Find the edge :)

M

MrMuppet

So I found a little gem while cleanign up my notes...can't remember the source thought.

Let's see if you guys can figure out potential trades:

Expiration: 90 days, Interest: 0%, Size on each quote: 1000

upload_2021-7-3_0-28-22.png






Some guy walks in and offers 200 straddles at 4.15
What do you do and how do you trade? Bonus points for calculating the implied vol.

Have fun!

By the way, if anyone remembers the blog this was posted on, please drop me a line

Edit: I added the quotes as a picture, since I could not get the formating right via text
 
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MrMuppet said:
Some guy walks in and offers 200 straddles at 4.15
What do you do and how do you trade? Bonus points for calculating the implied vol.

Have fun!
More...

Looks like it's trading 55, with an IV of ~0.195. And if that's the case, then the 60 calls are overpriced almost double, while the 65s are underpriced by nearly the same amount. "Some guy" aside, I'd be wanting to sell a bunch of those 60s and wing them off for a nickel per lot. :)

As to dealing with the guy... sorry, got me there. Never been a floor trader, so I have no clue. I mean, he's hitting the bid - if you take his offer, you'd end up gamma-neutral and delta of close enough to it (0.044 per lot, or about 8.72 for 200.) Not much to hedge to start with.

First time I've ever done this - how bad did I screw up? :)

P.S. Crap, I just realized you'd be buying gamma on both sides. Make that 0.15 per lot rather than neutral.
 
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BlueWaterSailor said:
Looks like it's trading 55, with an IV of ~0.195. And if that's the case, then the 60 calls are overpriced almost double, while the 65s are underpriced by nearly the same amount. "Some guy" aside, I'd be wanting to sell a bunch of those 60s and wing them off for a nickel per lot. :)

As to dealing with the guy... sorry, got me there. Never been a floor trader, so I have no clue. I mean, he's hitting the bid - if you take his offer, you'd end up gamma-neutral and delta of close enough to it (0.044 per lot, or about 8.72 for 200.) Not much to hedge to start with.

First time I've ever done this - how bad did I screw up? :)

P.S. Crap, I just realized you'd be buying gamma on both sides. Make that 0.15 per lot rather than neutral.
More...
Not bad, dude. I guess you translated everything into vols and went from there. 60 is overpriced, yes and 65 are too low...in vol. Fly is also a good start

There is over 1$ premium of edge in this if you make the right trades.
What about the other option guys @Same Lazy Element @newwurldmn et al?

My guess is @Robert Morse is just laughing at this as he was on the options floor, but pls dude, if you read this...let the others have some fun, too^^
 
MrMuppet said:
Not bad, dude. I guess you translated everything into vols and went from there. 60 is overpriced, yes and 65 are too low...in vol. Fly is also a good start
More...

Woohoo! :) Thank you - I'm pretty jazzed about that. Awesome!

There is over 1$ premium of edge in this if you make the right trades.
More...

Can't wait to see this play out...
 
1) Call fly. Buy 55, Sell 2x 60, buy 65, even if done at the bid/asks, would cost a mere 0.15,
with potential max profit of 4.85. Of course, this max is never gonna hit in reality, but it's a good risk/reward.

2) Call credit spread. Sell 60, buy 65 for 1.00 cr (risk 4.00), and expect to close when the vol skew flattens out. Or do the 55-60 debit spread for 1.15.

3) Buy 100 shares for 55, buy 55P for 2.10 (mid), sell 60C for 1.05.
Max loss is 1.05 (if stock falls), max gain is 3.95 (stock rises to 60+).


I won't mention what stock I think this is.
 
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ffs1001 said:
1) Call fly. Buy 55, Sell 2x 60, buy 65, even if done at the bid/asks, would cost a mere 0.15,
with potential max profit of 4.85. Of course, this max is never gonna hit in reality, but it's a good risk/reward.

2) Call credit spread. Sell 60, buy 65 for 1.00 cr (risk 4.00), and expect to close when the vol skew flattens out. Or do the 55-60 debit spread for 1.15.

3) Buy 100 shares for 55, buy 55P for 2.10 (mid), sell 60C for 1.05.
Max loss is 1.05 (if stock falls), max gain is 3.95 (stock rises to 60+).


I won't mention what stock I think this is.
More...
these are all good risk rewards, but the edge I mentioned is an arb. Also this is a hypothetical example. I don't think you'll gonna find anything like that in a live market anymore.

Again: Look at the synthetics
 
MrMuppet said:
Let's see if you guys can figure out potential trades:
More...
Well, this isn't the trade that you are implying. Maybe get some other ideas.

Sell 400 55Cs @ 2.15

Buy 20,000s for the conversion.

Any edge here depends on the exact price of the UL

No 1.00 edge, just my first impression.
 
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