Figure itm

C

clarodina

How to figure the prob of otm put and call would be itm at expiry?

Open and sold a call 30days and a put 10days

Or are they consider individually according to their expiry period?
 
This is the way I have always done it but others in this forum have provided a more detailed way to do it. To me the delta is an estimate anyway because it's created from assumption. I feel all the greeks and option values are estimates. If you have actual values, that would be worth $$$$$$$
 
Delta would do but the problem is the sold call is 10days but the puts is 30days

In this different duration delta combined of the two would not do

Or are these two individually like the 10days call have delta 35 would consider 35 itm and not correlate with the 30days despite having two position together
 
Forget about the greeks, you are just adding unnecessary noise. It's all about market sentiment towards a stock.

    1. Which stock?
    2. Which options are you trading, expiry, strike?




:)
 
trilogic said:
Possible to clarify why its just an "estimate"

I think I am sure I know why:)
More...

Delta understates probability by the conditional probability of exercise. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong. I've been goaded out of my depth.

I think your lost in the sauce, man. That's why OTM-options trying to kill this mental masturbation.

Anyway, delta is additive. Don't insert correlation in this. What you are thinking of is vega between options. There is a square root of time adjustment for (correlating) aggregating the vega risk. Heck, add them anyway. just be aware the other expiry IV can go a different way.
 
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You can back out the risk-neutral probability density from BSM. It is scaled by vol*sqrt(t), which addresses your duration issue.

RND = exp(-r*t)*Nd(d2) / (k*vol*sqrt(t))
 
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