I am enjoying your analysis and will have to watch it for awhile. I learned about COT back in '99 from a Larry Williams' course , but have found them to be more difficult to use in recent years.
Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
- Thread starter Dunstan
- Start date
Hi short4bread,
I’m very glad that you are following my thread! Just let me know if you have questions.
I’ve only been using cot analysis for roughly 7 years now and even through this short period, I have witnessed changes in the usage of it… Since cot data is not derived from price, I think this is quite normal. Anyhow, I have very good experience with the data and I think is can give you an edge in trading.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-42%, LS-53%, SS-18% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-95%, LS-3%, SS-18% /
All COT indicators are pointing in the same direction, suggesting that taking a long trade may be a good decision.
Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
All Time COT Extreme in a market, where cot analysis is really effective. We are getting this extreme at a point, where the Risk/Reward of the trade can be really favorable.
USD Index
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Similarly to Rough Rice, we’ve got the cot change signal and cot extreme signals pointing the same way (down
).
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C-42%, LS-53%, SS-18% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-95%, LS-3%, SS-18% /
All COT indicators are pointing in the same direction, suggesting that taking a long trade may be a good decision.
Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
All Time COT Extreme in a market, where cot analysis is really effective. We are getting this extreme at a point, where the Risk/Reward of the trade can be really favorable.
USD Index
COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /
Similarly to Rough Rice, we’ve got the cot change signal and cot extreme signals pointing the same way (down
). I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-35% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-14%, LS-90%, SS-55% /
A pretty large change in Natural Gas that may take prices lower. We can’t really talk about an extreme, so I would say that the rally could easily continue for some time.
USD Index
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
Such levels of extremes in the near past could put a pause in the rally of USD Index.
Copper
COT Extreme / LS-194 report COT extreme /
A bullish picture in copper, although we are not at an all-time extreme level yet. I think it’s important to look at the rest of the metals before one decides to take a trade in this market.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-35% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-14%, LS-90%, SS-55% /
A pretty large change in Natural Gas that may take prices lower. We can’t really talk about an extreme, so I would say that the rally could easily continue for some time.
USD Index
COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /
Such levels of extremes in the near past could put a pause in the rally of USD Index.
Copper
COT Extreme / LS-194 report COT extreme /
A bullish picture in copper, although we are not at an all-time extreme level yet. I think it’s important to look at the rest of the metals before one decides to take a trade in this market.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
O.K. here's a test question for you. How would you trade if everyone was virtually net short or net long a commodity. I actually had this happen once and made a poor man's fortune in a very short amount of time.
Hi short4bread,
What do you mean by everyone being short or long? If you add up the net amount of positions for each trader group, you will get 0 --> for every contract, there is someone on the long and someone on the short side of it. Then of course we shouldn’t forget that the cot charts we look at show net positions, meaning there are bullish and bearish traders in each group. This is why saying everyone is net short/long is a bit confusing. At cot extremes, we can witness Commercials being heavily net long(short) and at the same time Large Speculators heavily net short(long).
Please, if you could be a bit more specific and detailed with your question, I would be more than happy to answer you!
All the best,
Dunstan
I did COT analysis in excel sheet long time ago.Something happens at 20-th of each month.:eek:
Please,give me some time to recall it...As far as i remember,i got the spread sheet from the COT site and just did a chart for the data in that spread sheet.I did it for the ES futures.There is no real time data for COT,as far as i rmember,but there is no need for that,as it`s always the same peaking pattern around 20-th of each month.Usually,it`s the highest peaking volume around this date.
Try to search here:
http://cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm
hth