Flip of a coin..but
- Thread starter hilmy83
- Start date
The more you zoom in, the more random it is.
There's nothing random about saying the indices go up over the long-term. There's nothing random about the indices going down when the Fed announces a rate hike.
But if you zoom in to tick trading, then it becomes very random.
There's nothing random about saying the indices go up over the long-term. There's nothing random about the indices going down when the Fed announces a rate hike.
But if you zoom in to tick trading, then it becomes very random.
Yes but that's on a small scale.
A 401k is long-term, where indices always go up.
In the 2300, the S&P may be at 100,000.
Yea I agree with that. I did mention trading as the context of the discussion.
But what if, in the grand scheme of things, the stock market is random. Honestly, how long has our stock market existed for? Relative to our existence, it's pretty short history. Just a snippet of a lucky streaks of heads...
It's a place for people to keep money when they lack better options. This is a constant force trying to push it up. Unless something crazy happens like bond prices going very high like we've seen lately. I think it would take an planet-killing asteroid to stop it.
Now, the latter statement is utter nonsense. You can't generate profits from purely random price series, not even in the absence of execution related cost. That is mathematically simply not possible. Over many trades that like claiming you can make money by playing roulette. You would not even if there was no house advantage. Or let me generalize to be more precise: one of your betting paths might even by pure chance turn out to be profitable. However that only represents one single evolution of probabilistic outcomes. If you would repeat the game and play again 100 rounds the outcome would be completely different. If you repeated that experiment many times you would end up with a pnl close to zero, in the absence of any house advantage or cost to play.
Strictly speaking placing a bet on anything is making a prediction/forecast, even if you think you are trend following you still forecast the trend to continue which might turn out to be true or not.
Strictly speaking placing a bet on anything is making a prediction/forecast, even if you think you are trend following you still forecast the trend to continue which might turn out to be true or not.
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