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Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
- Thread starter Dunstan
- Start date
Hi everyone,
Just wanted to update you on metals, which I have analyzed for you in my last post. It looks like prices have started to decline, so it could be that my assumption on the general bearish picture in metals was correct. As the examples brought to you, showed clearly that we are not at all time extreme levels everywhere, there where relative extremes, which in the past had the strength to effect prices. It’s not an easy play, but I guess the Risk/Reward of taking the recent report’s signals was(is?) pretty good.
All the best,
Dunstan
Just wanted to update you on metals, which I have analyzed for you in my last post. It looks like prices have started to decline, so it could be that my assumption on the general bearish picture in metals was correct. As the examples brought to you, showed clearly that we are not at all time extreme levels everywhere, there where relative extremes, which in the past had the strength to effect prices. It’s not an easy play, but I guess the Risk/Reward of taking the recent report’s signals was(is?) pretty good.
All the best,
Dunstan
Attachments
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
USD Index
Very large Change in positions of C and LS --> 58% and 62%. This signal together with the COT extreme picture (see attached chart) suggests a bullish move in prices.
Coffee
The COT change signal that we had here points in the opposite direction as what the COT extreme picture suggests, but of course we should know by now that while a change signal has a faster effect on prices – if at all – extremes give you a better understanding on the wider picture. In this case Commercials being net long – as the review says correctly – is a bullish signal. If you look at the COT index, we can see that it confirms this --> C at 87% and L at 14%.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
USD Index
Very large Change in positions of C and LS --> 58% and 62%. This signal together with the COT extreme picture (see attached chart) suggests a bullish move in prices.
Coffee
The COT change signal that we had here points in the opposite direction as what the COT extreme picture suggests, but of course we should know by now that while a change signal has a faster effect on prices – if at all – extremes give you a better understanding on the wider picture. In this case Commercials being net long – as the review says correctly – is a bullish signal. If you look at the COT index, we can see that it confirms this --> C at 87% and L at 14%.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
Attachments
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Cotton
COT Change / C-27%, LS-20%, SS-25% /
COT Index / C-88%, LS-10% /
The COT report suggests that there could be an increase in cotton prices in the near term and even in medium-long term as well.
Crude Oil
The change signal suggests a bullish move, but the general picture looks bearish.
British Pound
Small Speculators are at an All Time extreme level (their most optimistic mood ever), but also Commercials are heavily selling the market--> bearish picture.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).
Cotton
COT Change / C-27%, LS-20%, SS-25% /
COT Index / C-88%, LS-10% /
The COT report suggests that there could be an increase in cotton prices in the near term and even in medium-long term as well.
Crude Oil
The change signal suggests a bullish move, but the general picture looks bearish.
British Pound
Small Speculators are at an All Time extreme level (their most optimistic mood ever), but also Commercials are heavily selling the market--> bearish picture.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here