Finding the Holy Grail

Quote from Wide Tailz:

For real?

I'm pretty thrilled with 1.4 and no surprises.

Maybe I'm not taking the "full offer of the market"?
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Remember to plug (full offer of the market) into a markov chain variable. It's trippy.

There isn't really any need for any system besides what I've got. Win percentages like 97% are that high because they are for institutions, which is exactly what I am.

I won't ever look at trading any differently than I do now, but having it figured out at 27 is much more important than having it figured out at 50 when most people start doing the heart of their careers in their lifetimes.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

So where is my gift? Do I have to be glued to the screen all day?

ES
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Sorry ES

I was a little slow at picking up on your humor. :D

I'll reveal it when I retire, I promise.



PS You are very polite.
:)
 
In Van Tharp's book, he mentions a trader who has a system with an expectancy of .5. Although his profitable trades are equal to his losing trades, he wins 75% of the time.

At 5 trades a day, or about 100 trades a month, and risking 1% per trade, this guy could be making 50% every month. (Actually, he says that he has 500K in capital and a 10MM credit line, and he could be making 100MM every year, but he has problems trading size.)

I read that and I think two things: 1) "Yep, that sure sounds like the closest thing to a holy grail I've ever heard of." and 2) "I find this really, really hard to believe."

Anyone making 50% a month has something resembling a Holy Grail. My question is: is this really possible, or simply unbelievable?
 
Quote from Fishmonster123:

In Van Tharp's book, he mentions a trader who has a system with an expectancy of .5. Although his profitable trades are equal to his losing trades, he wins 75% of the time.

At 5 trades a day, or about 100 trades a month, and risking 1% per trade, this guy could be making 50% every month. (Actually, he says that he has 500K in capital and a 10MM credit line, and he could be making 100MM every year, but he has problems trading size.)

I read that and I think two things: 1) "Yep, that sure sounds like the closest thing to a holy grail I've ever heard of." and 2) "I find this really, really hard to believe."

Anyone making 50% a month has something resembling a Holy Grail. My question is: is this really possible, or simply unbelievable?
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Fishmonster123:

My winning % is 74% since inception 29 months ago. My system does not permit me to trade 5 times a day. It averages out to about 2.2 DAYS per trade, or around 10 per month for an average profit of 4.28% per month, not compounded.

My risk per trade is .362% of trading capital. (total accumulated losses divided by total # of trades divided by trade margin) My winnings have outnumbered my losses by 2.11 to 1

I have never traded with that kind of frequency. It just is not my style (options trader). 50% per month sounds great. Possible, I wouldn't know. If Holy Grail may mean consistency, I have it in spades.
 
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=230215


He doubled his account in 3 days (He posted every trade).



Quote from Fishmonster123:

In Van Tharp's book, he mentions a trader who has a system with an expectancy of .5. Although his profitable trades are equal to his losing trades, he wins 75% of the time.

At 5 trades a day, or about 100 trades a month, and risking 1% per trade, this guy could be making 50% every month. (Actually, he says that he has 500K in capital and a 10MM credit line, and he could be making 100MM every year, but he has problems trading size.)

I read that and I think two things: 1) "Yep, that sure sounds like the closest thing to a holy grail I've ever heard of." and 2) "I find this really, really hard to believe."

Anyone making 50% a month has something resembling a Holy Grail. My question is: is this really possible, or simply unbelievable?
More...
 
Pelagos - congrats. Looks like you've figured out a way to be consistent. That's what I'm aiming for. One question - why only risk .36% per trade? Why not bump it up a small amount, to .67, or 1%. Given your results, your drawdowns would be small, right?
 
Quote from Fishmonster123:

Pelagos - congrats. Looks like you've figured out a way to be consistent. That's what I'm aiming for. One question - why only risk .36% per trade? Why not bump it up a small amount, to .67, or 1%. Given your results, your drawdowns would be small, right?
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Reg T margin rules established my leverage initially and I stuck with it.

IB and prime brokers offer more leverage but who wants the added risk.

My biggest drawdown was 8%. I have had half a dozen above 4%. This mornings gap cost me 3.9%. It's been four months since I saw a loss this bad. Given the tail risk, I'm comfortable with the Reg T level of margin. .36 is just an average.

This crazy whipsaw news-driven market has given me 7 consecutive losers through this morning. My previous consecutive loss streak after 277 trades was 3.
 
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