Fibonacci - How does it work - Does it really work?

murray t turtle · Jun 16, 2006

Quote from Li Ka Shing:

I find that Moving Averages set in Fib numbers are useful.

55, 89, and so on.

Here is an example, the recent SPX daily chart, set with SMAs in Fib numbers.

================

Good points LK Shing especially the #55;
50 dma is helpful also, of which 5 is a fibo number

Funny post by another trader earlier ,
the way some carry them out to 3 decimals
[especially since many quotes are only carried out 2 decimals also]

And back to the future, but not a prediction, but on a 5 day 60 minute ES SEPT contract 1255 is a key level like 1313 AREA was, in the past.

dandxg · Jun 16, 2006

Does anyone use fibonacci ext levels for targeting? I was watching the recorded demo of Top Gun Software and they looked useful. Of course I know a vendor is always going to present their best which makes sense. Just curious.

4re · Jun 16, 2006

Quote from dandxg:

Does anyone use fibonacci ext levels for targeting? I was watching the recorded demo of Top Gun Software and they looked useful. Of course I know a vendor is always going to present their best which makes sense. Just curious.

I do on occasion look at fib retracements just to see why price might have bounced at a certain level but I don't trade off of them. A lot of people do use them about like the way some people use pivot points.

They do have their uses in trading though.

4re

lundy · Jun 17, 2006

Quote from dandxg:

Does anyone use fibonacci ext levels for targeting? I was watching the recorded demo of Top Gun Software and they looked useful. Of course I know a vendor is always going to present their best which makes sense. Just curious.

I do this.

Buy1Sell2 · Jun 17, 2006

Quote from TSOKAKIS:

The problem is that Fibonacci levels form a multi-level system.
It is the main reason of the trap.
If you expect a reaction at 0.382 of the last High and it does not come, then you expect the 0.500 and then the 0.618.
There is no fundamental [or statistical] reason to prefer 0.382 or the other levels.
So, one may loose money, it is easy.
On the other side, you will often read comments such as "the Gold futures reacted exactly at the 0.618 level, wow, amazing etc"

Very Very good post. Fib is extremely subjective.

kiwi_trader · Jun 17, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Very Very good post. Fib is extremely subjective.

They can be subjective or not - its up to the potential trader. If u find that a particular fib (or fib confluence) seems to work on something you trade then you just need to add targets (or exit rules) and stops to generate an objective trading strategy and then test it. If you test it properly then it ceases to be subjective.

nononsense · Jun 17, 2006

Did anybody ever run an experiment of randomizing "fib" numbers? I mean by keeping these randomized levels in sequence.

Comparing backtesting of such randomized sets against the genuine "fibs" should show a clear superiority of the latter against the randomized test sets.

Of course, you need to have a decent backtesting setup in place.

4re · Jun 17, 2006

If you will learn to trade using the charts to determine support and resistance you won't need Fibs or pivot points. These two things are smaller parts of and help to create these those little clusters of support and resistance you can see. Just worry about the actual S/R and you don't have to spend all your time trying to figure out what caused them.

If you are really interested in fibs or pivots I will say that yes they will work. so will Mac D, RSI, CCI and a lot of other things. The important thing is to learn one or two techniques and master them. Then forget everything else and trade what you know until it stops working. Then and only then try something new. Everybody keeps trying things for a couple of weeks and then switching because maybe they had a bad day or week. That is not a reason to abandon your method.

Take Care,
4re

Agyar · Jun 17, 2006

I purposely make any number I use in my charts a non-fibonacci number, just on principle.

I think it is a bunch of hooey personally, but I know there are people that are successful with it so maybe it is just a bunch of hooey to me.

I'm actually pretty much indicator free right now in my trading. The only number I have as a parameter for anything in a chart is my volume bars, which have 343 contracts per bar. 343 is not a fib number, but is some crazy chinese number of some kind.Started looking at those based on reading some ProfLogic stuff, and have become accustomed to how they move. I think if you stare at your particular configuration of charts long enough, it is bound to start making sense no matter what parameters you use for things.

cashmoney69 · May 2, 2008