There's a strong possibility we have seen the low there for today around 1342.If i am wrong we are going lower all the way to the middle of the day.I will probably just sit this one out and let yesterdays bet expire UPDATE 10.49- OK just for amusements sake this is a long shot 1356-58 around mid day (12.30)
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Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash
- Thread starter mitsubishi
- Start date
I am glad i just sat on the sidelines today and let my bet win rather than gambling on any kind of reversal.So i end the week £10 up.If you think about it,things actually went the way you would expect with the GE story,1364 support turning to resistance and its a friday.Bet a lot more things come crawling out of the woodwork before we reach the bottom of the bear.
I am long from 1331.9 at 10 am to 11am. I am betting we have seen the low for today based on last time this pattern appeared.I made a study over the weekend of counting fibonacci hours from recent highs/lows and found that there is a cluster on the close today which may (or may not) mean we see a significant turn near todays close or early on tuesday
I have added a long around 10.40am at 1331.2 into weds close we did drop a bit since i placed the previous bet to almost the 1327 medium term support but we seem to be bouncing from there with conviction.
In trading you can be right and lose money or wrong and make money.Today i was wrong and made money because at the time i placed my bet i thought we had seen the days low but we dropped to 1327 medium term support twice today,just managing to stay above there at the close.There wasn't much conviction for most of the day except for the strong bounce from the morning low to the high of the day and the fact that we closed above 1327.I mentioned this morning that i think we are due a cycle turn around the close today and its interesting that 1327 was so close to 4pm.I have an outstanding long into weds close so i have already decided (for now)that the market is going to climb on the earnings reports,though i have a bad feeling about this one!
Ten minutes after the open and the predicted patten looks on target as last time it appeared there was a markup at the open and we drifted higher all day closing on the high.If this pattern stays on target,(as we have already a strong open) the shorts at 1327 are now trapped and that cycle turn i mentioned yesterday will have some meaning.As things stand now,i will look to go long somewhere.
I have placed 2 longs- 10.30-2.30 (1328.5) and 1330.2 into the close which was placed a little earlier before we dropped under the pivot (1330.0)
I have now turned my position round and i'm short from 1326.0 and i increased the stake to £20 in an attempt to cancel out the 2 longs and give me a profit -hopefully
Today was not an ideal day to change my mind and turn my position around.Neither was it a good idea to increase the stake compounding the error.My 2 longs won bringing my balance to +£25 and the short wiped out £20. Lesson today trade your plan and stick to it.If theres a second lesson to be learned it's selling near the intraday low always makes you feel like a rank amateur.(add a w to some of the letters in 'rank amateur')Today was tricky to read (except in hindsite) which is even more reason to avoid increasing risk.As to my cycle theory,if we keep going up from here,with 1327 support now comfortably behind us,then it could be correct-too early to tell and with volume really low again,either some conviction or capitulation is required.I still have an outstanding long (1331.2) into weds close which is looking better than it did yesterday.All in all not a disaster,but i will make the losing bet pay in kind- by learning something from it.
I am feeling vindicated on my cycle turn call from monday close-1328.3,tues close 1334.4 and so far today we have seen 1354 so my 1331 long into the close today looks good.The only way i will make a trade today is if we see a long drop to 2.30pm,i would buy there,but otherwise i wouldnt like to make a bet on the close today long or short from here.