FirstDegree and Crude Oil

I didn't take any trades today even though there were 2 great setups that I like to see. I'll explain below as there is an explanation as to why, but really, there is no excuse and that bothers me.

attachment.php


Trade A: This was right after the open. It was a shooting star-ish pattern. I didn't take it at the time because there was a lot of support just below. I guess that is a valid reason not to take the trade. It was a failed breakout to the upside of the opening bar. Would have been good for +11 or you could have just taken +1 if you're going for bigger moves.

Trade B: This was another shooting star pattern with a bounce off the EMA. No entry since price never triggered you in.

Trade C: Lower high, semi-shooting star. It was sort of a failed breakout through the EMA. This I should have taken. I would have gotten entered into the trade and then it would have went 7 ticks against me, but the 10 tick stop would have held and you could have gotten +20 out of this one. At the time I was talking to NoDoji about a 6E trade and I tried to watch both the chart and listen to what she was saying, but then I started looking at the 6E chart much closer and then I missed the signal.

Trade D: Another lower high, beautiful signal. I was going to take this one, short at 87.11. I went to my DOM to put my order in and then at 87.10 there was over 100 contracts sitting there. I started having visions of getting 1 ticked out so I hesitated and thought about it some more and then I thought about it some more to see if those contracts would disappear and then it just dropped. I was mad at myself for not taking that one. Too much thinking! I traded it in my head and I would have taken +11 on this one when it got down there as there was some heavy support on the recent hammer bar. The setup was beautiful. Cross referencing on the 1min, the 1min price was under the 20EMA, went up and bumped against the 20EMA so both charts were under the EMA.

Ultimately I could have had about +30 ticks today on just those 2 trades, C and D. Today's market lulled me to sleep just enough to where I distracted myself and missed it all from overthinking. I even watched my charts all day today playing around with trend lines and support and resistance, trying to keep my mind active on the chart instead of going off and reading things and doing other things that I really shouldn't be doing.

Total: 0
Monthly Total: -53.5

hTotal: +41 (4 trades, 4W/0L)
Monthly hTotal: +109.5 (27 trades, 19W/8L)

Taking trades on Friday where I took a bunch of losses really got into my head as far as trying not to delude myself into thinking that I will always manage my trades perfectly. It's a different ball game to be honest. The purpose for why I'm keeping track of that hTotal (meant as "hypothetical," but can also be said as "hindsight") is just to keep track of how my trading would work out if I was trading all signals, which is my edge. And to clarify again, what I calculate as my hTotal is not always only the trades that I point out in this journal. The problem is that I either trade bad signals (look at last Friday) or I just don't take the trades at all so I don't let the probabilities work themselves out. I came into the week with high hopes and good intentions so I'm looking forward to the rest of the week to turn it around.

Last night I got to thinking about what Picaso had mentioned about reading books for "actionable knowledge." I was trying to keep the books closed, but I picked up the Brooks book and read the rest of the chapter that I was on, and then just ended up flipping through the rest of the book to see if anything would catch my eye.

I then had a thought and had to get up and turn my charts on again. It was a serious mind-screw in a good way. I'm not going to mention it here what it was because I really have no idea if it has any advantages or if there is really any validity behind it so I'm just going to continue to keep an eye on it. I was pretty excited to try it out with today's chart and in all of my excitement, I ended up waking up at 7:30am (not on purpose) to look at my charts. I looked at the chart and wrote down some numbers and then went back to bed. Once the market reopened, it was pretty cool how those numbers that I had written down tended to have some meaning. Again, I'm not going to mention what this idea is because I have no idea how to put it to use, but I think eventually once I get a grasp on it, I'll mention it for sure. It could just be nothing and I'm looking into it too much, but it was interesting.

So that is about all I really have to say. I'm going to put today behind me, maybe just continue to stare at the charts and get it back into my head that I need to take trades, take more than 1 trade a day, and let the probabilities work themselves out. I'm thinking that I'm going to start taking +20 ticks as a hard target. Wrong? Probably. I might even take +11 if I start feeling like price is getting tired. And, I'm going to continue moving my stop to +1 after price makes a move.

For example, as of writing this journal entry I was watching the chart and noticed one of my favorite setups. I hurried up and put an order in, price immediately spiked up over 10 ticks, went to around 16 ticks and then started to stall. I ended up taking +11 ticks in sim. The point is that I took it off at +11 rather than letting it come all the way back to +1. It bumped its head at the EMA and I just felt like it was a good time to take my profits.

