Flip of a coin..but

hilmy83 said:
lol. Right, i meant to say like playing an online session with multiple tables at the same time.
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Odds don't change no matter how many tables you are playing. They are the same for every table. The variables at each table are how many players there are, and how many are bluffing at any given point in time. Because pot-odds are static.
 
hilmy83 said:
lol. Right, i meant to say like playing an online session with multiple tables at the same time.
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Like super-tourney mode... in 10 tables at a time. IDK, I prefer a cozy home game; ~5 handed no-limit quarter/fifty¢. You know, chilling out and having some fun.
 
spy said:
Like super-tourney mode... in 10 tables at a time. IDK, I prefer a cozy home game; ~5 handed no-limit quarter/fifty¢. You know, chilling out and having some fun.
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You want real fun, try some Limit Omaha. I think that game is way more fun and strategic than the worn-out Texas hold-em.
 
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Overnight said:
You want real fun, try some Limit Omaha. I think that game is way more fun and strategic than the worn-out Texas hold-em.
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I might actually just prefer a limit game tbh, but no-limit seems to be what people love. Whenever I play in a dealers choice I like to call 5-card progressive jacks or better and see what happens. I'm a little bit of a nut though... I know the vol sucks and so the sadist/masochist in me wants to crank it and see what happens (to the opponents obv); unfortunately it's a knife that cuts both ways.
 
spy said:
I might actually just prefer a limit game tbh, but no-limit seems to be what people love. Whenever I play in a dealers choice I like to call 5-card progressive jacks or better and see what happens. I'm a little bit of a nut though... I know the vol sucks and so the sadist/masochist in me wants to crank it and see what happens (to the opponents obv); unfortunately it's a knife that cuts both ways.
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Limit Omaha gets just as nutty as Texas no-limit. Think of it as compounding your trading account, because that is exactly what it is.
 
How ironic would it be to win the trading competition based on random entries?

If I win it and get interviewed, i'm gonna shit all over TA...ooh that would be so good :D
 
hilmy83 said:
Did some weekend backtests:

Took the 1st minute opening range of the ES. Using neutral entry (first hit) fading vs breakout of that range with 1:1 RR, yields 50% success rate for both.

At the very basic level, there is a 50/50 chance that a price will close either way on the next bar. My current strategy is anticipating the breakout off the opening range (at some point). But the problem is when you get into consecutive losses, you're pretty much will revert back to 50/50 chance. You can do things like smaller/bigger targets, scalin in , martingale, to skew the EV.

There are so many papers that support brownian motion for these financial markets.

In fact just made these using random() function in excel. I'm pretty sure i can fool somebody into creating a technical analysis on these charts.

View attachment 303288

View attachment 303290

View attachment 303291



So where am i going with this. Basically I think trading is mostly bullshit lol. If I'm going to play the random game, I might as well play the mean reversion with scalin in. If anything that these charts show, is that there will be some kind of retracement. No lines jsut go straight up/down, MOST of the time.

But you will have days like this (MES 12/22/22)

View attachment 303292

But if you use b/e stops and scale in, and manage your risk with smaller position (to give room) you can "potentially" avoid gettting fucked in the ass..

What do you think guys?
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Hi,

if I may ask, what made you come to the conclusion that markets are random?
hilmy83 said:
Did some weekend backtests:

Took the 1st minute opening range of the ES. Using neutral entry (first hit) fading vs breakout of that range with 1:1 RR, yields 50% success rate for both.

At the very basic level, there is a 50/50 chance that a price will close either way on the next bar. My current strategy is anticipating the breakout off the opening range (at some point). But the problem is when you get into consecutive losses, you're pretty much will revert back to 50/50 chance. You can do things like smaller/bigger targets, scalin in , martingale, to skew the EV.

There are so many papers that support brownian motion for these financial markets.

In fact just made these using random() function in excel. I'm pretty sure i can fool somebody into creating a technical analysis on these charts.

View attachment 303288

View attachment 303290

View attachment 303291



So where am i going with this. Basically I think trading is mostly bullshit lol. If I'm going to play the random game, I might as well play the mean reversion with scalin in. If anything that these charts show, is that there will be some kind of retracement. No lines jsut go straight up/down, MOST of the time.

But you will have days like this (MES 12/22/22)

View attachment 303292

But if you use b/e stops and scale in, and manage your risk with smaller position (to give room) you can "potentially" avoid gettting fucked in the ass..

What do you think guys?
More...

Hi hilmy83,

If I may ask, what made you come to the conclusion that markets are random?
 
smallAxe said:
Hi,

if I may ask, what made you come to the conclusion that markets are random?


Hi hilmy83,

If I may ask, what made you come to the conclusion that markets are random?
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Just google brownian motion and financial markets. There are many studies proving prices are random.

First post I just showed random charts using random function. If i put those next to real charts, nobody can tell a difference.

Or just watch this video. at 10:12, he (quant dev) talks about random behavior of price in the short term.


I have people debating that long term price is not random, that's why asset prices in the stock market rise over time.
Ok great, then go ahead and invest.

But I also argued, looking at stock market of the last 200-300 years is a very small sample size when you compare that to relative existence of how long we've been around in this world.

Anyway..just read the thread and you'll find out why.
 
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