May have answered my own question,for today anyway.We are now in the red having dropped rapidly from 1384.If i had gone short 1383 i would now be 9 points to the good so far.Interestingly,1384.4 is 0.618% from fridays close-todays high so far was 1383.9,so a fib right at medium term resistance.Funny ole world innit? Meanwhile another potential decision is brewing, if we drop to 1364 today should i buy it? My system says yes.
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Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash
- Thread starter mitsubishi
- Start date
Had i shorted 1383 into todays close i would have lost and now 1383 is support with resistance at 1410. Anyway,i decided to take advantage of the missed opportunity to go long on fridays weak close by buying the dip today and i am long at 1376.6 into fridays close.If that was a revenge trade for missing out on shorting 1383 into todays close,it was a very patient revenge trade! (at the time i couldn't know 1383 short was a loser).The next twist in this new chapter was when we hit 1383 in later trading- why didn't i go short there?. The simple truth is you cannot bet on the close in the last 90 minutes of trading with the 'double up/down' bet so it was out of my hands-we hit 1383 again shortly after 2.30pm. Another thought has occurred to me is that backtesting only gives you a result based on the parameters you set. What i mean is at this moment in time,1383 is now support but could become resistance again tomorrow whereas in backtesting you have the benefit of hindsite to determine the continuation or breaking/reversing of trend. This is what i was alluding to this morning when i said that trading a mechanical system live going forward is very different to papertrading/testing a system on historical data.
And then there is the issue of those predicted price patterns as to whether i should consider them in this system.Take today for example.I said that we would be sideways from late morning into the close which is why i was reluctant to short 1383 as i thought we would close around there,which we did.But by late morning we had slipped into the red around 1374 in which case we could have spent all day sideways at the lows. So,in using a mechanical system should a trader exercise any amount of discretion or not? Nagging at the back of my mind is the belief that those of you who are long term consistent winners are using your experience that gives you the instincts to know when to break your trading rules. I remember reading about a young trader in the city (London) who made £80k in a few minutes going long on the bobal during an interest rate announcement purely based on the fact that during the speech the word 'caution' was not mentioned.Not sure exactly how this ties into my trading but maybe you get the gist of what i'm talking about.Still one thing doesn't change,this market game eats up mental energy like nothing else i have ever experienced.
Many traders when asked what they like best about trading say money,freedom.But one of the things i find most enjoyable is researching and backtesting ideas and of course you need the freedom of time to pursue that which i do have.I will be a lot further down the road when the result of research produces consistent profits though.
In a way i feel funny about dumping most of what i have learned in favour of a simple s/r red light green light system,but at least i can summarise my stategy in 2 or 3 sentences which is probably a good thing,and i am not the first or last trader to end up with a kiss strategy.Maybe everything i have learned plus the screen hours will all amalgamate into the instinct that will tell me when to break the rules occasionaly.Dunno, but i feel fit and lean and ready to continue with the quest so we'll see.
And then there is the issue of those predicted price patterns as to whether i should consider them in this system.Take today for example.I said that we would be sideways from late morning into the close which is why i was reluctant to short 1383 as i thought we would close around there,which we did.But by late morning we had slipped into the red around 1374 in which case we could have spent all day sideways at the lows. So,in using a mechanical system should a trader exercise any amount of discretion or not? Nagging at the back of my mind is the belief that those of you who are long term consistent winners are using your experience that gives you the instincts to know when to break your trading rules. I remember reading about a young trader in the city (London) who made £80k in a few minutes going long on the bobal during an interest rate announcement purely based on the fact that during the speech the word 'caution' was not mentioned.Not sure exactly how this ties into my trading but maybe you get the gist of what i'm talking about.Still one thing doesn't change,this market game eats up mental energy like nothing else i have ever experienced.
Many traders when asked what they like best about trading say money,freedom.But one of the things i find most enjoyable is researching and backtesting ideas and of course you need the freedom of time to pursue that which i do have.I will be a lot further down the road when the result of research produces consistent profits though.
In a way i feel funny about dumping most of what i have learned in favour of a simple s/r red light green light system,but at least i can summarise my stategy in 2 or 3 sentences which is probably a good thing,and i am not the first or last trader to end up with a kiss strategy.Maybe everything i have learned plus the screen hours will all amalgamate into the instinct that will tell me when to break the rules occasionaly.Dunno, but i feel fit and lean and ready to continue with the quest so we'll see.