All of that about targets is in theory right now as I continue to think about it. I don't mind getting taken out at +1 if the setup is good, but when it starts to stall and slow down, showing me +10 or more and then I let it go all the way back to +1, that tends to really sting where it hurts because it causes you to regret not taking that money off the table.

These are just my thoughts. If anyone has another angle on this, please let me know.

I didn't read anything last night that would have given me any inspiration. I'm trying to just take a break and clear my mind for a couple days.
 

Attachments

It's all about taking as many trades that fit your criteria as possible each day and being persistent. Today I had a string of CL trades which resulted in 5 b/e in a row, and I took a mental break in frustration only to see that if I'd simply jumped right back in like I did 5 times in a row, I would've caught the Big One (60 ticks).

Later I thought I'd call it a day, left my platform up and running just in case and took a lunch break. I came back to my desk and of course I found myself watching the action again and I messed with 6E, first in sim (I thought it would be chop and churn so long after the Europe close) and when the sim trade proved me quite wrong about that, I took a decent live trade.

Then I saw CL break down the LOD and realized that 85.96 major support from Friday and Monday was now potentially in view despite the fact that NYMEX was closed. I believed that enough stops were located there to make it a very "safe" breakout trade and placed my sell stop at .95. It turned out better than I expected.

Just get in there and swing away as long as it's a valid setup that fits your trading rules. You never know when a choppy mess will suddenly turn out a large clean price move.
 
I think on Friday I was trying to make something out of nothing. I was trying to swing away at trades, but instead I was taking lower probability trades that looked like trades that I would normally take and then I didn't take the trades that looked the best.

Those 2 trades later in the morning looked great and that last trade of the day that I called seconds before jumping in was beautiful. I hope I can see them more often without second guessing myself or having them be failed signals.

Also, nice trade on the after hours. Very nice!
 
Hey Nodoji,

Would you mind sharing your trade log from yesterday. Although you were frustrated with so many consecutive b/e trades, it's quite amazing that you were able to achieve b/e on your trades that failed. Whereas, I would have been stopped out several times with a 15 tick loss on each trade.

I would love to develop the ability to improve my timing to only suffer b/e when my trade fails. That's my current barrier to success... Any advise??

Sometimes I try to wait for extended consolidation, but then miss the breakout up or down.... aaarrggh!

thanks,

Walt

Quote from NoDoji:

It's all about taking as many trades that fit your criteria as possible each day and being persistent. Today I had a string of CL trades which resulted in 5 b/e in a row, and I took a mental break in frustration only to see that if I'd simply jumped right back in like I did 5 times in a row, I would've caught the Big One (60 ticks).

Later I thought I'd call it a day, left my platform up and running just in case and took a lunch break. I came back to my desk and of course I found myself watching the action again and I messed with 6E, first in sim (I thought it would be chop and churn so long after the Europe close) and when the sim trade proved me quite wrong about that, I took a decent live trade.

Then I saw CL break down the LOD and realized that 85.96 major support from Friday and Monday was now potentially in view despite the fact that NYMEX was closed. I believed that enough stops were located there to make it a very "safe" breakout trade and placed my sell stop at .95. It turned out better than I expected.

Just get in there and swing away as long as it's a valid setup that fits your trading rules. You never know when a choppy mess will suddenly turn out a large clean price move.
More...
 
No trades today. Most of it was because the signals weren't entirely clear. There were some really good trades, but I either missed them, had a reason not to take them, or just didn't know if they were valid signals. All of the reasons why I talk myself out of taking trades.

You'll notice my chart looks slightly different today. I was looking at the 1min chart for 2 of these entries and they were really nice signals, if you were confident enough to take them. This would have gotten you into the trades early, which kind of gives you added profit when the trade works based on the 5 min signals, and it gives you an extra zone that price needs to come back to if you move your stop to +1.

attachment.php


Trade A: Right after the open. It was a failed breakout of the opening bar. The reason why I wouldn't take the first shooting star was because it was a new high of the day and it could just be a pullback. I've fit it into my strategy not to take these first shooting star patterns at new highs. However, on this signal, you have a second failed breakout attempt and it's a second pattern showing that there is a possible reversal coming. I didn't like this one as much because on the 1min chart the 20 EMA was right around the 87.25 area and you can see the next bar after (the entry bar) was a doji. Although it worked on the next bar after, you would have had to sit through a fight between the bulls and bears. As I was looking at it in real time I tried to play it in my head and I would have gotten taken out at +1 based on thinking that it was having trouble going lower.

Trade B: This is a shooting star pattern, lower high. The problem with this trade is that it's sitting right on the EMA and that the previous bars were very "barb-wired." Lots of support down there.

Trade C: I missed this one, but seeing it after the fact makes it look good. This is a short of the break of the double bottom low. Price had the look of going lower. There were a bunch of stops sitting under those lows based on the support. I missed it at the entry, but watching it I told myself I'd get out at +20.

Trade D: This one was a trade based on the 1min chart. I'm not good at taking these so I never do, but I saw it in real-time and did a trade in my head to see what would happen. As you can see from the smaller chart (the 1min chart) you have a weak, failed breakout of the new highs along with a second try. Then you get a lower high (the shooting star pattern), and then you have the green doji after, which is a double bottom. Short one tick below that double bottom at something like 87.26. You could have gotten +30 out of this one if you held through the EMA, but I would have gotten out at +20. If you played it really tight with your breakeven stop you would have gotten taken out at +1.

Trade E: This wasn't as clear and never a trade for me. It's a failed breakdown. Maybe even on the next bar when it failed to go lower again. The second bar was maybe the confirmation that it was done going down. But you can see since the E bar wasn't that clear that the next bar was still struggling to get anywhere. Once you get more confirmation and everyone sees it, it really begins to take off.

Trade F: This was a trade in expectation that it would break the high of the day and have a strong breakout. The F bar was a quasi-pullback with a double top. I wasn't very confident in what was going on here, whether that was resistance or a pullback. It was so close to the high of the day that I just sat on my hands in indecision. I guess you just have to take them and manage later.

Trade G: This was a signal off the 1min again, as you can see from the second smaller chart that I added. Price made a slight bounce at a channel line (not pictured), which was the top of the previous big green bar. Then on G you get this pattern (1min chart) that has an internal double top with the 2nd bar being a bull bar near the highs of that bar. Think of it as telling you which way it's going to go. If the tops (or bottoms) are not the same then it's not a valid setup. This would have been good for +20 ticks. If you got in on Trade F you could have gotten +50 ticks if you held the entire way.

Total: 0
Monthly Total: -53.5

hTotal: +40 (4 trades, 4W/0L)
Monthly hTotal: +149.5 (31 trades, 23W/8L)

The hTotal is very conservative, not adding in the signals off the 1min chart since I have not made that a part of my strategy. That is still a work in progress.

So it was a great day to take signals and have follow through. I left so much money out there it was maddening. At least in some sane reasoning it doesn't hurt as bad since the signals weren't that clear. I need to get my mind back into the trading mentality of just taking signals.

Lately it has been questioning whether there is a valid signal because at the time I try to think of all the variables. I find every reason why I shouldn't take a trade, so I don't take the trade. Then it works out and I find every reason why it would have been a great trade. I have to stop thinking.

I also wasn't completely zoned in on my charts. I'm not really sure what I did today to take up all of my attention. I just wasn't focused on the charts. I have to remember that the market can give me a signal at any time, most often when I least expect it.

This morning I got up early and turned on my platform to see a nice signal. I went long and it was a very nice move. It went somewhere to like 18 ticks or so, so I moved my stop to +11 and got taken out. I was happy to take that in sim. Before I got entered I told myself I should just take it live, but I didn't. I thought it would be a good start to the day to get me in the zone, starting off on the right foot, but unfortunately I need to stop sitting on my hands before they go numb!

I didn't read anything last night so I'll just leave today's entries with these two links:

I happened to find this on the ET forums and I thought it was interesting: http://thinkingapplied.com/persistence_folder/persistence.htm

Also, I saw this video last night and thought it was funny. It has some bad language so be careful: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/i-trade-size
 

Attachments

Quote from jones247:

Hey Nodoji,

Would you mind sharing your trade log from yesterday. Although you were frustrated with so many consecutive b/e trades, it's quite amazing that you were able to achieve b/e on your trades that failed. Whereas, I would have been stopped out several times with a 15 tick loss on each trade.

I would love to develop the ability to improve my timing to only suffer b/e when my trade fails. That's my current barrier to success... Any advise??

Sometimes I try to wait for extended consolidation, but then miss the breakout up or down.... aaarrggh!

thanks,

Walt
More...

