Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C-31%, LS-32%, SS-13% /
COT Extreme / C-230, LS-255 /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-0%, LS-100%, SS-69% /
The near term picture looks bearish, since the more than 30% changes that we can witness in C and LS positions are stronger than average signals. In medium to longer term (let’s say up to 6-9 month), I don’t see such an extreme picture yet, that would suggest the end of this increase in prices that started in mid April.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-31%, LS-30% /
COT Extreme / C-281, LS-281 /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0% /
The COT report suggests that there could be an increase in cotton prices in the near term and even in medium-long term as well.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time /

Gold
COT Extreme / SS-All Time /

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 

Attachments

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Dow Jones-30
Vol/OI Total Score /-15/
COT Change (52W) / C-26%, LS-22%, SS-33% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-22%, LS-79% /
Although the Change signal was large and we can see some examples in the past, when prices reacted to it, what is concerning for me on the long side is the volume & open interest score and the COT extreme picture. Both of these are showing a bearish picture.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C-19%, LS-17%, SS-25 /
Another example, when the change signal is pointing in the opposite direction as the general picture. Two weeks ago there was a close to All Time extreme COT picture that was a strong sell signal and started to push prices lower. Last week’s COT change signal could stop that decline and even redirect prices to higher levels. It could easily be, that prices continue their rise for a few days, but the fact the LS are heavily exiting their net long positions is a warning signal.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time /
The picture has not changed, we could witness another All Time COT extreme this week. Stress levels are super high and this suggest a price decline soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Excellent analysis. Very good. Lots of money to be made, can't thank you enough..And it's all as an altruistic gesture towards trading community - well, who could believe..
I wonder why people don't give it a 5 star rating which it sure deserves. Ungrateful creatures!
 
Hi everyone,

(sorry for the late update, I was away for a couple of days…)

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-25%, LS-17%, SS-25% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-88%, LS-10% /
The 25% change in Commercials positions could be considered a stronger than average signal and as we can see it by now (Wednesday) prices have declined on it. On the other hand, the wider picture shows an extreme in the market pointing in the opposite direction, upwards.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-25% /
COT Extreme /SS-692report/
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-5%, LS-79%, SS-100% /
A great example of multiple COT signals --> COT change and the extreme are bearish signals. From all the signals this week, I would consider this one to be the best opportunity trade (close resistance level, great Risk/Reward trade).

Platinum
COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time /
We can see the prices have started to drop heavily, so anyone following these signals could have made some serious profits by now.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-55%, LS-43%, SS-32% /
It looks like I have to mention cotton again, because of the huge change size that happened! This time we can witness a 55% size change in Commercials positions. As the review says, this last two report’s changes pushed Commercials from long 20.000 contracts to short 20.000 contracts. Of course as we know by now, these changes could affect prices in the near term, but the longer term picture is still bullish. If we look at the 10 year chart we can see what happened to prices in the past when Commercials started to decrease their net long positions and go into deep short territories.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C-27%, LS-22%, SS-38% /
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-69%, LS-39%, SS-11% /
Whenever we have witnessed such changes in C-LS-SS positions in the past, they usually ended in a COT extreme that resulted in a bottom in prices. We still got some space left for this trend to continue and really get a COT extreme picture, so prices could continue their decline.

Platinum
After a couple of weeks of continuous All Time signals, market participants in Platinum have moved away from their extremes. As we can see it now, it was wise to follow this market, because it turned out to be again a valid example of how affective COT analysis really is. Looking at the past similar cases, we can expect prices to continue their decline.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-17%, SS-18% /
It looks like cotton is still on the “radar”. It is important to see the wider picture, the extreme in the market which still indicating a bullish picture. The risk/reward of such a trade could also be favorable now if you look at the chart.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-31%, SS-12% /
Large speculators have turned net short. Although the change signal is a bullish one, looking at all metal markets, the cot extreme that we could witness everywhere for the past couple of weeks suggest that the decline will continue.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme /SS-All Time/
COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-84%, LS-24%, SS-0% /
last week’s comment: Whenever we have witnessed such changes in C-LS-SS positions in the past, they usually ended in a COT extreme that resulted in a bottom in prices. We still got some space left for this trend to continue and really get a COT extreme picture, so prices could continue their decline.
We are getting close /or in case if Small Speculators, we are already there/ the extreme that – as the past examples show- should signal a relative bottom in prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
 
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