Filters & KISS methods

Quote from T-REX:

I say we demonstrate "LIVE" here on ET the rationale behind these various market timing systems.

I have a live simulation on Tuesday regarding the "2 Bar Charlie Method"!

Why doesnt somebody simulate their methodology as well. That way we could either prove or disprove of the many myths regarding trading systems in realtime live!

:D :D :D

Then we will see just how complex or simple some of these BS methods "REALY ARE" and we will see if they "REALLY WORK".
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You have a good suggestion.

I do not have the capability to demonstrate "live" on ET because of my method.

I just added IB here to get some account outputs that are familiar to people, etc.

My first afternoon on it I ran the demo and was told that the IB demo is unsatisfactory to people on ET. It is too easy to use.

I have done one midday set of trades; that frequency of trades can be done live on ET because it is a slow time. We only got 2.4 times the H/L range during midday so you can see doing it here would not only be slow but it only added up to 6 points.

There probably is not way here to get something like you suggest to happen. The am and pm trading on ES is too much for ET to handle live. Prints of trading, especially the demo, are not considered satisfactory. I provided as trading description on one since the print was not intelligible to ET folk. There was no reply to the description.

A week or so ago there was a challenge, but the posts were not followed by most. That is in the sense that they knew what was going on.

What you suggest is a good idea. Maybe there will be some reasonable discussion of your thoughts.
 
Quote from Grob109:



You have a good suggestion.

I do not have the capability to demonstrate "live" on ET because of my method.

I just added IB here to get some account outputs that are familiar to people, etc.

My first afternoon on it I ran the demo and was told that the IB demo is unsatisfactory to people on ET. It is too easy to use.

I have done one midday set of trades; that frequency of trades can be done live on ET because it is a slow time. We only got 2.4 times the H/L range during midday so you can see doing it here would not only be slow but it only added up to 6 points.

There probably is not way here to get something like you suggest to happen. The am and pm trading on ES is too much for ET to handle live. Prints of trading, especially the demo, are not considered satisfactory. I provided as trading description on one since the print was not intelligible to ET folk. There was no reply to the description.

A week or so ago there was a challenge, but the posts were not followed by most. That is in the sense that they knew what was going on.

What you suggest is a good idea. Maybe there will be some reasonable discussion of your thoughts.
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You are right! However, regarding the challenge. I did not care if many people watched or not. I just wanted to prove to the various knuckle heads (they know who they are) that I dont just talk the talk I walk the walk. I guess they assumed that I was joking but after they saw my trading in realtime that shut em up!
My point is I think that It would be rather interesting if we tested a bunch of methods here on ET to see if these popular methods of trading, daytrading etc. hold any weight in realtime or if its just hype to sale newsletter subscriptions and mechanical systems that have no real merrit in realtime trading?
 
T-Rex, I am going to attend your live demnstration of charlie, will you be the chat room, or in a thread?

Thanks.

Ooops, I see the thread.
 
Quote from inandlong:

T-Rex, I am going to attend your live demnstration of charlie, will you be the chat room, or in a thread?

Thanks.

Ooops, I see the thread.
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I was thinking about the thread.
 
T-REX I look forward to Tuesday's demo.

The chat last week re: Strategy Runner brought up an interesting concept of creating a "market" for TA systems. Unfortunately strategy runner just deals in futures and needs proprietary system conversion.

Imagine a site where you could update your (single favorite) system's trades in real time. The server would independently validate prices and monitor system performances. Traders working for the site would invest capital in the best systems and pay system-providers commissions based on actual utilized performance.

Now for a problems list:
- rapid orders will lag terribly (only slower systems need apply)
- no owners of good systems will apply as their capital returns are greater than a commission

- any other problems?


Does this already exist? it is in another thread?
 
additional problem:

- unless the system can be backtested using a proprietary technique, real-time results will take years to become meaningful
 
Quote from prophet:



There is no easy answer.

