Florida RE bubble 1920's eerily similar to present day.

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Trend Fader:

Manhattan coops priced right are selling over the ask price. You are clueless about NYC. They have experienced 0% decline while the entire nation is a mess.

I'm clueless? I guess Trend Fader should rename himself Sheep Buying The Highs..

If there's a bear market in financial services then NYC prices will implode.

In the mid-70's when the Dow was mired at 600, co-ops on 5th Avenue were selling for 1920's prices. That's around the time when a taxi medallion was selling at parity to a NYSE seat.

Just the fact that housing bears will talk up Manhattan valuations tells me where the soft spot in the equation will be.

 

[domestic]

Quote from Neodude:

NYC prices have effected Jersey too. I was looking at some CO-OPS above Hoboken with a view of mid-town a couple months ago, the asking price for a one bedroom was 330k. This is for a place that was selling for no more then 180k 2-3 years ago.

I was willing to make an all cash offer of 250k, but they laughed in my face. Now I'm waiting for this damn market to come down so I can do the laughing. Asking such prices for swamp land in Jersey is insane.

-Neo

hoboken is sooo nice. my first cousin lives there. he bought a two bedroom for 379k 3 years ago. you will get your wish. this correction will be like a big ship turning....it is not instant.

ps pabst: fyi, even most of the "family " lives in ny/nj , i am firmly in connecticut.

 

[Covertibility]

Wow so the whole country is like the 1920's Florida RE bubble?

Today's MBA report pretty much sums up the problems. New foreclosures set record in latest MBA survey
California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona drive numbers up

According to the group's quarterly delinquency survey, a seasonally adjusted 0.65% of loans on one- to four-unit residential properties entered the foreclosure process during the period, the highest level in the survey's 55-year history. In the first quarter, when the previous record was set, 0.58% of loans entered the process; a year ago, 0.43% entered the process.

Driving the numbers were the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, said Doug Duncan, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president of research and business development, in a news release.

"Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings. Thirty-four states had decreases in their rates of new foreclosure and the increases were very modest in the states with increases, other than those four," Duncan said.
Duncan said there was a "clear divergence" in performance between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages because of the impact that rate resets have.

----------------

BusinessWeek had a "Map of Misery" last year which pretty much indicated that the problems in RE are really in those 4 states. The rest of the country can sail along. Yawners :eek:

 

[BoyBrutus]

What bubble

you guys want to see a bubble have a look at the UK and Australian property markets, in Oz realestate agents are walking around like superstars and making as much. You might as well put the sold sign up with the 'for sale' board. :eek:

 

[traderdragon2]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Bubble? By what criteria? [/B]

From Mike Morgans weekly website:

"This is a start in getting inventory under control, but it is not enough, when you consider 2-3 million foreclosures coming to market over the next 18 months and a huge inventory sitting idle in rentals. "

Lets see, Pabst says 200 people coming to florida a day. 2-3 million foreclosures in 18 months.

At that rate, it will only take 27 - 41 years for them to buy up all those foreclosures. Nah, couldnt possibly be a bubble

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from traderdragon2:

From Mike Morgans weekly website:

"This is a start in getting inventory under control, but it is not enough, when you consider 2-3 million foreclosures coming to market over the next 18 months and a huge inventory sitting idle in rentals. "

Lets see, Pabst says 200 people coming to florida a day. 2-3 million foreclosures in 18 months.

At that rate, it will only take 27 - 41 years for them to buy up all those foreclosures. Nah, couldnt possibly be a bubble

if correct on those 2-3 million and not a number he shot out his ass...that shows the magnitude of money that poured into the Florida market from total hype specualtion....considering 38% of the total 18 million we have here are either under 18 or over 65 we might really be looking at pop goes the weasel....but like pabst says..eventually it will find a floor considering it will now be a super bargain for others to absorb....

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

I don't consider a bunch of empty 225k homes sitting empty in a swap near Port Saint Lucie to be a "bubble." No more than I consider a good stock that gets frothy on a 4x multi-year advance and comes off a third to be a bubble.

