First foray in trading ES

[austinp]

<i>"I think I am aiming for small profits on the winners, a little larger losses on the losers, but a high win percentage.

Perhaps 75% win 1.75
and 25% lose 3.25"</i>

Try structuring >50% win with +4pts or greater and <50% loss with -2pts or less.

The ratio you propose doesn't account for days when whatever your approach is suffers four - five straight losses out of the gate. Then you need eight - ten wins just for breakeven recovery from there after costs.

For all the emini traders here who profess to maintaining a 75% win ratio over time, where are the posts of proof in P&L 2008 thread? Anyone who is boastful enough to print how well they do are equally boastful enough to post blotters showing the trades and evidence of 75% success.

I predict you'll see necropsy photos of bigfoot being autopsied in a UFO by aliens posted here before anyone demonstrates sustained 75% win ratio in ES. Perhaps someone will prove that wrong

 

[rickf]

Quote from austinp:

<i>"I think I am aiming for small profits on the winners, a little larger losses on the losers, but a high win percentage.

Perhaps 75% win 1.75
and 25% lose 3.25"</i>

Try structuring >50% win with +4pts or greater and <50% loss with -2pts or less.

The ratio you propose doesn't account for days when whatever your approach is suffers four - five straight losses out of the gate. Then you need eight - ten wins just for breakeven recovery from there after costs.

That's an interesting semantical point - knowing that it's a personal thing from individual to individual, what's the general consensus on P/L tracking? I'm not one to go for all the percentages/ratios and stuff to market "my" success, and what I think is acceptable to me may be laughable to someone else and their style/goals/ambition/ego.

Do you base P/L on a per-trade or per-day result?[1] I've had days where I've been 3-for-3 or 6-for-6 and done quite well, and other days where I've been 3-for-4 and still been profitable, and then those rare days where I'm 2-for-5 but even though I was down for the day I came back to finish in the green, thus "not losing" money on the day and becoming "profitable." And yes, there are those X-for-Y days where you simply do lose money on the day. That's a loss.

Just throwing food for thought out there...

[1] - I build commissions into my trading style and goals, so when I talk 'profit' I mean 'what I get to keep and then share with the IRS next April.'

 

[volente_00]

Quote from austinp:

<i>"I think I am aiming for small profits on the winners, a little larger losses on the losers, but a high win percentage.

Perhaps 75% win 1.75
and 25% lose 3.25"</i>

Try structuring >50% win with +4pts or greater and <50% loss with -2pts or less.

The ratio you propose doesn't account for days when whatever your approach is suffers four - five straight losses out of the gate. Then you need eight - ten wins just for breakeven recovery from there after costs.

For all the emini traders here who profess to maintaining a 75% win ratio over time, where are the posts of proof in P&L 2008 thread? Anyone who is boastful enough to print how well they do are equally boastful enough to post blotters showing the trades and evidence of 75% success.

I predict you'll see necropsy photos of bigfoot being autopsied in a UFO by aliens posted here before anyone demonstrates sustained 75% win ratio in ES. Perhaps someone will prove that wrong

I like the min 2 to 1 ratio as well. As far as the 4 or 5 straight losses out of the gate, one must decide what rules to implement to deter this from happening. If I start with a losing trade out of the gate, I will not take any more trades the rest of the session as long as I am negative for the day. If I am already positive and then hit a loser, I will then leave it open to take another trade as long as that next trade if it turns out to be a loser will not put me negative for the day. Define sustained 75% win ratio AP ? How long of period are we looking for ? What is average win ratio ? Are you saying it is not possible to be at 75% over a long period of time ? ?

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from austinp:

...Try structuring >50% win with +4pts or greater and <50% loss with -2pts or less...

You've had a good run lately. What are your recent ratios?

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from volente_00:

...If I start with a losing trade out of the gate, I will not take any more trades the rest of the session as long as I am negative for the day...

If you start with a losing trade, how can you not be negative on the day unless you carried overnight? (And if you do carry overnight, ok, I just wasn't aware of it until now.)

So one losing trade and you call it a day? What is your historic win ratio? I suppose it must be quite high, otherwise you take a lot of time off.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Thunderdog:

If you start with a losing trade, how can you not be negative on the day unless you carried overnight? (And if you do carry overnight, ok, I just wasn't aware of it until now.)

So one losing trade and you call it a day? What is your historic win ratio? I suppose it must be quite high, otherwise you take a lot of time off.

I never hold positions through the maintenance period. I do take trades in extended hours.


When a child does something wrong, you punish them with time out that keeps them from doing what they enjoy in order to change their behavior and keep them from repeating that bad behavior.

When someone who loves to trade has a losing trade from the start, you punish them by making them watch from the outside looking in and condition them to only take high probability trades in order to avoid time out.


The majority of my losing trades do not come from the first trade of the session. When they do, I walk away and come back to fight another day. As a fader if I stay after a loser out of the gate I am tempted to keep taking hit after hit which does nothing but erode me financially and emotionally. My discipline allows me to never lose more than 3 es points in any session as long as I follow the rules. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with getting killed on a day and then trading your way back to positive by the end but I will no longer put myself in that position as it can also turn a -3 day day into a -20 if you are not in sync with the market that day. Knowing when to sit on your hands in trading is just as important as knowing when to act.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from volente_00:

I never hold positions through the maintenance period. I do take trades in extended hours.


When a child does something wrong, you punish them with time out that keeps them from doing what they enjoy in order to change their behavior and keep them from repeating that bad behavior.

When someone who loves to trade has a losing trade from the start, you punish them by making them watch from the outside looking in and condition them to only take high probability trades in order to avoid time out.


The majority of my losing trades do not come from the first trade of the session. When they do, I walk away and come back to fight another day. As a fader if I stay after a loser out of the gate I am tempted to keep taking hit after hit which does nothing but erode me financially and emotionally. My discipline allows me to never lose more than 3 es points in any session as long as I follow the rules. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with getting killed on a day and then trading your way back to positive by the end but I will no longer put myself in that position as it can also turn a -3 day day into a -20 if you are not in sync with the market that day. Knowing when to sit on your hands in trading is just as important as knowing when to act.

OK, your post makes sense. I also don't like starting the day with a losing trade. Therefore, I start the day with slightly higher setup standards than I employ otherwise, until I am in profit. However, I will continue to trade even if I start negative, but I suppose I trade at a shorter time frame, because I risk fairly less per trade. Whatever works, eh?