you are quite correct-the commission is much lower and i have used these bets in the past and will again in future.However, you can only sell these bets back to betonmarkets at a loss for a few minutes after you place the bet,i suppose this allows you to get out of a mistake if you're quick.The problem with this bet is that not only do you have to pick a direction,but you must also pick an ending time,and be correct on both counts.Now,you can easily devise strategies to take advantage of the lower comission on these bets.For example unless it's a trending day up/down (and even sometimes on these days) you often find that a V or A shape forms during the day often between the hours of 10.30 12.30 and 2.30.So lets say the market drops at 10.30,you might bet that 10.30 will be lower than 12.30 (betting for either a straight line through there to maybe 2.30,or betting it might form an A shape and so 12.30 may then be higher than 10.30 and 2.30.Today for example, looks like an A shape 10.30 to 1.30 to 3pm.A problem with this bet is they start on 10 minute barriers and you can't get in immediately as you can with the 'double' so the price would have moved by the time your bet starts,which sometimes is good,and sometimes bad.In the past i often got direction right but missed by a few minutes and/or half a point which is really frustrating and with a risk reward ratio of 1:1 even with a good 70-80% strike rate on correct calls,can see your account going sideways mostly unless you are prepared to increase the stake after each loser-more and increasing risk.So,lots to consider if you want to use fixed odds.Also with both bet types you cannot bet in the last 90 minutes of trade except on the 'double' if you are betting on tomorrows close or a close several days from now(up to 180 days i think)So you might for example place a double just before the close to end on tomorrows close-thats another strategy i am considering.And i have just won my bet today as i write this!! it looked close in the last half hour.I am now at breakeven-6 bets 3wins 3 losses.Of course i would be very grateful for any suggestions from experienced traders as to how best reduce the disadvantages of these bets-i am happy with my strategies though.Today i went short at medium term resistance (1327) and was only a point away from todays high 1328.5 which is a fib ratio (+1.000% from friday close) and i was banking on an A shape which we got.
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Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash
- Thread starter mitsubishi
- Start date
you are quite correct-the commission is much lower and i have used these bets in the past and will again in future.However, you can only sell these bets back to betonmarkets at a loss for a few minutes after you place the bet,i suppose this allows you to get out of a mistake if you're quick.The problem with this bet is that not only do you have to pick a direction,but you must also pick an ending time,and be correct on both counts.Now,you can easily devise strategies to take advantage of the lower comission on these bets.For example unless it's a trending day up/down (and even sometimes on these days) you often find that a V or A shape forms during the day often between the hours of 10.30 12.30 and 2.30.So lets say the market drops at 10.30,you might bet that 10.30 will be lower than 12.30 (betting for either a straight line through there to maybe 2.30,or betting it might form an A shape and so 12.30 may then be higher than 10.30 and 2.30.Today for example, looks like an A shape 10.30 to 1.30 to 3pm.A problem with this bet is they start on 10 minute barriers and you can't get in immediately as you can with the 'double' so the price would have moved by the time your bet starts,which sometimes is good,and sometimes bad.In the past i often got direction right but missed by a few minutes and/or half a point which is really frustrating and with a risk reward ratio of 1:1 even with a good 70-80% strike rate on correct calls,can see your account going sideways mostly unless you are prepared to increase the stake after each loser-more and increasing risk.So,lots to consider if you want to use fixed odds.Also with both bet types you cannot bet in the last 90 minutes of trade except on the 'double' if you are betting on tomorrows close or a close several days from now(up to 180 days i think)So you might for example place a double just before the close to end on tomorrows close-thats another strategy i am considering.And i have just won my bet today as i write this!! it looked close in the last half hour.I am now at breakeven-6 bets 3wins 3 losses.Of course i would be very grateful for any suggestions from experienced traders as to how best reduce the disadvantages of these bets-i am happy with my strategies though.Today i went short at medium term resistance (1327) and was only a point away from todays high 1328.5 which is a fib ratio (+1.000% from friday close) and i was banking on an A shape which we got.
I am short into the close at 1345.7.Allowing for commission,the S&P must close at 1343 or under for me to win.Medium term resistance is 1344,(and also +1.618% from close on mon and also pivot R-3,so a nice technical cluster there) so i am betting we close just under it as the predicted chart shows a high at the beginning of the day and ending on the low.I dont think we'll end anywhere near the low but futures were at the high of the session before the open and i figure there will be profit taking there which will pull the cash down a bit,hopefully enough to win my bet as i am going against the early sentiment regarding the financials.(the market thinks the worst news is on the table,and we have a temporary bottom)The bet was placed around 10 am.Its now 10.17am and we have dropped a couple of points and i am really hoping for a head and shoulders here then a drop,then sideways...and then some more money in my account! Update 10.37am- i have just place a second bet short into the close at 1348.3,with commission the S&P must close at or under 1346.Double the risk now.
