I've been getting alot of great input here so I wanted to share my first trade using a spread. I may want to start a journal but I'll take a few trades first to get a feel.
The past few months I have been fading (if thats what you call it) every rally in the spy. I would buy an OTM put when the market rallied and then would close my position out within the week. My forcast is relativley short term. I try to keep from losing too much in theta so I buy at least one month till expiry with the plan of closing out within 5-6 trading days. So I am taking my trades to the next level with the intention of possibly holding even longer maybe till expiration.
I was previously buying puts with a short term bearish outlook. So I asked myself why I should take the risk of losing my entire premium when I can sell a further OTM put against it. I can look at the chart and honestly say I don't think the market will drop past a certain point. If it had just plummeted while holding only the long put then great but then I would be profiting due to luck and I don't plan on being profitable based on luck.
So here is my feelings on the market and here is my trade. I am not very educated when it comes to market fundamentals but I will look at the chart and determine basic near term support and resistance. I feel comfortable with that so far. I'll check to see what the past few days have done. My outlook right now happens to be bearish and I am seeing that the past few days have closed higher and price is approaching resistance. My feeling is that the market can break the resistance and continue upward or we can have a reversal and possibly a few down days. I think we go lower. Here is my trade:
Spy is currently at (about) 92
Buy 3 Jan 16 '09 89 PUT for 1.50 Debit= 450
Sell 3 Jan 16 '09 86 PUT for .82 Credit= 246
Net Debit= 204
Worst case senario: At expiration the SPY is at 89 (or above) which will result in a loss of $204.
Best case senario: At expiration the SPY is at 86 (or below) in which the 89 long PUT will be ITM by 3. The short PUT will be worthless. All of the time value will be gone and the difference in strike prices will be my profit. Credit from short PUT is 246 plus intrinsnic value in the long PUT will be 300. This would yield a profit of $546 with a max risk of $204 (not unlikley for my math to be off on simple things).
Jan 16 '09 86 PUT:
Imp Vol=41.16%
Delta=-.1776
Gamma=.0353
Vega=.0479
Theta=-.0687
Jan 16 '09 89 PUT:
Imp Vol=37.91%
Delta=-.2923
Gamma=.0502
Vega=.0625
Theta=-.0843
I am not very educated when it comes to implied volatility and the greeks but I recorded what they were at the time of my transaction. If anyone thinks that I made a foolish decision because of anything please let me know so next time I will be able to correct myself. I know I will be confused whether I should hold till expiration or not depending on what happens. I would appreciate any input regarding appropriate action or any advice at all. I have never been exercised on or exercised upon probably cause I haven't sold many options in the past so that may be a first. FYI I use IB and quotetracker for charts. Wish me luck and thanks in advance. -Ray
The past few months I have been fading (if thats what you call it) every rally in the spy. I would buy an OTM put when the market rallied and then would close my position out within the week. My forcast is relativley short term. I try to keep from losing too much in theta so I buy at least one month till expiry with the plan of closing out within 5-6 trading days. So I am taking my trades to the next level with the intention of possibly holding even longer maybe till expiration.
I was previously buying puts with a short term bearish outlook. So I asked myself why I should take the risk of losing my entire premium when I can sell a further OTM put against it. I can look at the chart and honestly say I don't think the market will drop past a certain point. If it had just plummeted while holding only the long put then great but then I would be profiting due to luck and I don't plan on being profitable based on luck.
So here is my feelings on the market and here is my trade. I am not very educated when it comes to market fundamentals but I will look at the chart and determine basic near term support and resistance. I feel comfortable with that so far. I'll check to see what the past few days have done. My outlook right now happens to be bearish and I am seeing that the past few days have closed higher and price is approaching resistance. My feeling is that the market can break the resistance and continue upward or we can have a reversal and possibly a few down days. I think we go lower. Here is my trade:
Spy is currently at (about) 92
Buy 3 Jan 16 '09 89 PUT for 1.50 Debit= 450
Sell 3 Jan 16 '09 86 PUT for .82 Credit= 246
Net Debit= 204
Worst case senario: At expiration the SPY is at 89 (or above) which will result in a loss of $204.
Best case senario: At expiration the SPY is at 86 (or below) in which the 89 long PUT will be ITM by 3. The short PUT will be worthless. All of the time value will be gone and the difference in strike prices will be my profit. Credit from short PUT is 246 plus intrinsnic value in the long PUT will be 300. This would yield a profit of $546 with a max risk of $204 (not unlikley for my math to be off on simple things).
Jan 16 '09 86 PUT:
Imp Vol=41.16%
Delta=-.1776
Gamma=.0353
Vega=.0479
Theta=-.0687
Jan 16 '09 89 PUT:
Imp Vol=37.91%
Delta=-.2923
Gamma=.0502
Vega=.0625
Theta=-.0843
I am not very educated when it comes to implied volatility and the greeks but I recorded what they were at the time of my transaction. If anyone thinks that I made a foolish decision because of anything please let me know so next time I will be able to correct myself. I know I will be confused whether I should hold till expiration or not depending on what happens. I would appreciate any input regarding appropriate action or any advice at all. I have never been exercised on or exercised upon probably cause I haven't sold many options in the past so that may be a first. FYI I use IB and quotetracker for charts. Wish me luck and thanks in advance. -Ray