First i would like to thank you for replying to my efforts to test the Woodies CCI system. Second i would like to address the limitations and folly of representing opinions as fact in this forum.
My aim is to fully test the CCI system for one month on live data and market order entry on 3 stock market indexes;YM, ER, NQ. I will post images of every trade, my comments, and the simulated P/L.
The truth is that %90 of people will lose money even when given a winning strategy to trade. The CCI system is a trend following indicator period. It is not the HOLY GRAIL. It is a reliable indicator for identifying a trend and gives definable entry and exit signals.Take the trade set your stop and 1st target then walk away, then when you hit first target move stop to entry plus one and wait for CCI exit or stop out. It is vey boring and %90 of people cant stand to sit and wait for a signal so they take impulse trades and lose big because they dont set stops. Figure that out of one hundred trades you break even on costs on 90 trades and make your profit on the 10 runners that you hit. Thats only if you have enough confidence in your sytem to have several losing days in a row at times. If you can say that you had a good week of trading even when you lost on 3 of 5 days and ended down %5 but followed your plan to the tee you might be ready to survive this journey. Lets say NQ generates 100 trade signals a month thats 5 a day a very reasonable and likely number from my observations, of those 20 trades a week 2 runners will make your bottom line and if you miss them tough no do overs. The posters who spend all this precious time proving a negative need to focus on an endeavor that they can succeed in rather than looking for reasons for their failure. If CCI fails I will move on to something else but I will have learned a ton about trend following systems.
One of the reasons that the ten trades out of a hundred strategy works for me is that is how alot of regular businesses work. In the bar business the sunday thru thursday trade keeps the doors open and friday and saturday pays the bills at home. same with retail January thru october keep the lights on November and December makes it worth it.
Backtesting is worthless, This is a quote from the article link above bashing CCI and telling a weird fable of heroic tradestation code writing and backtesting of CCI. âTesting any system mechanically will most likely result in a negative outcome. I do not believe that a system has ever existed, or that ever will exist, that you can program into a computer that will trade a market profitably over the long run.â