There are plenty of common sense, simple strategies, enhancements, and publicly available systems that are net profitable but perhaps have undesirable risk, deep drawdowns, or only work in certain markets.
-> Easy to find, high risk

There are simple strategies that can be successfully improved through simple methods such as performance monitoring, stops, filters, hedging, inter-market diversification or combined with other systems or fundamental analysis.
-> Harder to find, less risk

There are sophisticated strategies that fail because they are too complex, “curve fit” past market action and can’t generalize future action, or lead to excessive volatility in returns.
-> Easy to find, high risk.

There are sophisticated strategies that succeed because they are internally diversified, “lateral” in design, either profiting from multiple market inefficiencies/patterns or a few patterns well conserved over time, but hidden nonetheless. Adaptive systems can work too as long as the adaptive elements are lateral, robust and well monitored and controlled.
-> Very hard to find, lower risk.

There is everything in between these extremes. Millions of traders, investors and intelligent agents (adaptive systems) are searching for low risk systems and strategies (mechanical or discretionary). The more a strategy becomes profitable and well known, the more it is traded, the more it’s execution prices worsen. Alternatively, more sophisticated participants may catch on to a popular system and recognize that the ones trading it are risk adverse, then step into the markets to fade it, purposely causing others to hit their stops or get squeezed, causing predictable breakouts or mean reversions. Again, a popular strategy becomes less profitable. Sometimes there are cycles where the markets move from one phase to another. Periods of uncertainty, tight ranges and stagnation alternate with periods of trending, greed and fear. Often there is a continual evolution of what works and doesn’t. In my experience a low risk system requires extensive study of markets, either in real-time or through back testing and forward testing systems. One needs to find a novel strategy not already being traded and thus not subject to being overloaded or faded. Real money trading is important too. However it’s also possible to learn about markets and develop a system through papertrading alone, as long as one properly accounts for slippage, or have traded enough to understand size, liquidity and slippage factors.
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Prophetic! :D
 
Quote from OddTrader:



Prophetic! :D
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Hate to burst your bubble but that is a bunch of CRAP excreted from the anus of academia!!! Please do not take this as an attack against you personally. I mean no disrespect.

Just because something sounds good doesnt mean its deep or makes sense. Though eloquent non the less.


Lets cut through the BS:

"The more a strategy becomes profitable and well known, the more it is traded, the more it’s execution prices worsen. Alternatively, more sophisticated participants may catch on to a popular system and recognize that the ones trading it are risk adverse, then step into the markets to fade it, purposely causing others to hit their stops or get squeezed, causing predictable breakouts or mean reversions. Again, a popular strategy becomes less profitable."

You are asuming an effecient market hypothesis?
WRONG! ..............Example: FOREX market is traded about 100x the NYSE volume on a daily basis. NO market makers, no order matching.

As for fills. you would need to control a vast fortune of the underlining contract or stock in order to move the market and "Run Stops"!
"Running Stops" is the biggest myth created by losing traders everywhere!!! AS if there is a BIG BAD WOLF on the trading floor just waiting to "stop you out" at a loss. Come on Dude! you have to do better than that.

The only true statement made above is the fact that many want success without risk. Profit without loss. They will continue to lose.
 
I agree with T-REX. Fact is, there is not one documented case of secret system that worked great, then stopped working once it was revealed (if you don't count illegal insider trading :D ).

In fact you can find just the opposite. LBR group posts their good trades and methods on their website. The same good trades appear over and over again.

It's really silly if you think about it in the context of a particular method. For example, gap fading. One of the most basic trades. It doesn't work because everyone knows about it? That's a laugh. Can't get a good execution price? Bigger laugh. Doesn't work? 30% of the time, something like that. Became less profitable? Less profitable than the first guy who faded a gap back in 1753 on the tulip market, or whatever? How did that go?

"Daaaaaammn, Nikolai, we all thought it would still go up!"

"Hahah, I saw you all looking at each other wondering who would buy next! So I sold! Bwahahahah!"

True, I guess gap fading is less profitable now.

 
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