Finding the Holy Grail

I'm not sure if anyone else was curious about this:

Quote from bwolinsky:

"The holy grail is the third derivative over various ma period lengths.

The change tells you where it has moved to, the change in the change tells you the concavity, and the third derivative's change in the change in the change shows how the convexity from one point to any other rotates around the other. Identifying trend, spotting bottoms and tops, and the intermediate oscillations of the market as they happen. "

I coded it and it looked just like the RSI or money flow. You could adjust the time scale and again, just like any momentum indicator.

I knew it wouldn't be that easy to find another edge...

:D
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

I'm not sure if anyone else was curious about this:

Quote from bwolinsky:

"The holy grail is the third derivative over various ma period lengths.

The change tells you where it has moved to, the change in the change tells you the concavity, and the third derivative's change in the change in the change shows how the convexity from one point to any other rotates around the other. Identifying trend, spotting bottoms and tops, and the intermediate oscillations of the market as they happen. "

I coded it and it looked just like the RSI or money flow. You could adjust the time scale and again, just like any momentum indicator.

I knew it wouldn't be that easy to find another edge...

:D
More...

The various optimized lengths are used to mark pricing levels for support and resistance onto a chart then. As much time as it takes to follow, I've integrated a variable called TSI and it has the effect of smoothing over non-extremum returns. I hope your calculations of these movements including an identification of trend with these price points marked on each of the charts. I would love to see your code by the way.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I was goofing off for a while.

So I read the thread. My vantage point is a combo of several posts.

There was a dumber category that suggests a person just falls upon what is the holy grail.

Right next to that may be that a person could be very analytical and just obey what he is told to do.

There are lots of profitable systems. And much is said about all of these.

To get in the "holy grail category" it may be reasonable to look at the full offer of the market.

Below I will just cut and paste a prior post I made to a person who didn't understand what was sitting right in front of him. It was what I call "an enabler".

If you read all of the posts in this thread by each of the people, you find that no one posting is enabled. No one "gets it" for making the full offer of the market. Collectively, they alll contribute to this "proof" that they do not "get it".

Starting with the minimum money and compounding according to the full market's offer makes making 7 digits a year peanuts. By just spending the days required to get to a "sweet spot" level making a million dollars can be a daily occurance.

I recognize that is is possible for every poster so far in this thread to do the 7 digits a day. But not many ever will. The one impediment is that they will not decide to do the first thing required of them.

What is going to be suggested is fun to do. Secondly, it is not difficult or time consuming. It involves gowing a system that takes from the market, the full offer of the market. You partner with the market and obey what the market tells you to do. You, responsibly, learn your role and just repeat it in the future. You also need to not do what most of the posters mistakenly decidied to do. Just below, I put my prior post in quotes and colored it green.

You have about 20 minutes to respond to doing the first step.

"A lot of people have helped you (in their respective ways) be enabled to "know" what is going on in the place where your interests lay.

Good for them.

Look over your place of operation and be sure you have three fractals there to see. Only one timeframe is required usually.

On that screen you can observe a trading fractal, a faster fractal and a slower fractal.

From this, you can always "know that you know" where you are in the trend you are trading. This means you can, in the future, trade all of a full trend as each trend appears, flows and comes to its end.

To self-discover how this all comes about, there is only one thing you have to do.

Make use of the granularity of the market and simply build nested parallelograms from the smallest fractal up to your trading fractal and just one slower fractal beyond that.

Then, as you can see, you have three fractals on one timeframe and your trading fractal is surrounded by one faster fractal and one slower fractal.

Making money in markets depends upon "knowing that you know" where you are in the events of a trend. Please yourself by trading each trend from its beginning to its end.

Once you do your discovery process of building up to your trading fractal, then you can compose a log with a set of columns, print copies of a blank log and note the process of each trend from beginning to end with the vocabulary you chose for each of the logging columns you designed.

This will allow you to find the true value in the advice you have just been given in your thread.

Do not worry about the circumstance that could come up regarding not doing what I've suggested. Most people would not go through this stuff at all.

But there is this alternative life style that does await some people. They do discover this sweet spot in trading and become wealthy and helpful in their local community. Then they die after a while."
More...

I'm waiting on the fact that you do not have anything but a tax lien living with an estranged wife in her house which she bought long before she knew you well enough to take you in?
 
Took me a decade and my conclusion is down below.

Believe it or not, price has very special peculiarities.

Consider price the human race and the instruments the humans that make this race.

Consider yourself the trader, a psychologist.

Study your subjects and you will begin to understand why price acts the way it does but most important where it gets irritated, complacent, confused or euphoric.

Accept that price has free will and it has different options at any given time, but very limited options at very special specific crossroads.

Crazy A
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

I'm not sure if anyone else was curious about this:

Quote from bwolinsky:

"The holy grail is the third derivative over various ma period lengths.

The change tells you where it has moved to, the change in the change tells you the concavity, and the third derivative's change in the change in the change shows how the convexity from one point to any other rotates around the other. Identifying trend, spotting bottoms and tops, and the intermediate oscillations of the market as they happen. "

I coded it and it looked just like the RSI or money flow. You could adjust the time scale and again, just like any momentum indicator.

I knew it wouldn't be that easy to find another edge...

:D
More...

A simpler way to do this and be able to visualize as well as have an ATS is to do the "pin wheel".

As most know it is not possible to take derivatives of non continuous functions. An equivalent stat has to be substituted.

I can't remember when we made it popular but is was probably before ET was put on line. (certainly before blowinsky)

Use three MLR lines that are double each other (10, 20 and 40 were used long ago). Display them on price.

If you compressed time and made a camtasia of the right portion of a chart that is almost stationary on a display screen, you could see or imagine how the three MLR's form a pattern like the flow of fish flocks or flocks of birds. (there is now a math for this as well.)

In detail, you just observe (or for an ATS calculate and get signals) the angular velocity among the three lines; it translates into a set of leading indicators of price that almost anyone can use for timing trades on any fractal. Note how the add/delete function keeps the signals from lagging (this is as compared to the use of EMA's or AMA's which you may have used to circumvent the Calculus dilemma)

It is a neat solution for the problem that differential Calculus cannot be applied to the non continuous functions of the market.

The holy grail is close to taking 3 to 6 times the daily ATR; Blowinsky is not even close because his stuff is so lagging.

As I remember blowinsky finds taking the full offer of the markets "unbelievable" so far in his life.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

A simpler way
More...

Thanks for that..... I'm going to spend some time trying to understand it.

It's true, there is a lag in using numerical methods to get the third derivative. However, with any derivative, it's very noisy the higher it is.

I tried 1, 2 and 4 day spans for calculating the slope. The 1 day looked just like a noisy ROC indicator.

Simpler tools like momentum divergence or higher pivots as the second impulse wave begins, seem to show more potential.

Classical technical analysis..... who would have guessed?

:D
 
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