extreme. I wouldn’t say that this is the best trading opportunity, but for any of you, who trade this market, the cot data seems to be indicating a positive picture.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week I said it is not too easy to determine rough rice’s move, because we have had such stress levels in the market for quite some time now without any major price reaction. After many weeks of declines, last week was very strong. Have we reached the bottom? It’s hard to tell, but the bullish cot extreme signal is still present, that is for sure.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme /C – 606, LS – 601 report COT extreme /
What a beautiful signal in one of my favorite markets It’s hard to say much about it, the charts tell us a very clear “story”. OJ has many time reacted nicely to cot extreme signals, thus I have great confidence that it will once again do so.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 19%, SS – 15% /
In my last post, I’ve wrote that we have a relatively good buying opportunity – nothing special, but it’s there. Things have not changed so far, we still see the cot report supporting a bullish move in this market.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C – 149, LS – 150 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is very well “seeable” , so I needn’t explain too much… As you can see, the last few weeks we could witness a bit of a rise in prices which brings us to the question: is the decline over already? Of course I can’t tell, but judging from the past reactions from Lean Hogs to these large extremes, we can expect prices to develop a bottom soon.

Cocoa
COT Extreme /C – 103, LS – 103 report COT extreme /
Relative bullish cot extreme signal. Ok, we don’t have a beautiful, all time cot extreme, but as you can see from even recent examples, these signals could also be helpful to us. I’d say that the report is telling us: “Up”.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 19% /
Only the bullish cot change signal could be of help right now, since we do not have an extreme to talk about… I’d leave silver aside for now.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The signal here is clear and visible… luckily we have “good” history --> such cot extreme signals were pretty much effective all the time in the past, so we can expect prices to bottom out soon.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Contrary to Wheat, the situation is not that easy here… We have had bullish extremes for quite some time now, but without any reasonable reaction from price. If you wanted to enter long in grains, I’d rather choose Wheat instead!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 32%, SS – 11% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish: a larger change in Traders positions and also the cot extreme. I think this is a good market with large trading potential in it!

Wheat (both: Chicago and Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are still declining, but as they do, stress levels are getting larger day by day… I think these are again great markets with good trading opportunities! Similar to Oats of course, so take into consideration the correlation effect when managing your portfolio.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
I thought I’ll jump over rough rice and talk about something new instead The cot extreme is clearly huge and we have seen confirming price reaction last week, so we may start looking for good entries here!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Alex_M]

Hello all,

Not sure it's the right place to post this but I developed a tool to review last and previous COT reports. You can also chart most of the metrics.
It's available here: http://www.marketvault.net/cot
Select the contract in the search field, navigate through the reports using the arrows on the right and display charts by clicking on the chart icons.

It's updated every friday when new reports are published.

 

[Trapper]

Thanks for posting Dunstan! Alex, I will check out your site.

Trapper

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 33%, SS – 34% /
COT Extreme / SS – 160 report COT extreme /
It may seem interesting at these price levels, but all major cot signals are bullish: a large change in Traders positions and pessimistic small speculators.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are declining and as they do, the cot extreme is becoming larger and larger… I have attached a longer, 15y chart to show you: although there is plenty of space left downwards (making us cautious), we have reached a significant support level.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Extreme has become larger, but last week prices managed to gain some momentum… we’ll see in the next few weeks whether we have reached the bottom or not

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 35%, SS – 17% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is becoming pretty bullish in the Japanese Yen. We have a bullish cot change signal, relative bullish extreme in LS and C and an unquestionable large bullish cot extreme in SS positions.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / LS – 537 report COT extreme /
It looks like the bullish cot extreme from last year September was not enough for prices to maintain strength and we may see much greater extremes coming in the near future… so even though we have this bullish extreme, I’d very cautious.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 75 report COT extreme /
As we can see, the bearish cot extreme from last year that managed to draw prices down, is gradually leaving the field… we are getting closer and closer to a bullish cot extreme!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS – 26%, SS – 35% /
Without an extreme to talk about, it is only the larger change in Traders positions (mainly Commercials) that has any signal value for us --> bearish cot change signal, possibly effecting prices this week… I’d move on to other markets.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
With the all-time cot extreme present in the market, we have an unquestionable cot extreme signal (bullish of course). I love currencies in this respect, because these are very reliable signals! Have a look at the chart and you will see that in the past how well the New Zealand Dollar has reacted to these extremes. Of course don’t forget that these extremes may stay in place for many weeks before the action starts!

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 612 report COT extreme /
Although not all-time, but clearly a huge cot extreme here as well (and again bullish). If you have a look at OJs history, you will find that Large Speculators were very rarely bearish in the market… but whenever they were, shortly after that prices hit a bottom and from then on, prices rallied. I’m expecting something similar to happen again.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 49%, SS – 27% /
On one side we have this bullish cot change signal and on the other side we have the bearish cot extreme (more visible two reports ago). This could mean that we will see a bit of rise in the next few days, but for the next few weeks we expect further weakening in prices.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further declining in prices as the extreme becomes larger… if you remember my last sentence in last week’s post, you shouldn’t be surprised --> these extremes bay be present in a market for many weeks before we see price reaction!

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
After the decline of 2014, we have once again reached a bullish cot extreme… not only a large one, but one that we have never seen in the past. It is truly a strong signal, one that shouldn’t be neglected! I think we have opportunities here

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts