fine tuning needed, pls help

A

aiyah_mark_lah

Hi fellow forumers,

I need some advice here, having traded for months on a demo account, my results are pretty much mixed, average at best.

I trade off the 15 mins chart using 1 min chart for entry and exit. I only use one indicator ( ichimoku kinko hyo ). I do pay attention to news as well.

Trades are usually executed somewhat like a moving average crossover, its effective no doubt, the problem however is
I could not be consistently profitable because very often my take profit target is not hit and my trade swinged into a loss. Of course I would be happy to take a small profit instead. Sometimes in slow markets, profits emerge slower but again turned into a loss because I waited too long.

So I am thinking the flaw here really is either my entry or there is a problem in my trade management.

Do I have to wait till my stoploss is fully reached then get out ? ( I hate that ), or must I have a predetermined period of time to stay in a trade and get out whatever the results are ? Or maybe I must combine both.

LOL I am having a hard time putting my problem here into writing so I hope you understand what I am talking about.

Your advise and suggestions are much appreciated. I been following ET for a while already and have learned much here.

Many Thanks in advance !!!

mt
 
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okay I am done playing with AAAA

so you trade using one indicator

you didn't even decide when to stop and when to exit

well of course you got problems

make up rules, stick with them

if they don't work, and they won't because you just MADE THEM UP

make up new rules

have you ever heard of thing called trial and error

after 3 years you'll get it
 
Ichimoku kinko hyo is usually more effective when using dailies. And yes always have a predetermined time parameter at which you want the trade to play out. If you you are filled within that time parameter and you are in the money only then are you allowed to extend your time in that trade. Try learning to use Fibos effectively on dailies and hourlies, you will avoid a lot of noise. And also stop paying attention to the news, be aware of when volatility happens but stop making bullish bearish calls based on news. One piece of data does not change the global perspective even though the jackasses on CNBC try to make it seem like it does. Since we don't have the advantage of analyzing volume we have to simply observe the conviction of a move and any follow through that takes place. This is what makes trading spot FX so tough not being able to know volume makes intraday trading basically a guessing game. Since I have started sticking to the dailies and only making 5-10 trades a week (depending on how many pairs I am following) I've been so much more consistent.
 
Riskaddict,

thank you, not forgetting FATTY ACID as well.

Riskaddict, do you day trade? If you use daily and hourly chart, 5 to ten trades a week seems a lot. Are your positions held overnight?

I am curious, on average how long do you stay in a trade given the time parameters you trade in ?

Do you use ichimoku as well ?
I will check out Fibos for sure.


Cheers

mt
 
Riskaddict,

(thank you, not forgetting FATTY ACID as well.

Riskaddict, do you day trade? If you use daily and hourly chart, 5 to ten trades a week seems a lot. Are your positions held overnight?

I am curious, on average how long do you stay in a trade given the time parameters you trade in ?

Do you use ichimoku as well ?
I will check out Fibos for sure.)

The time it takes for a trade to play out depends on what the chart tells me to do. Some times I'll take 1 big position and be in and out in a day or sometimes I'll pyramid in and out over a two week span. Daytrading swing trading its all semantics the market is always changing and one "system" will not work all the time so why not adapt? 10 trades a week when you're trading 4 or 5 different pairs is easy. Since I don't give a crap about daily changes to the fundamental perspective of every G7 country I can spend all my time (2 hours a day) interpreting charts.

As far as position size goes that depends on the size of your account. But starting out the lesson I learned 3 years ago was to not become enchanted with the insane leverage offered by many forex brokers. I now never keep it at more than 50:1. Only had to spend 8K to learn!

If you are new to trading in general not just FX read:

Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Lessons Every Trader Must Master by Jason Alan Jankovsky

and some far out thinking try

Trading Chaos: Applying Expert Techniques to Maximize Your Profits (A Marketplace Book) by Bill M. Williams
-hard to mesh with spot forex but still interesting.
 
Unfortunately Fatty Acid is correct ... you have to have set number of rules that you follow -- this is just the risk prevention aspect of a trade.

My advice:

(1) You have to learn your currency pair. Fortunately every broker has a demo so its easy to do this. Learn how that contract retraces, so you can make money off a retracement. Learn how that contract moves (USD/CAD does not move like the EUR/JPY) -- this is for best entry and exit points i.e. spiking, bid / ask flips, etc. Learn how the contract moves when facing support or resistance (the dealer will run stops but everyone is still buying on the perceived support or selling at the perceived resistance) Learn what other cross contracts can affect the contract you are trading (i.e the EUR/GBP definitely has an affect on how the EUR/USD and GBP/USD move.

(2) Understand the macroeconomics behind the currency move so next time you wont just scratch your head. Basically read the news and whatever "big bank" reports you can get your hands on. This will not help you at the certain moment you are trading but knowing these things can help you set yourself up for a good trade in the future.

(3) Always convince yourself of your gameplan. shooting stars and triangle patterns are great but people say those things to technically try to convince you of their plan. You should go into a trade after looking at all the facts that you have.

(4) Trading can be intellectual but it also has a "gambling" aspect to it. Remember psychology plays a big factor in why traders trade. If BNP Paribas says that there is resistance because there are Option strikes at that price point and the option holders will defensively sell to keep their option live, the consider it but then consider how long can those option holders sell before they cant sell anymore.

oops I wrote too much
 
Thanks a lot riskaddict and usdoutlaw,

Well, ever since I started demoing forex, trying to daytrade the market, my success has been pretty much limited by two factors, the spread and chasing losses. I ever asked myself why didnt I hold the position and play out the whole move instead ? I mean it makes more sense isnt it ? The reason I gave myself is that I want to avoid event risk, however I belief its really me wanting to have some thrill of gambling thats all. I started off on the wrong note in the first place.

After some self examination, I think if I were to make serious money in forex, my game plan has to change.

Riskaddict, I agree that I have to learn to adapt to changing enviroment and trade longer term, or let the market decide the TP or SL. I will be using trailing stoploss to manage event risk.

Usdoutlaw, I am glad to tell you that I do focus on the pair I trade most often ( USD/JPY ) and learn how it behaves around the technical indicator I use as well as its behaviour towards economic reports before and after. In fact i am getting better at it everyday, wont bore you with the details, but its pretty accurate.

To sum it up, I do have a very good trading system in place, however my approach towards the infomation gathered is wrong, and my trade management skills are lousy, coupled with unrealistic trading approach, no wonder I am facing such problems.

Well things are set change for me and I am looking forward to more consistency in my trading soon.

Thanks guys for your suggestions and advice.

In fact I am thinking of posting my demo trades here or maybe in another thread for you guys to see. Hoping to go live soon as I belief real money at risk is a better indication of your progress or lack of it.


mt
 
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