Finally a Winning Intraday System
- Thread starter wdbaker
- Start date
willibald,
I haven't seen any traders paradise threads in here, only general discussions about the system. I was told however that someone by the name of 'Zizou' has mastered trading this sytem, to the point that he has quit his job to trade it. I didn't talk to the guy, but it seems he could be reached at the traders paradise thread at stockhits.com. This is where I got the link to the message I posted earlier by the guy who invented the whole thing (theee man), whom I messaged and he replied back with some trading records showing how the system performed during the last 6 months. Very impressive, which leads me to think there is a lot of subjectivity in this system. The guy also insists that the system shouldn't be fully automated since he considers the fine tuning part the most important of the whole system. This is where you have to deal with previous gaps, support and resistance levels, etc, affecting the way you manage each trade.
Anyway, I am currently testing the system on a trade by trade basis. Last week, the guy posted a live commentary on stockhits.com where he tipped a short trade which resulted on a 30 ndx profit points. I'll keep an eye on those tips for at least 3-6 months, and then I'll come up with my own valuation of the system.
Good Trading !
I haven't seen any traders paradise threads in here, only general discussions about the system. I was told however that someone by the name of 'Zizou' has mastered trading this sytem, to the point that he has quit his job to trade it. I didn't talk to the guy, but it seems he could be reached at the traders paradise thread at stockhits.com. This is where I got the link to the message I posted earlier by the guy who invented the whole thing (theee man), whom I messaged and he replied back with some trading records showing how the system performed during the last 6 months. Very impressive, which leads me to think there is a lot of subjectivity in this system. The guy also insists that the system shouldn't be fully automated since he considers the fine tuning part the most important of the whole system. This is where you have to deal with previous gaps, support and resistance levels, etc, affecting the way you manage each trade.
Anyway, I am currently testing the system on a trade by trade basis. Last week, the guy posted a live commentary on stockhits.com where he tipped a short trade which resulted on a 30 ndx profit points. I'll keep an eye on those tips for at least 3-6 months, and then I'll come up with my own valuation of the system.
Good Trading !
Here is the summary for 18mo's Nq 5min data trading one contract with beginning balance of $5000.00
The commissions include $5 for rt and $25 for slippage(yes I could have made it $20 but didn't feel like changing the setting)
Equity curve to follow
Still looking for a partner
wdbaker
See Below(read, scroll way down)
<HEAD>
<TITLE>AmiBroker System Test Report</TITLE><STYLE>
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<BODY>
<TABLE CELLSPACING=2 WIDTH=100%>
<TR bgcolor="#CCCCCC"><TH COLSPAN=5 class="BIG">Overall performance summary</TH></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Total net profit:</TH><TD>184670.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Total commissions paid:</TH><TD>58920.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Return on account:</TH><TD>3693.40 %
</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Open position gain/loss</TH><TD>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TH>Buy&Hold profit:</TH><TD>-32150.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Bars (avg. days) in test:</TH><TD>32579 (553)</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Buy&Hold % return:</TH><TD>-643.00%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>System to Buy&Hold index:</TH><TD>674.40%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Annual system % return:</TD><TD>1002.09%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Annual B&H % return:</TH><TD> N/A </TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>System drawdown:</TH><TD>-770.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H drawdown:</TH><TD>-32950.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. system drawdown:</TH><TD>-6000.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H max. drawdown:</TH><TD>-39380.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. system % drawdown:</TH><TD>-49.90%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H max. % drawdown:</TH><TD>-704.52%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. trade drawdown:</TH><TD>-6000.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. trade % drawdown:</TH><TD>-37.70%</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Trade drawdown:</TH><TD>-2100.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Total number of trades:</TH><TD>1964</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Percent profitable:</TH><TD>49.4%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Number winning trades:</TH><TD>970</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Number losing trades:</TH><TD>994</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Profit of winners:</TH><TD>351610.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Loss of losers:</TH><TD>-166940.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Total # of bars in winners:</TH><TD>20625</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Total # of bars in losers:</TH><TD>10688</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Commissions paid in winners:</TH><TD>29100.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Commissions paid in losers:</TH><TD>29820.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Largest winning trade:</TH><TD>7310.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Largest losing trade:</TH><TD>-1450.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH># of bars in largest winner:</TH><TD>41</TD><TD> </TD><TH># bars in largest loser:</TH><TD>17</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Commission paid in largest winner:</TH><TD>30.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Commission paid in largest loser:</TH><TD>30.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Average winning trade:</TH><TD>362.48</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Average losing trade:</TH><TD>-167.95</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Avg. # of bars in winners:</TH><TD> 21.3</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. # bars in losers:</TH><TD> 10.8</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Avg. commission paid in winner:</TH><TD>30.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. commission paid in loser:</TH><TD>30.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max consec. winners:</TH><TD>13</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Max consec. losers:</TH><TD>9</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Bars out of the market:</TH><TD>2622</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Interest earned:</TH><TD>0.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Exposure:</TH><TD>92.0%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Risk adjusted ann. return:</TH><TD>1089.80%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Ratio avg win/avg loss:</TH><TD>2.16</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. trade (win & loss):</TH><TD>94.03</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Profit factor:</TH><TD>2.11</TD><TD> </TD><TH></TH><TD></TD></TR></TABLE>
