Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash

1 winner 1 loser leaves me breakeven with an outstanding long at 1409.4 into tomorrows close which at the moment looks ok.Best information is we are holding 1410 support and 1438 is still resistance,but i am feeling more bearish now.Will just have to trade 1 day at a time until the market shows it's hand-as usual.The account stands at +£25.
 
3 trades 1 loser 2 winners and with a previous long into weds close (1409.4) losing due to commission,the account remains at +£25. Bored. I got the being bored with trading down pat (as apposed to the 'excitement' of gambling) but it's like pulling teeth trying to increase the account size.Suppose i should be glad i haven't blown out so far.To be honest,it's not the boredom its the dentistry that's bugging me.I think part of the problem is i am veering off the original strategy which was to concentrate on the close rather than betting on intraday direction.Last time i used fixed odds one of the lessons was less = more and i think thats true again this time so that's probably the answer.
This journal is helping me but is probably boring for you guys.The problem is my trading doesn't suck bad enough to fade me and i'm not worth shadowing either!.Anyway,i was daydreaming about doubling my account by friday or topping meself live on the internet (told you i was bored-that'll look good on my headstone!) So (if?) there are any latent suicidals out there feel free to use my idea as it's not subject to copyright
 
are you flat going into the weekend? The uptrend is dead in my opinion.

Question now is the SPX going into a trading range or straight down back to 1300 area.
 
Quote from jgold310:

are you flat going into the weekend? The uptrend is dead in my opinion.

Question now is the SPX going into a trading range or straight down back to 1300 area.
More...


Yeah, i'm flat i wouldn't consider buying until we hit 1364 support,but i agree with you we are going much lower soon.I switched to bearish when we closed under 1410.This mornings attempt to buy 1383 support nearly worked but in hindsite wasn't worth the risk.Like you,i am trying to figure out if we will go sideways,maybe at 1364.Trouble is you always think what is most obvious is unlikely to work because of the way the market works against the majority,but at other times you should do the obvious.At one point this afternoon around 2.30pm i thought we might scrape a rally when everyone least expected it but glad i didn't back that horse.
 
yeap that 1365 area better hold, I think it might.

The DOW's low today was the top of a gap from april 15-16, hopefully after this gap is filled it will come back up. I'm watching to see if it will fill and bounce back.

There is also a gap on the S&P on the same days but for some reason it does not show up in some charts I've seen. Since it is only 7 points I'm not sure it is worth watching.
 
Quote from jgold310:

yeap that 1365 area better hold, I think it might.

The DOW's low today was the top of a gap from april 15-16, hopefully after this gap is filled it will come back up. I'm watching to see if it will fill and bounce back.

There is also a gap on the S&P on the same days but for some reason it does not show up in some charts I've seen. Since it is only 7 points I'm not sure it is worth watching.
More...

I don't consider gaps at all so i can't add anything constructive on that.Presumably though a gap could be filled without reversing? particlarly if it's not a key technical level.
 
Todays predicted pattern is likely to be sideways from late morning and since we are at 1383 resistance i would say we are likely to close around that level,therefore i am reluctant to short into the close.Having done some research over the extended weekend i have decided that i will only go long or short into the close from medium term support/resistance and not place any other types of bets.Too often,you can get direction right but to try and predict an exit time intraday,gives betonmarkets an edge against you.This means paying around 2.5 points commision on the 'double up/down' bet rather than 0.02% on the 'intraday up/down' but i think i will do better overall.The only other bet i will make is a weekly bet,entering just before close on friday and closing on the following fridays close.Statistically the weekly high/low is likely to be on monday or friday.This would mean i would have bought around 1375 last friday into this coming friday.(last weeks low was 1373.7,near the close on friday).This would work well if 1383 becomes support this week.If friday had seen the weeks high,then i would have gone short.With these 2 bets-intraday to close and weekly bet, i will increase the stake after a losing bet.In order to do this i am rounding up the account size to £500.I did not consider pivots and fibs in backtesting so i wont use them in this strategy but if they happen to coincide with the entry price that's a bonus.Neither did i consider the predicted patterns in backtesting so maybe i should have shorted 1383 since i am much happier with a mechanical system which i am convinced works better with fixed odds trading.I am still mulling over that one today.I think if i was already long from friday close i might already be short 1383 today,but since this is a new strategy i am (overly) agonising over my first trade.You guys know only too well,the difference between backtesting and real time trading-the mind plays tricks!Would really appreciate some honest feedback from experienced players here at this point.Those who have followed my journal know i'm a good listener.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top