First of all, I did not boast. It was just the opposite, I said I was humbled by how LITTLE I knew (unlike other overconfident members here who think they know it all).
I would be more than happy to read your "paper" and rip it apart figuratively speaking. Let me know if I can get an electronic version.
I don't know man, you are a moderator here, I'd assume you were smart, but how freaking dumb can you be not to understand something so SIMPLE! Let's say you dig and dig and dig and find that if you short a small cap firm that is the top gainer for the day and close the position the next day, you'll earn excess returns. Did you find an inefficiency? Yes. Does it show EMH is baloney? NO!!! It's a normative MODEL, it shows how things behave and why they behave this way. Just b/c there are potholes in the road and you have found another one does not mean the road is not there and is not useable. Unless you show another road that's better. Yes, there are anomalies that are hard to reconcile with EMH, January effect being one of them. I was not using any circular logic. I said it's not EASY to exploit it. If it were, you could take as much debt as you could buy in December, sell in January take the rest of the year off. If it were that easy, there would not be people bitching here on ET about how their trading sucks. Also, as I said, the effect has been shown to become very elusive lately, b/c it has become more known and exploited - exactly as EMH would predict.
The anomalies that people dig up are scattered all over the place. There is NO systematic model to show they are not random and to explain them. So, I repeat again, hoping you'd eventually get it, unless you offer something better than EMH, showing how EMH doesn't appear to work in some case and how it should be scrapped it like saying: "The goverment system we have in the US sucks b/c of this and that, so let's f#cking dump it and not have any gov't instead!"
I would be more than happy to read your "paper" and rip it apart figuratively speaking. Let me know if I can get an electronic version.
I don't know man, you are a moderator here, I'd assume you were smart, but how freaking dumb can you be not to understand something so SIMPLE! Let's say you dig and dig and dig and find that if you short a small cap firm that is the top gainer for the day and close the position the next day, you'll earn excess returns. Did you find an inefficiency? Yes. Does it show EMH is baloney? NO!!! It's a normative MODEL, it shows how things behave and why they behave this way. Just b/c there are potholes in the road and you have found another one does not mean the road is not there and is not useable. Unless you show another road that's better. Yes, there are anomalies that are hard to reconcile with EMH, January effect being one of them. I was not using any circular logic. I said it's not EASY to exploit it. If it were, you could take as much debt as you could buy in December, sell in January take the rest of the year off. If it were that easy, there would not be people bitching here on ET about how their trading sucks. Also, as I said, the effect has been shown to become very elusive lately, b/c it has become more known and exploited - exactly as EMH would predict.
The anomalies that people dig up are scattered all over the place. There is NO systematic model to show they are not random and to explain them. So, I repeat again, hoping you'd eventually get it, unless you offer something better than EMH, showing how EMH doesn't appear to work in some case and how it should be scrapped it like saying: "The goverment system we have in the US sucks b/c of this and that, so let's f#cking dump it and not have any gov't instead!"
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