Flip of a coin..but

Laissez Faire said:
Well, to clarify, I did say that these were statistics for days going from low to high by the close. You can call them low-high days for convenience.
More...
Gotcha!
It means that these stats are worthless because you don't know in advance if it's gonna be a low-high or high-low day.
It's like saying that the Bills have 80% chance of winning when they are leading after 3 quarters.
 
rb7 said:
Gotcha!
It means that these stats are worthless because you don't know in advance if it's gonna be a low-high or high-low day.
More...

Well, I have to disagree with that. If you know with very high probability that the day high/low is in by the first 90 minutes surely that's useful information. And who's to say that can't be predicted in advance...? Besides, a good trading model will always be updated intraday as the day progresses and new information is known.

In my experience most who say the market can't be predicted base that on trying to make a guess by looking at a chart and never took the trouble to even build a very basic predictive model.

I'm only scratching the surface of what I'm looking at personally, but I don't like to say more than I've done already.

I only made the initial post in this thread to demonstrate results that doesn't seem consistent with the theory of a randomly moving market to me. If so, you'd have the day high or low coming in at random times every single day. Something that clearly isn't the case.
 
It is almost 19 years old now (unless there is a later revised edition) but ...

How Markets Really Work / A Quantitative Guide to Stock Market Behavior by Larry Connors (2004)

... lays out how non-random markets are. Or continue to believe what you want.

Index
Market Edges
Short-Term Highs and Short-Term Lows
Higher Highs and Lower Lows
Up Days in a Row vs Down Days in a Row
Market Breadth
Volume
Large Moves
New 52-Week highs, New 52-Week Lows
Put/Call Ratio
Volatility Index
Using the Information in this book

That is as much as I will copy.
 
Last edited:
Just for the record, I trade based on price action that's pegged to the exchange open (London/Chicago). That indicates that I don't trade a purely random entry since there is consistent significant volume influx around that time compared to all other times

But still curious, can purely random entry work in the long run
 
Last edited:
hilmy83 said:
Just for the record, I trade based on price action that's pegged to the exchange open (London/Chicago). That indicates that I don't trade a purely random entry since there is significant volume influx around that time.
More...
I knew I liked you, lol.
What timeframe charts do you look at for those calls?
 
hilmy83 said:
Just for the record, I trade based on price action that's pegged to the exchange open (London/Chicago). That indicates that I don't trade a purely random entry since there is consistent significant volume influx around that time compared to all other times

But still curious, can purely random entry work in the long run
More...
Likely it can work .... randomly - if that is your pleasure. I prefer not.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top