Looks that way. But no. The reason behind the buys is fundamental and sentimental. And as shown in my thread, tactical.
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Finding an Edge
- Thread starter Alfing
- Start date
Usually trend following refers following trends blindly based on just the fact there is a trend. Again no edge here anymore.Which is why trend following works.
My stuff is different
I've never understood why people start out trying intraday. Use 3 time frames. Weekly, Daily and 4hr. Decide which day to buy, and use the 4hr stick to time the buy. Make sure it's all in the direction of the weekly momentum. Otherwise, wait. Learn about negative divergences. As price moves towards support/resistance, learn about M's and W's. There are many types. Then learn about relative M's and W's based on momentum (%b is a good way to identify). If price moves in V shapes, wait for another setup, as it's gone. It's really not rocket science.
Figure this out before you go shorter time frames. Or, you know, you could continue to bang your head against intraday without understanding these concepts. Either way, it's your time and money.
Figure this out before you go shorter time frames. Or, you know, you could continue to bang your head against intraday without understanding these concepts. Either way, it's your time and money.
there is not 'an edge', but there is 'the edge', which is the trader himself.
'an edge' can erode. 'the edge' means you read market well as a discretionary, or you program well as a systematic.
see my 'trading is easy' thread, an example of how you get an edge.
There is more and more unnecessary information in that thread. Which particular posts do you have in mind?
When this question is asked, its normally when a novice trader has a little bit of knowledge, nut not enough to know how to create a workable strategy.
As someone that's traded successfully for years, the most beneficial thing you can do is to stop looking for edge. Instead, pick an instrument you are interested in trading and study how price moves within the instrument for 2 hours a day for at least a year. Break down the bars bar by bar as each tells a story. Use logical reasoning to determine why these bars form the way they do. Why is important. Once you understand how each bar reacts and why in different areas of a chart, you have enough information to begin to create edge.
Where can one learn more about bars that one does not understand yet? Is there a good bar guide?
Edge... is basically whether or not you have mastered the art of reading price action on a chart to day trade futures/stocks/currencies; or mastered analyzing volatility to trade derivatives.
It is not some secret sauce, it is just hard work, effort and vision.
I'd also add direction. One can work very hard and still get nowhere.
trend-following is a pattern, it's NOT an edge.
check CTA performance in recent years.. no edge there anymore.... that's what I meant by 'an edge will erode'.
I've never looked at CTA performances, I'm not sure how comparable their trading is to mine.
But do you mean CTA's found that prices don't trend at all, or just that they do trend but they made a loss by following the trends?
maybe there is little committed counter trading against the rise/fall. this often happens at the beginning of a bear or bull move,when traders do not trade since they are not sure of the trendIt always amazes me how a price can rise/fall with little volume. One observation is it falls faster.
Es
yes of course there is no edge-you are doing what the others are doing and that is the most sensible thing to do.and that is why you make money.Usually trend following refers following trends blindly based on just the fact there is a trend. Again no edge here anymore.
My stuff is different
also to change the trend the market needs to take a lot of time and work for a long time,fir a sustainable change of trend so you as a trader gets plenty of warning about the impending change.
so all this makes it sensible just to follow the trend