The commissions include $5 for rt and $25 for slippage(yes I could have made it $20 but didn't feel like changing the setting)
Equity curve to follow
Still looking for a partner
wdbaker
See Below(read, scroll way down)
<HEAD>
<TITLE>AmiBroker System Test Report</TITLE><STYLE>
<!--
BODY { font-family:"Tahoma,Arial,Helvetica,Sans Serif"; font-size:8pt; }
TD { font-size:8pt; text-align: right; }
TH { font-size:8pt; text-align: left; font-weight:normal; }
.BIG { font-size:10pt; font-weight:bold; text-align: center; }
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</STYLE></HEAD>
<BODY>
<TABLE CELLSPACING=2 WIDTH=100%>
<TR bgcolor="#CCCCCC"><TH COLSPAN=5 class="BIG">Overall performance summary</TH></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Total net profit:</TH><TD>184670.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Total commissions paid:</TH><TD>58920.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Return on account:</TH><TD>3693.40 %
</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Open position gain/loss</TH><TD>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TH>Buy&Hold profit:</TH><TD>-32150.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Bars (avg. days) in test:</TH><TD>32579 (553)</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Buy&Hold % return:</TH><TD>-643.00%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>System to Buy&Hold index:</TH><TD>674.40%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Annual system % return:</TD><TD>1002.09%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Annual B&H % return:</TH><TD> N/A </TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>System drawdown:</TH><TD>-770.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H drawdown:</TH><TD>-32950.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. system drawdown:</TH><TD>-6000.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H max. drawdown:</TH><TD>-39380.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. system % drawdown:</TH><TD>-49.90%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>B&H max. % drawdown:</TH><TD>-704.52%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. trade drawdown:</TH><TD>-6000.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max. trade % drawdown:</TH><TD>-37.70%</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Trade drawdown:</TH><TD>-2100.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH> </TH><TD> </TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Total number of trades:</TH><TD>1964</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Percent profitable:</TH><TD>49.4%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Number winning trades:</TH><TD>970</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Number losing trades:</TH><TD>994</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Profit of winners:</TH><TD>351610.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Loss of losers:</TH><TD>-166940.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Total # of bars in winners:</TH><TD>20625</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Total # of bars in losers:</TH><TD>10688</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Commissions paid in winners:</TH><TD>29100.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Commissions paid in losers:</TH><TD>29820.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Largest winning trade:</TH><TD>7310.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Largest losing trade:</TH><TD>-1450.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH># of bars in largest winner:</TH><TD>41</TD><TD> </TD><TH># bars in largest loser:</TH><TD>17</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Commission paid in largest winner:</TH><TD>30.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Commission paid in largest loser:</TH><TD>30.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Average winning trade:</TH><TD>362.48</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Average losing trade:</TH><TD>-167.95</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Avg. # of bars in winners:</TH><TD> 21.3</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. # bars in losers:</TH><TD> 10.8</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Avg. commission paid in winner:</TH><TD>30.00</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. commission paid in loser:</TH><TD>30.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Max consec. winners:</TH><TD>13</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Max consec. losers:</TH><TD>9</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Bars out of the market:</TH><TD>2622</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Interest earned:</TH><TD>0.00</TD></TR>
<TR><TH COLSPAN=5> </TH></TR>
<TR><TH>Exposure:</TH><TD>92.0%</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Risk adjusted ann. return:</TH><TD>1089.80%</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Ratio avg win/avg loss:</TH><TD>2.16</TD><TD> </TD><TH>Avg. trade (win & loss):</TH><TD>94.03</TD></TR>
<TR><TH>Profit factor:</TH><TD>2.11</TD><TD> </TD><TH></TH><TD></TD></TR></TABLE>
Also hate to let you down, but a downer to this system is as follows:
Your average time for a winner is 16.7 bars, which is over 3 weeks if trading daily charts. And your total number of trades, which I assume is 12 months, is 657, or nearly 3 per day. So, run the numbers, and you will see that in order to make this system even close to profitable, you will need to be heavily capitalized. You will need to carry an average of 3 trades per day for over 3 weeks, each and every day. And that's not including the losers!
