Quote from illiquid:
Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not after you.
Seriously though, the die-hard pessimists seem to make the worst traders. Bill Fleckenstein makes lovely (and perhaps accurate) arguments for a coming collapse in domestic equities, but it's kinda sad to see him still waiting for a "safe time to go short" and getting shaken out after every hundred-point rally. I guess most permabears are still somewhat shellshocked since '00. But it doesn't necessarily mean their arguments should be completely dismissed.
"Seriously" ? Oh yeah "seriously" history has proved indeed that those who pretended to be "serious" were in fact laughable and that the very argument being "serious" just reveals that you try to hide behind a smiley whereas you have absolutly none of real argument ! Just read below and dare say that you won't reflect yourself like in a mirror:
In 1929 writing a "Special Letter" to his Babson Reports on October 14th explaining twelve characteristics of a "bear market.", Roger Babson's made a serious warning and this is what the "die-hard optimists" answered which proved unconstestably their pretentious silliness ... the same kind of answer you can hear today from the ever-gullible-of-new-age-era:
Even prior to this response to an already sagging 1929 stock market, Babson had been suggesting that the level of credit (which might more properly called debt) was much too high for a sustainable economy and implored everyone to eliminate his debts less he become sucked into the vortex of a market collapse. In the Retail Ledger of January, 1928 an article runs, "Babson Fears End of Prosperity: Can't Last Forever, He Says in His Year's Message to Business. (Jan. 17)."
Put your business and your personal affairs on a safe foundation.
Get out of debt, wholly if possible, otherwise, reduce your indebtedness as much as possible.
There is no reason why the wheel of fortune will not continue to turn for many generations as it has in the past. Panics and depressions may some day be eliminated, but little has yet been done to bring such a millennium about. The Federal Reserve system may have put banks in an impregnable position, but it has not changed human nature.
People are in debt today to an extent never before. Sooner or later the dam will break, to be followed by unemployment, failures and hard times.
This reply in the Clients Service Bulletin by the American Appraisal Company dated January, 1928 follows Babson's prouncement:
If enough folks will interpret the admonition about the "safe foundation" and the "budget system" as a direct warning that they better have an appraisal right away, "we," speaking editorially and personally, eventually or possibly by about next December may be able to comply with the instructions about debt. But at this writing what with Christmas bills on the one hand and March 15th on the other, we view the suggestion "Get out of debt" with the same perplexity as the bashful young man who had been advised to "assume an easy and graceful attitude in the presence of ladies." However, we'll do our derndest, Roger, and thanks for giving us the idea. It always has seemed to us that what you say about service is the best or at least the safest policy to pursue.
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Hahahahaha laughable no to read this : 'we view the suggestion "Get out of debt" with the same perplexity as the bashful young man who had been advised to "assume an easy and graceful attitude in the presence of ladies."'
That's why those who pretend to make laugh of that will be the ones who will be catched in their stupidity and pretention.
