Fixed odds betting the S&P 500 cash

M

mitsubishi

Having been a lurker here for 3 years i have decided to start my journal on what is probably the toughest traders forum on the planet! My name is David Knight (knightrader,but i cant use that name here,it's already taken, i drive a mitsubishi gto so i'm using mitsubishi !)I am based in the UK.
I have been trying to crack this trading game for more than 2 years now and to those of you who are already consistent winners-respect,i think you are rare,talented,clever people.And to those who pretend to be winners or/and prefer to be negative and hostile to everyone and anything,although you are amusing to read,please move on.
Why fixed odds?- its all to do with my trading history so far.I have identified my weaknesses as:
A)INABILTY TO TAKE A LOSS
B)TAKING PROFITS TOO EARLY
C)TURNING A PROFIT INTO A LOSS
D)OVERTRADING
E)REVENGE TRADING

My strengths:
A)GAUGING MARKET SENTIMENT/SHORT TERM DIRECTION
B)ENTRY POINTS

So i figured fixed odds would help play to my strengths and eliminate the weaknesses (that's the theory anyway!)
MY SIMPLE STRATEGY:
(I am trading S&P 500 cash) To bet that the index will close above/below my entry point.I know that is close to the cardinal sin of attempting to pick highs/lows,but not quite.Since this is a relatively new strategy for me i will be keeping the stake tiny-£5.The idea is to be consistent,if i can do that i will increase the stake.(I have stepped back and started over several times in the past and i regard this as a good sign of winning the discipline battle) I am making 1-3 bets a day or no bets at all-usually just the one. (Today i am betting we close above 1344 medium term support.My entry was 1344.8)
WHAT I USE:
support/resistance,pivots,fibonacci,market sentiment/breadth/volume and an intraday pattern prediction cycle.I dont use any of the lagging indicators such as stochastics or the 100 or so others that people use.Not knocking those that do,but for me price is king.
I also run a website which is not selling anything,it just helps me keep a journal and stay on track with my trading,plus i just love doing the design and layout etc.As it's market related it takes care of both interests.
 
Ok, i want to clarify why i entered todays trade on the long side.I am having to place my bet,then download a chart to my site showing my entry and then come on here to update the journal and try to do all of that as quickly as possible so i didn't have time to comment on the strategy earlier.One good thing is that i'm not a scalper so a few minutes wont make too much difference-my bet doesn't expire until the close .Anyway,i am basically betting that medium term support 1344 holds and that is close to pivot S-1 (1343.6) and also -0.618% (1344.5) from the close yesterday.So even if we close down today i may still win the bet.Another reason is that i use predicted price patterns as i mentioned in my first post and today calls for an early dip with a reversal into the close and so far that scenario looks on target.Last time this pattern appeared it was 'inverted' (upside down) but as you know the market dropped in early trading so an inversion looked unlikely.Most of my recent bets have been on the long side and winning even though we are in a bear,but you have to go with what the market is telling you right now if you are daytrading.If i am wrong and S-1 doesnt hold things could get a lot weaker.The great thing about fixed odds is you could be losing your bet for a long time but end up winning (or vice versa) but you dont have to manage your position.
 
well that was kind of close wasn't it!? but its a loss ,so 2 trades 1 win 1 loss means breakeven so far and tomorrow could see 1344 become resistance as the predicted pattern tends to be a swing trading day with a bearish bias (unless it inverts which would mean a swing trading day with a bullish bias) which could fit in with support becoming resistance.
 
I think today is going to drift away from the early highs and be another sideways ranging day with a bullish bias.1344 could be an important area again today and todays pivot is 1343.3 and we also have a fibonacci ratio at 1343.9 (+1.000% from yesterdays close),so a nice technical 'cluster' there.I may be looking to be a buyer later this afternoon,if i think we will hold support and if we drop a bit that support could be around 1334.2 (S-1 Pivot) which is around yesterdays low (1336.4)
 
I should say i actually have 2 bets -an earlier one betting we close above 1334.5(placed at 10.24am) so i have in effect averaged down. So thats one bet at 1330.7(placed at 10.36) and one at 1334.5.I am betting the S&p500 closes above those 2 prices
 
Bit of a rollercoaster day today.For a long time after my entry it looked as though both bets were safe -a 2 hour run from 1330-1346,but it all went pear shaped in the last 30 minutes.There was good money to be made from my entry points but not with my strategy of betting on the close using fixed odds.I was out at 12.30 and would have placed a short at 1346 since i already knew 1344 medium term support was likely to be resistance.But in this game coulda shoulda woulda just dont count,the market doesn't give a damn about you or how much hard work you put in.So thats 4 bets 1 winner 3 losers,the account is minus £10- its a steak and a beer kinda day for me (i always treat myself when i screw up-hey maybe thats where i am going wrong!!)
 
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