Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash

If my theory for today is correct,and it may be wishfull thinking since i am long into the close at 1364.5,the shorts at 1364 are sitting in a bear trap.Todays predicted pattern is a trending day which i need to be long.A spanner in the works is that futures are mixed,well ok they are red except for the naz.Last time the pattern appeared there was a markup and a slow grind up all day,hence the bear trap.A clue to this theory is the quick move yesterday afternoon from the low 1360.6 through to 1366.5 which was hopefully the smart money.An alternative scenario is an early test of yesterdays lows and a reversal all day into the close
 
Last throw of the dice for my long case-1360.5 expires at 3.50 pm today the bet opened at 10.40 am.Its around yesterdays low and pivot S-1 and -0.382% from yesterdays close.If i am wrong i will be wrong by a long way as the trend will be down all day
 
I have got the long case wrong i think we will grind slowly down all day so i am turning my position around and am placing 2 shorts from 11.40 - 12.40 and 11.40- 2.30. (the price was 1354.3)I may place further bets if we get a retrace
 
I have just added to the position short 1352.3 from 1-2pm and 1-3pm.Either this all works out or you can accuse me of overtrading,but i wont do anything further now i will just let it play out.If i lose i will lose going long and short-quite an achievment but it's my own fault for not going short much earlier and i would be sitting pretty now.
 
I had second thoughts,i must admit i had second thoughts.I eventually spotted who was the mug at the table (hello).I heard a guru once said 'when you see weakness,just keep selling' so i did just keep selling-another 7 shorts placed at various times,2 were for double stakes(which won),ending with 5 winners/2 losers for a total profit of £25.Allowing for my 2 losing longs (one today and from yesterday)and 2 previous losers, the account is now £5 in profit.The highest i shorted from was 1356.6 at 2pm.Better late coming to the selling party rather than being stubborn.If the market can turn on a dime,then i can turn on a dollar!I know i said i would leave it after the last post,but since i knew the predicted path was a one way street i think i did the right thing,especially since the 4 bets i originally posted were 2 winners 2 losers so i would have been £20 in the red-the end justifies the means.As i suspected,with fixed odds you really need to press an advantage and increase the stakes when you are losing if experience tells you to do it.Tonights beer will be a celebration rather,than a consolation.Lesson no 2 today-when you're wrong admit it as soon as possible,then capitalize on it.
 
thanks for your journal. it made take a new look at my old beton-account, which i had almost forgotten. these flash bets are interesting, i feel tempted to code something.
 
Quote from andyen:

thanks for your journal. it made take a new look at my old beton-account, which i had almost forgotten. these flash bets are interesting, i feel tempted to code something.
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Thanks andy,glad to hear that - let me know if you make any money!
 
Quote from andyen:

thanks for your journal. it made take a new look at my old beton-account, which i had almost forgotten. these flash bets are interesting, i feel tempted to code something.
More...

how would you do that. I am thinking fixed option models.
 
Quote from Mup:

Are you using intraday Delta (wilder) as mention you inversions..??

:)
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Dunno about wilder as i know that his theory has some flaws and intraday rules are complex (so i heard) plus i was never prepared to pay for someone elses research,preferring to trust my own.Having said that i did subscribe to trader toms market maps(tom hougaard) twice on a months free subscription and twice paid for- very disappointing im sorry to say and my own predictions are far more accurate and consistently so otherwise i would have continued the subscription.Even so,on occasion they were stunningly accurate just not enough consistency.But that is where i first got the interest in this idea.Many traders know that the patterns repeat and that includes entire intraday patterns.I have found that they repeat in a sequence though there are 2 problems.The easiest is that they can reappear as an 'inversion' (upside down)The hardest is that a part can invert,plus they also seem to evolve slowly over time but retain their basic characteristics.I would rather not say what they are based on as i dont believe you should dump a complete solution into the public domain.I think it is much better that people discover these things for themselves-its the only way you can trust it.I will give a clue though-a) i didnt invent or discover the idea its already known b)if this kinda thing interests you,just collect intraday charts and study them and you will find the sequence the answer will be infront of you.It took me about 2 weeks,but then i never was the sharpest tool in the box.btw,my study only goes as far back as last october,so i am hoping to discover more if there is more to be discovered.Also for a while i constructed intraday charts on graph paper (a very labour intensive pastime-jesus,i used to party you know,my old man still can't get to grips with the way i have so radically changed!) by complete accident i found that the size of these charts were fibonnaci,and that the market can be seen as it really is,which is perfectly geometrical,with 45 degree angles ruling supreme.If you wanna recreate these eye popping charts yourself here is the recipe: half centimetre squares are the soldiers(now stop that right now,cos you're sounding like jack)
OK, the trading day is 6 and a half hours on the horizontal..Half a centimetre per half hour= 6.5cm (so 2 days is 13cm and 13 is a fib number)
Next,each point on the vertical is a square so the ratio is 1 point per half hour-dunno why but when you see the result you wont want to fix something that aint broke.
Next, mark on the chart verticle lines at the 1st hour 3rd hour and fifth hour (10,30,12.30 AND 2.30) 1 3 and 5 are also fib numbers-mark the price at those points each day plus the ohlc
Last just project 45 degree lines into future days(from those prices) and if you have never done this before i promise the result will make your jaw drop. But as i said its a bit labour intensive and you need lots of floor space-perfection in hindsite,but can you make use of it going forward? i guess that is entirely in your own hands but its worth a lot more than most of the books and seminars out there plus it is free,and something that is mathmatically and geometrically perfect constantly is surely rule based and worth exploring.I think too many traders focus on price and forget time when actually they are linked.I think they are linked by 45 degrees which often you wont get on the charts you're using and explains why you get trend lines of various angles whereas in reality its 45 degrees that projects time and price together (jmho)I will shut up now!IMPORTANT-this experiment is for the S&P 500 other ratios will probably apply to different indicies,stocks and commodities-probably each has their own solution,i think Gann said as much
 
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