Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-39%, LS-31%, SS-21% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-92%, LS-7% /
In the last two month we can see that all major participants in this market are changing their net positions pretty rapidly. The latest report shows that Commercials have gone from net short level of 5000 contracts to net long 10-11 thousand contracts and of course this meant that Large Speculators have turned net short. If we look at the near term picture, this change size in positions could easily signal a bottom in prices and we could witness higher prices in a few days. The long term picture is also bullish, if we look at the 10 year chart for example. We can see that whenever Commercials where net long, prices bottomed. As they started to exit their long positions and increased their short positions, prices started to rally.

Lumber
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-14%, SS-34% /
COT Extreme / SS-354 report extreme /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / SS-100% /
I have indicated on the chart the place and time, when Small Speculators where at such levels. Commercials and Large Speculators could still become more extreme so higher prices are still possible, but stress levels are definitely building up.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme /SS-All Time/
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-89%, LS-22%, SS-0% /
The COT extreme is visible, and as the past examples indicate, we are in for a rally.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

30-Year Bond
COT Change (52W) / C-33%, LS-37%, SS-16% /
COT Index (5 year lb.) / C-25%, LS-77% /
The COT change in Commercials put 30-Year Bond on top of the list. It may look like a strong signal, but I can’t find too many supporting examples in the past. On the other hand, the extreme that we can see (the COT Index shows us clearly --> I have indicated on the chart) and also the close resistance level (as stated in the review) giving a potentially good risk/reward are factors that are supporting a short trade.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C-All Time extreme, LS-405 report extreme /
It’s unnecessary to write too much here, since the attached chart shows everything. The extreme is clearly visible.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C-269 report extreme, LS-267 report extreme /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0%, SS-8% /
We can see bottoms in the price of sugar, whenever Commercials where at such levels, so similarly to other soft markets, the picture is bullish.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 

Attachments

Hi everyone,

Sorry for the seemingly late update, but the recent cot report was issued Monday night…The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Russel-2000
COT Change (52W) / C-30%, LS25%, SS-42% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-37%, LS-72% /
The large changes in positions are indicating a bullish move in prices, but let’s not forget about the cot extreme that we saw not long ago.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / LS-All Time extreme /
The extreme is still present and we can witness prices climbing higher this week.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / SS-All Time extreme /
The COT extreme is growing, stress levels are getting higher --> the picture is getting more and more bullish!


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C-26%, LS-25%, SS-24% /
The 26% change in commercial’s position was large + the fact that only small speculators are net long add up to a bearish picture. It would be nice, if all this was happening during a cot extreme, but it could still be a winning game.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-26% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-81%, LS-25%, SS-26% /
Although we are a bit away from those clearly large cot extremes, the ones that are close to all time levels, if we read the cot index (based on a three year lookback period), we can see that a relative extreme exists in this market. Together with the change signal, we can state that the picture today in crude oil is more bullish than bearish.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C-282 report, LS-279 report, SS-All Time /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0%, SS-0% /
The extreme is still widening in this market, and judging by the past similar cases, we are getting closer and closer to a nice bottom in prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Russel-2000
COT Change (52W) / C-44%, LS-45%, SS-34% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-9%, LS-95%, SS-78% /
The large changes, the extreme the COT Index shows us and the fact that only SS are long all give us a bearish picture.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C-85 report, LS-All Time /
We have an All Time COT Extreme in Large Speculators, a pretty significant extreme in Commercials also. Small Speculators could be a bit more extreme, but the general COT picture that we have today is a clear bearish picture.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C-283 report, LS-280 report, SS-All Time /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0%, SS-0% /
The extreme is still widening in this market, and judging by the past similar cases, we are getting closer and closer to a nice bottom in prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 

Attachments

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C-21%, SS-32% /
If we look at the 5 year chart of Copper, we can see that we don’t really have a clearly large COT extreme in the market. It is mainly the change size that could affect prices. As the review correctly suggests, if we look at a shorter time period, then we arrive at a relative extreme in the market. I have indicated the two last cases, when we had such a large extreme. I’m not saying that it is Copper that is the most exciting trade this week, but for anyone trading it regularly, it is wise to look at it this way.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C- All Time, LS-All Time /
The extreme we saw last week in AUD has widened more, now Commercials are at their All Time levels too. It is a definite bearish picture that we have.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / close to All Time level everywhere /
The extreme has stopped widening in this market, which could easily mean that we have reached the extreme --> we should be witnessing higher prices soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 

Attachments

Just a few biased observations:

In the E-Mini S&P ( ES ), look at the robust amount of spread trades reported by asset managers and institutions in comparison to the 'small speculator'. Speaks volumes.

In the grains ( CBOT ), and in the Nymex natural gas and refined petroleum products, there is also a significant level of spread trades reported by the large traders and institutions. And again, that level of participation in spread trading is quite weak in the 'small speculator' segment.
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-32%, LS-26%, SS-30% /
As Commercials are increasing their net short positions cotton prices start to incline – at least if we look at the past similar situations.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C-110 report, LS-All Time /
Large Speculators have reached an All Time extreme level, which seems to be a very nice bearish signal in this market.

Currencies: AUD, JPY, MXP
All Time / near All Time extremes in all of these markets!!

I wish all of you MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A VERY HAPPY (AND PROFITABLE :)) NEW YEAR!
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
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