I am long at 1382.8 into the close.The entry time was 10.10am.Although we have dropped a bit since then my strategy dictates that since yesterday closed above 1383 resistance 1383 should be support.Having said that the predicted pattern today is for an early decline and very shallow drop from 10.30 to 2.30 and sideways from there,but since these patterns evolve and dont repeat like carbon copies i am sticking to the mechanical strategy.
With business concluded for the day since i am unlikely to make another trade today some fibonacci observations so far :
Intraday high -1389.8 intraday low 1381.0 (its around 11.30am now)
yesterdays low -1373.0 +0.618%= 1381.4
todays high -1389.8-0.618% = 1381.2
open - 1375.9+0.382%= 1381.1
since hitting the low we bounced to 1385 but are heading towards the low again
Intraday high -1389.8 intraday low 1381.0 (its around 11.30am now)
yesterdays low -1373.0 +0.618%= 1381.4
todays high -1389.8-0.618% = 1381.2
open - 1375.9+0.382%= 1381.1
since hitting the low we bounced to 1385 but are heading towards the low again
A comfortable win today (long 1382.8 into the close) with an outstanding long at 1376.6 into fridays close looking ok so far.My next trade is to buy 1383 again if we drop there or sell 1410.Apart from that i will sell before the close on friday into the following friday if we end on the weekly high (or buy if its the weekly low).Mentally i'm in a good place,having removed so many variables from the decision making,and one of betonmarkets biggest edges against me - picking both direction and exit time intraday.Also i am not trying so hard to predict,but rather let the market tell me which way it's going.I am wondering why it has taken so long for me to arrive at this point,but i guess it proves what most successful traders will tell you.The biggest obstacle to success is not the strategy but yourself.
Sat on my hands all day today and it was difficult.With the first trade of a new strategy winning and my long (1376.6) into fridays close looking reasonably safe,i knew doing nothing today would not spoil a perfect record this week.We needed to hit 1410 today for me to go short but we didn't.For my weekly bet,we would need to hit the weeks high tomorrow for me to go short into next friday.
I am considering other strategies but last time i veered off my plan of action i started having more losers so they could be on the backburner for a while as i am determined to try and run this more like a business.
But i couldn't help noticing today a very good setup for finding entries in the dips of this current uptrend.It's not something i haven't looked at before but its the first time i have papertraded it going forward.In attempting to buy higher lows consider this:
tues low- 1373.0 ( 1373.0+ 0.382% = 1378.2 ) weds low- 1378.1 ( 1378.1+ 0.764% = 1388.6 )
thurs low- 1388.5
The more people who say fibs dont work,the more i like them.Really wanted to buy 1388.5 into the close today but couldn't bring myself to go off message so soon.The next temptation like a snake in the garden of eden was to short 1400 that 'line in the sand' number but i had a strong feeling it would break through,which it did.The predicted pattern showed a sharp drop around 1.45pm so that helped me let 1400 go.The last magnet for my attention was 1406 near the 2.30pm zone.If the prediction was going to be right surely we would drop at a known price turning zone?. It dropped pretty quick as i was thinking about it and i cant place a bet after 2.30pm for the same days close.I just kept telling myself you're winning this week ,just let it go.Normally,i would ignore that and trade anyway.I let 3 potential winners go today but stuck to the plan-which is more important? It will be easier next time cos you just know the next trade would be more likely to be a loser anyway after letting go 3 winners.Greed and fear.Greed for wanting to do the trades and fear of seeing them lose when i know i shouldn't touch them.I won that battle today,but christ it's like groundhog day everyday.
I am considering other strategies but last time i veered off my plan of action i started having more losers so they could be on the backburner for a while as i am determined to try and run this more like a business.
