Fibonacci Retracements

[Sarasota]

Originally posted by daniel_m


what rubbish...there are SO MANY places where it most certainly IS NOT it's not funny... i could think a million examples...

I'm curious, are the markets some of these places?????????

 

[stevet]

yep - i'd sure like to hear his answer to that one?

 

[Rigel]

Do anyones Fib numbers tell them anything about what the NASDAQ is likely to do tommorrow and Friday? I've got my own opinion based on some other things and am wondering if yours agree with mine. Don't know if this fits your time frame though, or if the question is reasonable. Don't know anything about Fib trading.

 

[stevet]

fibs can absolutly be used to forecast levels ahead of time in hours and days, not direction, but levels,

and also short term direction in mins and hours

 

[SProbability]

R U suggesting you can forecast short term direction with Fib, but not (longer term) direction?

How? Why? What's the difference?

 

[stevet]

short term direction - yes

when u get into hours which i would call long term, you can forecast levels, and also forecast direction, but you may change your forecast of direction at any time, which would mean a reversal of position

 

[Rigel]

So the next two days would be long term (hours)I guess and it would be possible to forecast direction. RSI suggests that the direction for the NASDAQ will be up. Wouldn't trade on just this of course. Wonder what the Fib analysis suggests for the next two days.

 

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by stevet
short term direction - yes

when u get into hours which i would call long term, you can forecast levels, and also forecast direction, but you may change your forecast of direction at any time, which would mean a reversal of position

but you may change your forecast of direction at any time



I am not trying to shoot fib down as a trading tool, i just don't understand the source of its perceived usefulness.

I agree that fib ratios are common in nature and common in mathematics. But if they are indeed 'everywhere' that may be a part of the problem. What good is a word that contains the meaning of all other words in the dictionary? It becomes so generalized that there is no useful situation specific application.

Offhand statements like the one above show why i scratch my head.

Where is the benefit in saying 'fib will work here unless it doesn't'? Doesn't a discretionary trader watching things like news, volume and price action to determine a turn do the same thing except with fewer illusions of infallibility?

Where is the value add? If it works half the time and fails half the time, what's the difference between fib analysis and coin flip analysis?

p.s. i guess what i'm saying is, why use a complicated and esoteric tool when simpler ones work just as well.

 

[stevet]

well, if u spend a bit if time trying to understand the use of fibs - u will find it is as simple as it gets - even simpler than an sma

and the most complex or easiest tool that u use for gauging the market does not act as a crystal ball - but when u learn their meaning and effect - it is your skill that helps them to help you enter good positions, exist a losing one , and get the most out of the ones that really transpire to be good

 

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by stevet

and the most complex or easiest tool that u use for gauging the market does not act as a crystal ball - but when u learn their meaning and effect - it is your skill that helps them to help you enter good positions, exist a losing one , and get the most out of the ones that really transpire to be good

i can see where you're coming from.

i suppose i just view my toolbox as sufficiently full.

why switch to makita if you are happy w/ craftsman etc.