Thanks, but...no thanks.
Your average time for a winner is 16.7 bars, which is over 3 weeks if trading daily charts. And your total number of trades, which I assume is 12 months, is 657, or nearly 3 per day. So, run the numbers, and you will see that in order to make this system even close to profitable, you will need to be heavily capitalized. You will need to carry an average of 3 trades per day for over 3 weeks, each and every day. And that's not including the losers!
Thanks, but...no thanks.
wdbaker,
All you need to trade this system is enough margin for 1 ES or NQ contract, plus enough to cover you if you start with a drawdown. $8000 or so would be plenty. If you are confident enough in the system to risk $8000 of MY money, why dont you just get a personal loan or put the cash on a credit card and trade it with YOUR money instead? Sell your car. Ask your family. Almost anyone can come by a few thousand dollars. If you dont have the confidence in your system to risk your car or credit, why should I risk my money with you?
I'm not suggesting that traders finance their accounts with VISA. The pressure from such a thing would make trading very difficult. But if I had something that required so little startup costs and I *knew* would make my money back in 1 month...why not?
Wdbaker, you need to look alot harder at your system. Anticipate the many flaws that will be exposed when real trading starts. Get input from sources like the people at ET. Get your system into the hands of experienced traders who can tell you if and why you will have problems. After your system has had all the holes plugged, then you will have the confidence to bet your car on it. Right now you don't have that confidence. Neither will anybody else have the confidence to lend you money.
The wealth-lab website is full of overoptimized rubbish that makes a million dollars on paper. What wealth-lab has really done is bring TradeStation overoptimization to the masses. The real deal is alot tougher.
All you need to trade this system is enough margin for 1 ES or NQ contract, plus enough to cover you if you start with a drawdown. $8000 or so would be plenty. If you are confident enough in the system to risk $8000 of MY money, why dont you just get a personal loan or put the cash on a credit card and trade it with YOUR money instead? Sell your car. Ask your family. Almost anyone can come by a few thousand dollars. If you dont have the confidence in your system to risk your car or credit, why should I risk my money with you?
I'm not suggesting that traders finance their accounts with VISA. The pressure from such a thing would make trading very difficult. But if I had something that required so little startup costs and I *knew* would make my money back in 1 month...why not?
Wdbaker, you need to look alot harder at your system. Anticipate the many flaws that will be exposed when real trading starts. Get input from sources like the people at ET. Get your system into the hands of experienced traders who can tell you if and why you will have problems. After your system has had all the holes plugged, then you will have the confidence to bet your car on it. Right now you don't have that confidence. Neither will anybody else have the confidence to lend you money.
The wealth-lab website is full of overoptimized rubbish that makes a million dollars on paper. What wealth-lab has really done is bring TradeStation overoptimization to the masses. The real deal is alot tougher.
I agree with you on doing it myself, unfortunately I work full time and am strapped for cash, everything I have I owe money on, I have about 1500 and a friend will loan me another 1500 but I am not comfortable with only 3000 to start, need about 10000 to feel safe with drawdowns etc... Have no family or credit cards to turn to for cash. I can wait it out if I need to, just would like to get this thing going. As far as the system goes there is nothing to over optimize it is simple, easy, and works on all time frames, stocks and futures.
I grew up in sales and found out that if you don't ask, you don't get.
wdbaker
Quah,
I would love nothing more than to do that, problem is that I work during the day so do not have time to closely monitor the market. Also I do not have the real time version of Amibroker and also need to hook up with an outside data vendor, might have to switch to Trade Station but that would cost me $200 a month for intraday.
I'll try to figure something out, I'm not one to give up easy.
wdbaker