Who is trading after Fibonacci ? Only small retailers I guess, maybe some bank traders, but not far enough to move the market(s). So I assume a 'system' around Fibo cannot be really effective, achieving high sharpes. Anyone proof me wrong here ?
Fibs don't work
- Thread starter SunTrader
- Start date
Hi Andy,
I have studied thousands of hours looking and analysing charts like many on this forum, i trade Fibs using retracement levels and pattern recognition on a very short time frame.
I do not wish to prove you wrong, as you obviously have your own edge/ strategy by which you trade.
But Fib levels are just levels to me, which i have over time built a strategy and an edge .
The levels i use give me a pre-defined entry, exit, and a hard stop.
Sun Trader has his strategy using different levels and time frames than me,and it works for him.
There are many many ways to trade Fibs levels. Its building a strategy around them.
If you watch the charts long enough you can see the candles being painted.
I have studied thousands of hours looking and analysing charts like many on this forum, i trade Fibs using retracement levels and pattern recognition on a very short time frame.
I do not wish to prove you wrong, as you obviously have your own edge/ strategy by which you trade.
But Fib levels are just levels to me, which i have over time built a strategy and an edge .
The levels i use give me a pre-defined entry, exit, and a hard stop.
Sun Trader has his strategy using different levels and time frames than me,and it works for him.
There are many many ways to trade Fibs levels. Its building a strategy around them.
If you watch the charts long enough you can see the candles being painted.
...and what is your average Reward-to-Risk-Ratio and your average winning rate ? Do you trade FX majors or anything else with Fibs ?
See my post #160. It was a real time analysis in another thread that proved to be a profitable trade with the entry made because of continued rejection of the 61.8IF fibs work, then perhaps someone who uses them can post a real trade using them.
Otherwise, this is just a bunch of hindsight BS.
...just hindsight or ? If you do market replay and go forward what is your average RRR and win rate then ?
Unsure what my RRR has to do with the conversation as with no proof we can all write what we wish.
I have in the past traded xauusd but now i predominantly trade eurusd and US500
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...and how profitable is it for you to ask it in different shape ? What is your profit factor ? Your monthly RRR, if you do not care for RRR on individual trades ? Because if Fibonacci has a real edge than the numbers trading it should be looking very good. Otherwise it is more random and can be avoided because there is not much edge if any.
Confluence and context. I don't think it qualifies as a Fibonacci number if you want to be strict, but the 50 % retracement level is undeniably an important one. Especially if it lines up with some other level.
Sometimes it's overshoot by a bit, so I imagine that might be close to the 61.8 % retracement level by Fibonacci.
Sometimes it's overshoot by a bit, so I imagine that might be close to the 61.8 % retracement level by Fibonacci.