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Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash
- Thread starter mitsubishi
- Start date
Today should be a trending day and i think its gonna be a slow grind up.incidently, i noticed on weds that the bull% indicator turned to 'bull alert'- it turned 'bear confirmed' on march 6 when the high of that day was 1332.2. Since then the s&p500 made a low of 1256.9 on march 17. I may look for a short entry if i see weakness later on but at the moment we are above the pivot (1332.3) Besides,after 3 losses in a row, i feel like a hungry dog with an evil master- i'm too scared to ask for dinner!
ok, i am short at 1331.0-betting we close below there (bet was placed at 11.38am) The thinking behind this bet is i now believe the open move higher is a fade for the entire day-instead of a slow grind up i am banking on a slow grind down.Of course now i wish i had been short around 10am at 1335 which is near enough the fib (+0.768% from prev close), however since the pivot (1332.3) seems to be resistance, hopefully i have got this right.I also note that adv issues are only 51% and adv vol 40% (a dog will take food from anyone when it's hungry!)
That was an important win and brings the total to 5 bets 3 losers 2 wins,so hopefully get back to breakeven and beyond next week.I might spend some time over the weekend thinking of some other strategies to add to the existing one to maybe use later on down the line somewhere.(this is usually fatal to my bank balance...hang on,what's that?..nah dont worry it's just the sound of the cash machines tearing themselves outta the wall) The prediction i drew of todays chart on my site was bang on-if only i could do that all the time...have a nice weekend!
11.24am-I am just watching the market so far today as i dont have a strong feeling as to which way it will go.If anything i am bearish and want to see where we are at 12.30. Treasury secretary Paulson has said overhauling financial regulation will take a long time and not be completed this year.We have retreated from the pivot (1321.0) almost into the red but at the moment we are around 1319 with about 57% adv vol, 55% adv issues.I cant call the close but if i was forced to, i'd say barely changed hence my reluctance to bet on it.'No prognosis,no diagnosis' to quote Jesse livermore! Since i need a win to get to breakeven i want to see a sitting duck before i jump in.I think we will be higher at 12.30 then a drop to 2.30, then a bounce from there and the last hour should be interesting.I know most traders prefer to react rather than predict but betting on the close forces you to predict,in fact fixed odds betting any way you do it forces you to predict-maybe thats why the broker usually wins!
Quote from atticus:
Sorry, I've been up all night and haven't read the entire journal. What dealer are you using? These are intraday binaries?
Hi atticus,i am using betonmarkets.com and i use the'double' bet you either double or lose your stake and you can't take profit/loss until the bet expires
1.10pm- I am short at 1327 (medium term resistance) betting the close will be below there.Adv issues 62%/vol 66% is getting stronger though, but i can still win even if we close well above friday (1315.2)
Quote from mitsubishi:
Hi atticus,i am using betonmarkets.com and i use the'double' bet you either double or lose your stake and you can't take profit/loss until the bet expires
Hi Mitsu -- the intraday up/down bet can be sold and trades at a .25 premium to the market on the SPX. A bit better than the double bet.