Fibs don't work

[SunTrader]

it’s funny that ....

you haven't a clue what every bank or asset manager does yet you pretend you do.

 

[longandshort]

you haven't a clue what every bank or asset manager does yet you pretend you do.

Lol I’m not here to play a semantics game. Sell side is comp’ed for liquidity provisioning while buy side is for taking risk. Neither of those two approaches utilizes fibs.

are there random $5m shops who call themselves a hedge fund and use technicals? Probably. But trading in the real world (qib’s with $100mm+ in size) is so far beyond what you think it is lol. Serious traders are studying python and/or econometrics and you’re telling people about this gibberish lol.

imagine telling your friends kid (who wants to be a trader) to study “technicals” and fibs retracements instead of economics / finance / comp sci.

 

[speedo]

If you want to be among the 10%, don't expect the other 90% to understand.

 

[themickey]

If you want to be among the 10%, don't expect the other 90% to understand.

Well I trade/invest for a living and feel 100% sure, that if I were to introduce fibs anywhere in my decision making, I would rapidly go broke.

 

[speedo]

Well I trade/invest for a living and feel 100% sure, that if I were to introduce fibs anywhere in my decision making, I would rapidly go broke.

Then I suggest not doing it Mickey. Who wants to be broke

 

[speedo]

There is more than one way to trade...who knew

 

[themickey]

There is more than one way to trade...who knew

There is, and it pays to use the most efficient methods for bang for bucks.
I've learnt one thing from pain, it pays to be very very careful when selecting what to trade, as losses come easy.

 

[ph1l]

Multiple 61.8% hits are what as known as price vibrating to a certain frequency believe it or not.

As for after-the fact gotta sleep sometimes, not to mention the high and low have to be in place before fib grid can be drawn.

I calculated prices waves using the method in this post for 27 ETFs (SPY QQQ IWM XLF XLE XLI DIA XLV XLK XLU XLY XLP XLB MDY SPYG SPYV SPTM SLYV TLT EFA EEM MDY EWW EWM EWG EWS GLD) on 18-22 years of daily prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Then I plotted the ratio of the price swing of a wave and its predecessor as a histogram (ratio is X axis, number of occurrences out of 14118 ratios is Y axis).

The ratio values are cutoff at 4.0 to make the graph more readable.

The highest histogram bar is for .60432506088781 <= ratio < 0.61089381088781 which is close to the Fibonacci ratio 0.618. So, I conclude there is more merit to the idea of Fibonacci ratios predicting turning points than I first thought.

 

[easymon1]

I calculated prices waves using the method in this post for 27 ETFs (SPY QQQ IWM XLF XLE XLI DIA XLV XLK XLU XLY XLP XLB MDY SPYG SPYV SPTM SLYV TLT EFA EEM MDY EWW EWM EWG EWS GLD) on 18-22 years of daily prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Then I plotted the ratio of the price swing of a wave and its predecessor as a histogram (ratio is X axis, number of occurrences out of 14118 ratios is Y axis).
View attachment 285029
The ratio values are cutoff at 4.0 to make the graph more readable.

The highest histogram bar is for .60432506088781 <= ratio < 0.61089381088781 which is close to the Fibonacci ratio 0.618. So, I conclude there is more merit to the idea of Fibonacci ratios predicting turning points than I first thought.

You're a bad dude. Would it be possible to disregard datapoints above 1 and post that chart with higher resolution between 0 and 1, maybe in increments of 1?

 

[David's faith]

I calculated prices waves using the method in this post for 27 ETFs (SPY QQQ IWM XLF XLE XLI DIA XLV XLK XLU XLY XLP XLB MDY SPYG SPYV SPTM SLYV TLT EFA EEM MDY EWW EWM EWG EWS GLD) on 18-22 years of daily prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Then I plotted the ratio of the price swing of a wave and its predecessor as a histogram (ratio is X axis, number of occurrences out of 14118 ratios is Y axis).
View attachment 285029
The ratio values are cutoff at 4.0 to make the graph more readable.

The highest histogram bar is for .60432506088781 <= ratio < 0.61089381088781 which is close to the Fibonacci ratio 0.618. So, I conclude there is more merit to the idea of Fibonacci ratios predicting turning points than I first thought.

With that and my knowledge (lets call my experience knowledge for once, okay I can predict, that if we go lower, 3620 will be a temp. low for a few days. Mark my words. If it works i just found some alpha.