But i couldn't help noticing today a very good setup for finding entries in the dips of this current uptrend.It's not something i haven't looked at before but its the first time i have papertraded it going forward.In attempting to buy higher lows consider this:
tues low- 1373.0 ( 1373.0+ 0.382% = 1378.2 ) weds low- 1378.1 ( 1378.1+ 0.764% = 1388.6 )
thurs low- 1388.5
The more people who say fibs dont work,the more i like them.Really wanted to buy 1388.5 into the close today but couldn't bring myself to go off message so soon.The next temptation like a snake in the garden of eden was to short 1400 that 'line in the sand' number but i had a strong feeling it would break through,which it did.The predicted pattern showed a sharp drop around 1.45pm so that helped me let 1400 go.The last magnet for my attention was 1406 near the 2.30pm zone.If the prediction was going to be right surely we would drop at a known price turning zone?. It dropped pretty quick as i was thinking about it and i cant place a bet after 2.30pm for the same days close.I just kept telling myself you're winning this week ,just let it go.Normally,i would ignore that and trade anyway.I let 3 potential winners go today but stuck to the plan-which is more important? It will be easier next time cos you just know the next trade would be more likely to be a loser anyway after letting go 3 winners.Greed and fear.Greed for wanting to do the trades and fear of seeing them lose when i know i shouldn't touch them.I won that battle today,but christ it's like groundhog day everyday.
No groundhog day syndrome today because trading has been exactly as expected according to the predicted pattern which called for a tight range sideways choppy market with no real conviction on either side.In that environment and hoping to sell this weeks high into next friday it occurred to me that next week the high could come on monday and close the week lower.With that in mind and looking to sell 1410 resistance i will wait for monday.Will be doing some more research on buying dips in an uptrend at fib ratios (or selling highs in a downtrend ).Pleased with my trading this week,good discipline and trading results 1376.6 long into tonights close almost certain to win.
Another plan for the future is to move onto binary betting using the daily and weekly bets only (most other bets are more risky) see http://www.binarybet.com So i would have been looking to buy the weekly up bet after last fridays close.One snag is there are no bets on spx only dow/naz but i will mull over that over the next few weeks before i get into binaries.With binaries you get the advantage of fixed odds (fixed risk) but the advantages of spreadbets- get in and out immediately,take profit/loss early,scale in/out etc. And from my point of view take a bet on an outcome based on direction - the day/week will end up/down or it wont.
This is the carrot i am using to keep me disciplined and focused on my strategy while accepting that there are less opportunities to trade (i have made no trades for 2 days running now) In the meantime i will papertrade the binaries to reaquaint myself with them-oh yeah, i've lost a few quid in the past on them but the return match will be more even handed this time.
The biggest difference i am noticing with my trading now is that i am waiting for the market to come to me,rather than chasing it and spending most of my time trying to get my money back.Gotta say,the more i practice doing nothing,the easier it becomes,so far anyway.Maybe i was trying too hard before,with less decisions to make there is less stress and maybe fewer mistakes.I'm convinced that if i fail in trading it wont be the strategy it will be the patience,discipline and money management issues,so it is totally in my own hands-unlike the market.
Another plan for the future is to move onto binary betting using the daily and weekly bets only (most other bets are more risky) see http://www.binarybet.com So i would have been looking to buy the weekly up bet after last fridays close.One snag is there are no bets on spx only dow/naz but i will mull over that over the next few weeks before i get into binaries.With binaries you get the advantage of fixed odds (fixed risk) but the advantages of spreadbets- get in and out immediately,take profit/loss early,scale in/out etc. And from my point of view take a bet on an outcome based on direction - the day/week will end up/down or it wont.
This is the carrot i am using to keep me disciplined and focused on my strategy while accepting that there are less opportunities to trade (i have made no trades for 2 days running now) In the meantime i will papertrade the binaries to reaquaint myself with them-oh yeah, i've lost a few quid in the past on them but the return match will be more even handed this time.
The biggest difference i am noticing with my trading now is that i am waiting for the market to come to me,rather than chasing it and spending most of my time trying to get my money back.Gotta say,the more i practice doing nothing,the easier it becomes,so far anyway.Maybe i was trying too hard before,with less decisions to make there is less stress and maybe fewer mistakes.I'm convinced that if i fail in trading it wont be the strategy it will be the patience,discipline and money management issues,so it is totally in my own hands-unlike the market.
I am long into the close at 1389.3.Todays predicted pattern shows a reversal from the early low. Fridays low -1398.0 - 0.618%= 1389.3 Fridays close -1400.3 - 0.764%= 1389.6
LONG 1384.8 into todays/fridays close.Buying near medium term support (1383) todays low so far is around -1.000% from fridays low 1398.0-1.000%=1384.0 (todays low 1384.8)
I am long 1382.2 into weds close,trying to buy medium term support. Also long 1379.3 1.40pm to 3.50pm (taking advantage of lower commission by not betting on the close)