Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Palladium
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Prices have started their decline, although I would feel more comfortable stating that we are in for a serious price decline, if we could break support levels at around 700. Otherwise we can easily expect the continuation of the rally parallel with the widening of the extreme.

Copper
COT Extreme / C-42 report, LS-214 report COT extreme /
Here we see a bullish signal in the report that might stop this recent decline.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-15%, SS-47% /
If we look at the longer picture, than we can see that a real shift in the trend could come, if we reach a large cot extreme (Commercials net 0 or long / LS net 0 or short). We may still see a rebound in prices (as we did several time during this decline), but I don’t think that is would be a long lasting one.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-43% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-35%, LS-65%, SS-56% /
Since our last major extreme, prices are in a decline mode. This large change in positions may stop it for a short time, but I think the cot extreme signal is still in place. We can expect – judging from the last couple of cases – a relative extreme in the report, so if Commercials reach 50-60.000 contracts net short, prices may continue their rally.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in Soybean Oil, so we should expect prices to rally soon.

Copper
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Although in the past few weeks, we did not see a reaction in prices to the cot extreme levels that we see in copper, looking at the history of the chart, we should be prepared that prices will increase soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Quote from Dunstan:

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-43% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-35%, LS-65%, SS-56% /
Since our last major extreme, prices are in a decline mode. This large change in positions may stop it for a short time, but I think the cot extreme signal is still in place. We can expect – judging from the last couple of cases – a relative extreme in the report, so if Commercials reach 50-60.000 contracts net short, prices may continue their rally.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in Soybean Oil, so we should expect prices to rally soon.

Copper
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Although in the past few weeks, we did not see a reaction in prices to the cot extreme levels that we see in copper, looking at the history of the chart, we should be prepared that prices will increase soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
More...

now i ran across this paper

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/Chapter-10N-Wheat-Corn-ICSO-Rules.pdf

speaking of options on spreads.. know anything about these? if you could put options spreads on the commodity spread differentials you could limit your risk.. and or even sell/buy the volatility of the spreads..
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

now i ran across this paper

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/Chapter-10N-Wheat-Corn-ICSO-Rules.pdf

speaking of options on spreads.. know anything about these? if you could put options spreads on the commodity spread differentials you could limit your risk.. and or even sell/buy the volatility of the spreads..
More...

I haven't delt with them yet, sorry. It sounds very interesting... If anyone, following this thread, has had experience with these kinds of options, please share with us your thoughts!

All the best,
Dunstan
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-23%, LS-20% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-98%, LS-5%, SS-36% /
I think one of the nicest markets these days is Coffee. We’ve got a significantly large extreme and this week an also big change in traders’ positions. Both of these signals are bullish signals.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in NZD and if we look at the historical charts, we can see that these extremes were always very accurate signals. (we have a bearish one now)

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)
COT Extreme / C-327 report, LS-323 report COT extreme /
It’s always nice to see opposite signals in currencies, cause it can give us the opportunity to trade the pair. We’ve got a very large cot extreme in Canadian dollar that suggests, prices will stop their decline, and we’ll see higher prices soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-43%, LS-35% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-86%, LS-5%, SS-16% /
Seem that it’s not the end of the decline yet. Anyhow, the wider picture seems very optimistic, so it may be a good trade in the end.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS & SS-All Time COT extreme /
All major trader groups are at their all-time extremes. Prices have not reacted yet, so anyone just tuning in can still find a good Risk/Reward trade.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-436 report COT extreme /
COT extremes in Heating Oil seem to be effective signals, so having such a buy signal is pretty valuable.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-30%, LS-47% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-96%, LS-3%, SS-14% /
Not only do we have a large change in cot positions, but we are at extreme levels also. Both of these are bullish signals, which is very confirming in case you are considering to go long.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / C-323 report, LS-All Time COT extreme /
We have reached an all-time extreme level in S&P – at least in Large Speculators – so the big question can be asked: are we at/close to the top? It may easily be the case, but I would warn you that indexes strongly correlate --> have a look at the rest of them, whether the cot extreme exists there also, before you jump in the trade. The extreme in S&P can easily widen for many weeks or even a couple of months, before we see a top. Anyhow, even if we can’t pinpoint the exact top, we can start to position ourselves accordingly: you can scale out of your long positions or bring closer your stops or of carefully build up a short position.

Gold
COT Extreme / C & LS-229 report, SS-637 report COT extreme /
Small Speculators… They’re the ones, who make the picture very interesting now --> The last time, they were net short, was back in 2001 / roughly 12 years ago!! The fact that they are soooo pessimistic, suggests to me, that we can expect prices to rise further.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi britefire,

Thanks a lot for your post, it is new information to me too. I’ve never heard about Blees earlier. It’s kind of like the cot index, isn’t it?

All the best,
Dunstan
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C-44%, LS-40% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-78%, LS-25%, SS-38% /
Looks as if Coffee is starting to react to the cot extreme that exists in this market. The question here is which signal to listen to: this extreme or the latest change. Well, the answer isn’t that difficult, since usually changes have a short term effect and extremes a longer, we may see prices “hesitate” for some while or even a small decline, but if the extreme takes effect, we should be seeing much higher prices soon!

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
The picture in Rough rice is bullish, we can expect prices to continue their rally.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C-270 report, LS-271 report COT extreme /
Looking at the chart, I don’t think any written words could tell you more about Cocoa, the picture is pretty clear at the moment -> we can expect prices to decline.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
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