First back testing...

[farmerjohn1324]

Some issues:
2) RSI (of which I'm not a fan -- have never seen it work well) has much sequential content, and therefore its direction is as much or more important than its level. So, using 'level' only is using half of the RSI's available story.

3) On-Balance Volume -- how does one use that in a forex case, which lacks volume??

4) assuming you're going short, then the stop-loss should be set at level of upper Boll.Band.

[EDIT:] Otherwise, you've got:
middle BB: Entry
lower BB: stop-loss
below lower BB: take-profit

Are you saying that volume indicators are worthless in Forex? Why don't they have volume?

 

[Turveyd]

Are you saying that volume indicators are worthless in Forex? Why don't they have volume?

Forex only has fake pretend tick volume, ie how many times the price changed in that period.

BB are useful keep experimenting, rsi not so much.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Forex only has fake pretend tick volume, ie how many times the price changed in that period.

BB are useful keep experimenting, rsi not so much.

Can you suggest a better momentum indicator for Forex?

 

[Turveyd]

Can you suggest a better momentum indicator for Forex?

I only trade with BB and a SMA ( slower ), not an indicator fan.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I only trade with BB and a SMA ( slower ), not an indicator fan.

What is your average hold period?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

you will never find 'what works' with back test... but you can find 'what doesn't work'.

richDude,

I respectfully disagree with you

Backtesting proves if a trading strategy/idea have postive expectancy of XXX to XXXX trades correct?

Otherwise whats the sense in backtesting.

Explain your comments

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

richDude,

I respectfully disagree with you

Backtesting proves if a trading strategy/idea have postive expectancy of XXX to XXXX trades correct?

Otherwise whats the sense in backtesting.

Explain your comments

I'm not the guy you're replying to but I found back tests utterly useless since I'm not purely systematic. So for mildly discretionary (I can't figure out how to code/train the entry / exit patterns) experimenting with statistical hypotheses is more fruitful. Generally, is looking at the past helpful? Absolutely. But I put way more value on forward testing with either paper trading or live trading than I used to.

I've talked about it elsewhere. Find the statistical properties. Those are way more reliable than past price movement. In my experience. YMMV Magna is a cock.

 

[richDude]

richDude,

I respectfully disagree with you

Backtesting proves if a trading strategy/idea have postive expectancy of XXX to XXXX trades correct?

Otherwise whats the sense in backtesting.

Explain your comments

because backtesting always has the goal of searching for the holy grail that doesn't exist.

some people might say - well the goal is to look for tools that can work in certain market conditions and it's up to the trader to decide if the conditions fit. I call that bs too... there are only 2 conditions - trending or non-trending. for trending you don't need no tool, just buy on new high sell on new low. for non-trending you don't need no tool either... just eye ball the chart you know where to buy or sell.

 

[remogul92]

Some issues:
2) RSI (of which I'm not a fan -- have never seen it work well) has much sequential content, and therefore its direction is as much or more important than its level. So, using 'level' only is using half of the RSI's available story.

3) On-Balance Volume -- how does one use that in a forex case, which lacks volume??

4) assuming you're going short, then the stop-loss should be set at level of upper Boll.Band.

[EDIT:] Otherwise, you've got:
middle BB: Entry
lower BB: stop-loss
below lower BB: take-profit

Tom, good points

I had the same issues with the BB parameters. Maybe a tweak there would help.

BTW, you can get limited volume on FX, but the volume you'd get would only represent the volume that goes through your specific broker which really doesn't tell you the volume of the ENTIRE FX market worldwide.

 

[CharlesS]

.. BTW, you can get limited volume on FX, but the volume you'd get would only represent the volume that goes through your specific broker which really doesn't tell you the volume of the ENTIRE FX market worldwide.

I recently heard a market professional say that 60% of currency trading is via futures.

I'd think that futures volume would be applicable to FX trading of currencies ?

You'd likely have to get the data from a source other than the FX broker if it does not also offer currency futures, though this does suggest an enhanced service that an FX broker could provide.