Hi Walt,

I'm an ADD trader who likes to catch momentum moves and strong trends. My way of trading and managing trades frequently takes me out of very good trades and I don't always stay persistent enough to get the re-entry that provides the momentum I like. I often lose sight of the bigger picture during slower moves. But what I do works for me, so that's what I do right now.

Many excellent day traders anticipate levels, placing limit orders at key points with tight stops if the level is violated. I'm currently studying this tactic to add to my arsenal.

Many other traders put in an OCO stop and target and don't touch either until one or the other is lifted. A hands off approach that would net me more losses, yet greater overall profits if I could get to the point of trading that way 100%, trading all setups.

Everyone needs to find out what style works best for their particular personality. I'm in a trading room and more than one of us often find ourselves in the same trade, yet we always end up with different results based on how we trade and how we read the action.

Hope that helps!
 

Attachments

Quote from NoDoji:



Everyone needs to find out what style works best for their particular personality. I'm in a trading room and more than one of us often find ourselves in the same trade, yet we always end up with different results based on how we trade and how we read the action.

Hope that helps!
More...

Hi NoD,

I am thinking about joining a CL trading room. Any thoughts on some good ones out there? I have done a couple of free trials but it is difficult to assess quality based on a random 4 hours. Of the ones I have seen, BonTrade seems reasonably legit. Grateful for any thoughts or opinions.

N
 
No trades today, no signals, bad trading day, very rangy. Not much to say.

attachment.php


Trade A: This was the best signal of the day, I didn't take it. Price pulls back to the EMA, holds off just under the EMA and then the A bar closes down confirming a reversal. Would have been +1 as it came back. I guess you could have played it to that support of yesterday's close and got something like 7 or 8 ticks, but I would have preferred to see it go towards the lows of the previous pivot low.

Trade B: Shooting star at the top of the range, but the low is sitting right on the EMA so no trade.

Trade C: Internal double top just slightly higher than the high of two bars prior to bar A. This isn't one of my favorite setups with the internal double top as the 2nd top bar was a red bar. If it was a green bar I would have jumped on this one.

Trade D: Rejection off the EMA, bounce off the support of yesterday's close, but we're getting a flat EMA and resistance up at that internal double top. Price seems to be going sideways now and this long is near the top of the range. Even if you tried to enter you wouldn't have been triggered into the trade.

Trade E: Internal double bottom, but again, the 2nd bottom isn't pointing down. Also, you're getting somewhat of a higher low so the signal isn't as valid.

Trade F: Hammer-ish bar, bounce off the support of yesterday's close. It's under the EMA so not a good signal. Also, you had a failed breakout to the upside so there is still some downward pressure. Price looks like it's making higher lows, which gives some boost to the price, but it's not as good of a signal as I would like to see. Plus, you have a big red bar right before this off the failed breakout.

Total: 0
Monthly Total: -53.5

hTotal: -20 (4 trades, 2W/2L)
Monthly hTotal: +129.5 (35 trades, 25W/10L)

hTotal today takes these trades for the effect that I take every signal, regardless of conflicting varibles. I guess you could say this induces some sort of human error.

So the trading signals were just bad today, not much going on, very sideways with the holiday, presumably. Not much to really say. There were a few times I put orders in, but either didn't get filled or I ended up taking them off because it didn't feel right.

I don't think anything else is worth noting so this will be a short entry.

Happy Veteran's Day to everyone!
 

Attachments

Quote from ntc2010:

Hi NoD,

I am thinking about joining a CL trading room. Any thoughts on some good ones out there? I have done a couple of free trials but it is difficult to assess quality based on a random 4 hours. Of the ones I have seen, BonTrade seems reasonably legit. Grateful for any thoughts or opinions.

N
More...

I haven't checked out any subscription-based rooms. I linked up with someone back in May who wanted to discuss a few things and I suggested Skype as much less distracting than a typing-style chat room. It turns out we were kindred trading spirits and eventually a few others joined and so it's a very informal thing, but having extra sets of eyes is really helpful.

My recommendation is to perhaps post a request on ET for other CL traders to join with you on Skype. You could outline your trading style and your objectives, and once you have a small group together, start sharing ideas and discussing strategies.

I suggest setting some ground rules regarding the discussion of religion and politics, and consequences for blatant transgressions such as if a trend line argument becomes heated and goes on for more than 15 minutes, the parties involved must all take Prozac and an immediate lunch break :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top