Fibs don't work

I've posted this many times before and I'm sure will do it many more times:-

Sept 3rd, 1929 (date sound familiar, year anyway?)

Time, price, momentum and pattern. So-called self-fulfilling prophecy even though Elliott and common knowledge of Fibs hadn't happen yet. How's that?

! Dow29 EW.png
 
SunTrader said:
I've posted this many times before and I'm sure will do it many more times:-

Sept 3rd, 1929 (date sound familiar, year anyway?)

Time, price, momentum and pattern. So-called self-fulfilling prophecy even though Elliott and common knowledge of Fibs hadn't happen yet. How's that?

View attachment 304828
More...
So what are you saying? That Fibs were working even before someone discovered them? I could not understand all the numbers on your chart?
 
ph1l said:
No, I don't believe everything I read. But I didn't read that article until today:p.

So I looked for pages about testing something Fibonacci-related for trading and found a few.
https://tradingrush.net/i-tested-fi...-find-the-truth-about-fibonacci-retracements/
https://www.quantifiedstrategies.co...acci_trading_strategy_backtest_-_does_it_work
https://youtu.be/il5I3lm-MV8
The results didn't seem too promising.

But these people are all trying to sell something, so they might be withholding some relevant information. So I also found some test results here and here (second link is a correction of an error here) from someone I'm 100%† sure isn't selling anything.

However, I'm not yet completely convinced there isn't some significance to Fibonacci constructs related to trading.

† Actually, 99.999% sure rounded up.;)
More...
Fair enough but anything can be found to confirm one's belief by searching. You know that.

Here is an ES example earlier today hitting 50% level,. Yeah, yeah some say it's not a fib ratio. Whatever. But notice the green anchor lines, not as typical drawn from highest high and lowest low. Testing would label that a loser. But the way I was taught is to ignore the outlying candle wicks and use close of the bar. Don't care about all those losing traders caught when a bar reversing significantly before it closes. Hit level, reversed and closed near top of the bar. Then took out that high on the next 5 min bar.
! ES Fibs.png
 
Illini Trader said:
Awww Mick --- You are the perfect set up guy. I took your chart and extended it and low and behold in mid February it hit the 61.8% retracement and it stopped the downtrend cold. Now what was it that I said. When a retracement approaches the 61.8% retracement you want to be careful. Now what are the odds that I could take your chart and find a perfect example of the exact fib that I posted about.

View attachment 304827
More...
damm.jpg
 
SunTrader said:
Fair enough but anything can be found to confirm one's belief by searching. You know that.

Here is an ES example earlier today hitting 50% level,. Yeah, yeah some say it's not a fib ratio. Whatever. But notice the green anchor lines, not as typical drawn from highest high and lowest low. Testing would label that a loser. But the way I was taught is to ignore the outlying candle wicks and use close of the bar. Don't care about all those losing traders caught when a bar reversing significantly before it closes. Hit level, reversed and closed near top of the bar. Then took out that high on the next 5 min bar.
View attachment 304829
More...
Fibs is like religion, you have beliefs that your god will save you or make you money, but it hasn't happened yet but it will in the future.
The future only arrives after you are dead or account blown up.

Always the same song, "woulda shoulda coulda".
 
Last edited:
Illini Trader said:
So what are you saying? That Fibs were working even before someone discovered them? I could not understand all the numbers on your chart?
More...
I thought it would be obvious that yes they worked then. They work now.

Some are Fib Price Projections (APP and Ex Ret) and Fib Time Projections (TCR and ATP) - the ratios used are right on them, projecting prior swing lows and highs to crash high.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top