Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme /
Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market  we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% /
The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% /
COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme /
The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long…

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal)

I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 23%, SS – 36% /
Without having a significant extreme in the market, it’s only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in traders position was very large, so the signal is good, but it might be that we received it a bit late.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time extreme we can see in this markets is telling us: warning!! The fuel in this rally is running out. Well yes, it is, but let’s not forget about the fact that all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks or even months before any change happens in the trend.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 337, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
We are seeing a huge extreme in Coffee that is indicating a price fall. Will it happen in the near future or only in a matter of weeks, months… well it is hard to tell. We can see that a few months ago, the level of extreme was similar, prices fell a bit, but now they are once again rising. If this rally continues, we should see the widening of the extreme.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 26%, SS – 17% /
The cot change signal is clear, indicating a possible drop in prices, while the cot extreme signal is not strong, although still more bearish than bullish.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present in Palladium, but if you remember what I said last week, this should not be a surprise. I’d recommend you analyze other metal markets also to get a picture of metals in general. We may see Palladium further strengthen, until we get similar bearish signals elsewhere. Let’s not forget about the existing correlation between these markets.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 412 report COT extreme /
The extreme in Soybeans is unquestionably large, but we don’t seem to see any reaction from price yet. Patience I say, patience…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% /
Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher)

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline.


Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful extreme we have here Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% /
Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme /
Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% /
This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% /
The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here!

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme /
The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade.


All the best,
Dunstan

the original report

COT charts