If i'm gonna lose,i wanna be wrong on a monumental scale.So,that's one ambition achieved today. I knew i had got it wrong soon after placing the second short so i decided not to chase it or revenge trade as i couldn't be sure just how high it would go- 3.59% ? what's that a record?,i will have to check my history file.(did i say it would be a trending day?)Instead,since the weather was nice for once,i went out and blew some more money on a printer and spent 2 theraputic hours polishing the car.It was then that a brilliant idea came to me.When this all goes pear shaped,like i know its going to, i can come back in a new guise.If i can't trade the next best thing (or even better thing) would be start a new career as a guru.Obviousely you will be fading my calls you understand,and i need a good name cos that always appeals to the punters.Trader king? knightrader?..no can't use that anymore can i.Then it came to me,you remember that old marc bolan song? Of course i will have to go into commodities now,copper,silver,gold.mmm... anyway just for the record i am a tenner down mate,as they say in the UK. Oh btw,i got home near market close and went short at 1369.3 for the close on thursday and friday.With comish the S&P must close below 1367 on those days.Why dont i feel comftorble with that? Maybe it's because we just blew a gapping hole through 1364 resistance,until next time then,this is 'metal guru' signing off
It will be interesting to see what kind of follow through we get today.As usual i am telling myself that i'm not trading today and at the moment i just don't know which side of the market i should be on.Interestingly the bull% indicator which i mentioned the other day did turn to 'bull alert' 4 days before yesterdays suprisingly strong rally and the VIX has dropped so maybe i should be long.Todays predicted pattern is a drop in early trading (probably Ben will be the cause) and then reversing all day to close a little higher.I am leaning towards thinking there maybe a bull trap in the pipeline and i certainly dont want to buy at the highs,and would feel more comfortable to keep shorting the resistance levels-the next 2 are 1383 and 1406 and there will be very big resistance there with no fundamental case for going higher that i can see.
I think the predicted path for the s&p is going to be an 'inversion'(upside down) today you can see it here: http://www.holygrailtrading.webs.com/todaysprediction.htm - there is nothing for sale on my blog (magma has already verified this)
keep your bets on track, the best reason to bet rather than play the underlying is risk management. you know exactly waht you risk is. good luck.
question: what is the best bet for using an intraday support and resistance reversal setup? double down? flash bets?
question: what is the best bet for using an intraday support and resistance reversal setup? double down? flash bets?
Quote from sakimonohito:
keep your bets on track, the best reason to bet rather than play the underlying is risk management. you know exactly waht you risk is. good luck.
question: what is the best bet for using an intraday support and resistance reversal setup? double down? flash bets?
You cant use flash bets on indicies only forex unfortunately.As to the rest of the question that depends on your timeframe and there are so many ways you could play that.For my strategy betting on the close(s) you would have bought maybe 1364 early on or sold the high into the close.Picking an ending time intraday is tricky but see my recent posts regarding possible setups.It depends on your trading style and timeframe.I'm assuming from your question that you are a scalper correct me if i'm wrong.Scalping indicies means a minimum of 10 minutes from entry to exit so it kinda rules out scalping indicies but flash bets on forex are a possibilty and i know that forex is popular on betonmarkets as they offer a good range.You could use touch/no touch bets but they dont offer those intraday.You could also explore the bets offered at http://www.betsfortraders.com Thanks for the advice btw
That predicted path i posted earlier today did turn out to be an inversion as i suspected,but the strange thing is it was impossible to be certain about that at 1.30pm.Then,it could have gone either way but it was an interesting day.With 1364 now holding support it's hard to tell whether my 1369.3 short into thursday and fridays close will win or not but the follow through from yesterdays rally wasn't strong.The predicted path for tomorrow is a big drop in early trading,then sideways most of the day,an attempted rally around 2.30 trailing off at the close and staying in the red. (turn that all upside down if we get an inversion)I will remain on the sidelines and let my 2 bets play out unless i spot a setup too good to refuse.
Quote from mitsubishi:
Youou could also explore the bets offered at http://www.betsfortraders.com Thanks for the advice btw
Thanks
After the close yesterday,i said the predicted path for thursday calls for a drop in early trading,then sideways with an attempted rally around 2.30pm,and trailing down into the close with the whole day in the red.So far we have seen the early drop and my earlier 2 shorts at 1369.3 (made on tues) are looking better- the first one expires at the close today,the second expires on fridays close.Some talking head on Bloomberg said earlier today that this must be the most anticipated and predicted recession in history (nice soundbite mate and no doubt well rehearsed).Maybe its just that as a society we are a lot more sophisticated due to faster technology,communication and past experience,but it's food for thought.I am going to print out all the intraday charts i have of the S&P 500 back to October to free space on my computor.If anyone wants to download copies of these before i delete them,let me know in the next few days and i will make them available on my archive site.(It's a freewebs site so i can't leave them there for long as i will need the space-there's nothing for sale on that site either)