"Flipped In Florida" - For Sale Sign On Almost Every Other Home

Quote from Trend Fader:

This whole national housing melt down is a big joke. Yes there will be poor areas that will get hurt,, but prime areas like manhattan are still thriving. Check out this building in manhattan.. its been on the market for 3 days and is already 20% sold out. Prices are starting at $2mil. Brokers there have no issues moving units like these priced around $2k per sq ft. As long as unemployment stays low, mortgage rates are low ( i am talking about the majority of prime borrowers) and the stock market doesnt crash - housing will thrive in most strong metro markets, especially like NYC.

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Green building, LEEDs certified. A huge marketing edge, perfect for those spoiled trust fund babies looking to do nice things for the environment. Rich ppl, not working people, cause unemployment is at least double what the reports are telling you.

The fact that it was not quickly snatched up like the Solaire prior to even being completed only shows that Manhattan is hurting and has been hurting. Solaire is rentals, but they were all booked up prior to completion, 20-30% premium rents over your next luxury building and with a long waiting list.
2-3 years ago, these condos would have been almost all sold out without even the model floor being completed. Now you are looking at 20% with half the building complete. The developer is not too happy, that building is expensive and $2k a foot is the low end of what he should charge considering how much more expensive construction is nowdays. 2 years ago he could have gotten $2.5k a foot.

Housing is not thriving here, condos are not selling, that's why they are quickly being turned into hotels. The Manhattan, and even Astoria, Long Island, Brooklyn real estate markets all pulled a quick turn in 2006. Downside is limited, but then you never know.
 
Hydro, you're right and that was my point. Those are unique properties that are selling well still. It's not the norm and more and more builders are stuck turning some units into "hotel rooms" or "rentals."

...and much of the ridiculous buying in the city has reportedly come from Wall Streeters moving up because of ridiculous bonuses and salary packages.

There are a few buildings going up near me, in Union Square, that I think are still not all sold. Union Square is probably the hippest area in the city to leave if you factor in transportation options. But I don't think they're sold out yet and they're almost done being built.

I wasn't here 2 years ago so I couldn't say for sure...but renting here is, AMAZINGLY, affordable compared to buying...especially if you throw in maintenance fees on top of the mortgage.
 
I think a lot of you are missing the point...Are ultra desirable places like manhattan and ocean front still in demand? Of course...always have and always will.....now, let's go to say..the rest of the country...it ain't looking good at all...Ameriquest just asked for somebody to buy them out!...but if the entire NAZ 100 is down 20% except for say 3 issues, I'd hardly hang my hat on the stock market and say it's not that bad.
 
Quote from stock777:

I'm waiting for blood in the streets, then maybe I take that garbage off your hands for 50% of what you paid

If I'm in a good mood
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there are too many people waiting to pick a bottom - these people will cause the "soft landing" in housing.

There are more homebuyers on the market each year as people keep making babies for some reason.... The demand for housing is semi-proportional to the rate of population growth. People that are calling for some housing doomsday are forgetting this...
 
Quote from krazykarl:

there are too many people waiting to pick a bottom - these people will cause the "soft landing" in housing.

There are more homebuyers on the market each year as people keep making babies for some reason.... The demand for housing is semi-proportional to the rate of population growth. People that are calling for some housing doomsday are forgetting this...
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Forgetting what? Because people are having kids is a great reason there will be less buyers, especially with inflated home prices...who can afford one? Especially in bubble areas, those are going to be the root of the burst.

Also, if you factor in tighter lending standards being implemented, you have a lot of first time homebuyers who are going to be squeezed right out of the market who could have bought in last year or the year before no problem. Plus, higher prices will make these first time buyers even less likely to be able to afford.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

there are too many people waiting to pick a bottom - these people will cause the "soft landing" in housing.

There are more homebuyers on the market each year as people keep making babies for some reason.... The demand for housing is semi-proportional to the rate of population growth. People that are calling for some housing doomsday are forgetting this...
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Not to be argumentative...but have you been reading the reports on housing???? 'doomsday' is here right now...people make lots of babies in the inner cities but they don't buy a lot of houses do they? while I agree long term that housing will recover, MANY of these same families having kids that need to buy a home, have now been cut out of the RE market due to 1) prices 2) taxes and 3) THE SUB PRIME BLOW OUT , which means creative loans are not available for them.
 
We've never had a soft landing in housing, and never will.

Everyone was talking about England's soft landing for years.

Guess what? There's an article in The Economist this month about how that is likely to turn out to be a massive illusion. And Ireland and Spain are crashing now (down 15% and 20%, respectively).

Soft landings are things of fairy tales.


This is why we will see fed rate cuts soon. They will try to stop a housing-led recession.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

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This is why we will see fed rate cuts soon. They will try to stop a housing-led recession.
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Got to dissagree with you there......I think that they are gonna let the pain take its toll and make this mess work itself out
 
Quote from TM_Direct:

Got to dissagree with you there......I think that they are gonna let the pain take its toll and make this mess work itself out
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I pray they do...but I think the Fed is going cater to Wall St.(UUUUUUGGGGHHHHH) and cut rates...we'll see.

It will maybe prop stocks...won't work in the RE market though. It'll create a good crest of high optimism maybe to short from.
 
Higher than anticipated property taxes, energy costs and insurance are all bigger factors in this particular environment than the cost of money. However I'm short bond futures so I think rates will rise. Another potential nail in the coffin.

Home prices will fall enough that they wash out weak owners.
Not unlike the way futures (an equally leveraged "investment") rotate to levels where under capitalized speculators are forced to liquidate.

Happens all the time.

Lack of affordability is not in itself bearish. Some bright eyed optimists like to think that lack of affordability means the market will come to them. In reality the market will ultimately move away from them. Those who are long will be punished. Later those who are short (i.e. homeless) will be punished. Zen like, eh?

Ever see those shantytowns outside Rio, Sao Paulo and Caracas? America's future.........
 
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