The only poss "bubble" is Manhattan. When Wall Street contracts you'll be shocked at how hard it is to unload a 1.1m 1bd apartment on 3rd ave. Hell, in tough times it'll be hard to find folks who'll pay the assessments and taxes.....


Come to think of it: Many of those newly unemployed co-op dwellers will be moving into those unsold homes in Cape Coral......

Quote from traderdragon2:

From Mike Morgans weekly website:

"This is a start in getting inventory under control, but it is not enough, when you consider 2-3 million foreclosures coming to market over the next 18 months and a huge inventory sitting idle in rentals. "

Lets see, Pabst says 200 people coming to florida a day. 2-3 million foreclosures in 18 months.

At that rate, it will only take 27 - 41 years for them to buy up all those foreclosures. Nah, couldnt possibly be a bubble

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

There's only 8 million housing units in the whole state.

Not to sound snobby but I can't speak about communities off the beaten path. The areas I know and follow are all in close proximity to water. While there's undeniably MUCH supply, whenever I see a place "priced right" it sells quickly. 80% of the listings I see are what on the floor we called JIC orders. List it in case someone prints a highball.

Comparing a community of new Pulte homes to the Gables, SOBE, Palm Beach or Jupiter is like comparing South Bronx sub-prime woes to CPW. No analogy.....

Quote from traderdragon2:

From Mike Morgans weekly website:

"This is a start in getting inventory under control, but it is not enough, when you consider 2-3 million foreclosures coming to market over the next 18 months and a huge inventory sitting idle in rentals. "

Lets see, Pabst says 200 people coming to florida a day. 2-3 million foreclosures in 18 months.

At that rate, it will only take 27 - 41 years for them to buy up all those foreclosures. Nah, couldnt possibly be a bubble

 

[Toro KMA]

Florida is in a recession. The state budget is going to come in $2 billion less than expected. The reason is primarily because the real estate market has come to a grinding halt.

It does not matter what the comparative prices are in other places. Comparing FL real estate with NYC real estate is a false comparison. That's like comparing two stocks based on price. Simply because one stock is worth $100 and another stocks is worth $90 does not tell you if one or the other is over-valued. You have to look at earnings. And for real estate, you have to look at income. And many of the most overvalued MSAs in the country - relative to income - were in Florida.

There is no doubt that parts of Florida were in a bubble, in particular in the condo market where a speculative phase was fully underway.

No one knows how many units speculators bought. But as early as 2004, McCabe and Lew Goodkin of Miami-based Goodkin Consulting warned that up to 70 percent of the condos rising in Miami were being snapped up by people who didn't plan to hold on to them, much less live in them.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-condobust2707aug27,0,1813434.story

Now, thousands of investors are trapped and are going to get killed speculating in condos.

As a preview of what is coming, in Panama City, something like 98% of buyers of beach front property over the past five years did not apply for homestead exemption, i.e. it wasn't their primary residents. Now, there is a ton of inventory on the market, and it ain't moving.

Oh, and people are leaving the state.

 

[trefoil]

I know squat about Fla. However, the idea that the cold NE cities are going down is just nutty.
Chicago is doing OK, NYC is doing just fine so far, even Baltimore is doing OK, far as I can see, as I just took The Boy down to Hopkins for freshman year. It looks like a town that had bad times but is renovating itself block by block. (Besides which it's got Charm City Cakes. All I have to do is make sure I get my order in in time for The Boy's graduation.)
NYC and NY state have two things going for them that most people don't realize: in the city, RE taxes are low because most of it is paid by industry, and the state of NY recognizes S corporations for state tax purposes, something that isn't true in NJ, for instance. Which probably goes a long way towards explaining why NY always seems to have so many small businesses in it.
Don't believe me? Go to the Empire State building and ride the elevator, not to the Observation Deck, but to one of the regular floors. It's packed with guys running businesses, and all you hear in the elevators is gossip between them about how they're doing.