You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Fertilizer stocks out of favor
- Thread starter NoDoji
- Start date
the long commodities short financials trade started unwinding two weeks ago. if you trade to put the trade back on in the last two weeks your getting run over
even though a lot of these fertilizers absolutely crushed earnings numbers (mos by almost 4x), they are still selling for 8x their book value. ags still wayyy overpriced.
right now, mos is testing 200 day MA.. should be interesting to see where we go from here. rally up or further downward pull...
right now, mos is testing 200 day MA.. should be interesting to see where we go from here. rally up or further downward pull...
Agree. By the way MON already lost its 200ma support.
Smells fishy too, as on their way down, analysts desperately upgraded these fertilizer stocks.
My friend told me about analysts making similar call about QCOM (correct??) going to 700 or something back in 2000.
Smells fishy too, as on their way down, analysts desperately upgraded these fertilizer stocks.
My friend told me about analysts making similar call about QCOM (correct??) going to 700 or something back in 2000.
Quote from JOEY O:
even though a lot of these fertilizers absolutely crushed earnings numbers (mos by almost 4x), they are still selling for 8x their book value. ags still wayyy overpriced.
right now, mos is testing 200 day MA.. should be interesting to see where we go from here. rally up or further downward pull...
Quote from luckylee:
Agree. By the way MON already lost its 200ma support.
Smells fishy too, as on their way down, analysts desperately upgraded these fertilizer stocks.
My friend told me about analysts making similar call about QCOM (correct??) going to 700 or something back in 2000.
no, target was 900 or 1000...
anyway look at oil service stocks like hero,xom ...sector rotation in a bear market is brutal...ags are next...short oil,ag rallies.
I had to repost this, its just too funny, POT was 225+ at the time I wrote what I wrote and today its under $100, I have no clue???? Amateur????
HAHAHA....
Dont know why you thought these stocks were NOT going to plummet. TOO FUNNY.
Landis82 "you have no clue"
Makloda "The mindset of a true amateur."
Landis82
Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 3645
07-25-08 11:55 AM
Quote from S2007S:
Those stocks are all in bubble land, I said this when POT was at 230+ and will say it again, all these stocks are in bubble land along with commodities. You cannot have commodities rising in a slowing economy. Not only is the US in a recession, but the rest of the world is seeing a slowdown as well. Stay away from these stocks, they may bounce higher in the short term but I see no reason to own these while the economy goes deeper into a recession.
Once again you show everyone here on ET that you have no idea what you are doing . . . made even more ironic by the fact that you are arguing with a guy that actually TRADES for a living!
First off, these stocks have been in 3 year uptrends, that should tell you something. The fundamentals are there. This group's performance isn't just some "day-trading" orgy.
Secondly, the farming community is always seeking to increase yield and many of the new fertilizers are helping them do just that.
Your view on what you think is happening around the globe with the economy is a joke.
Ever notice what is going on in Brazil lately?
Hint: There is a major macro shift going on in that country with commercial farming. They are the #1 exporter of soybeans in the world!
You have no clue.
Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain
makloda
Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 4599
07-25-08 02:12 PM
Quote from S2007S:
You have that right, I dont trade those bubble stocks like you do, they are in a bubble and will come down just like all stocks in bubble land do.......
Anything that goes up to a price that is beyond what you personally can rationalize is a bubble? You can only buy things that are down, can you?
The mindset of a true amateur.
Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain:
HAHAHA....
Dont know why you thought these stocks were NOT going to plummet. TOO FUNNY.
Landis82 "you have no clue"
Makloda "The mindset of a true amateur."
Landis82
Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 3645
07-25-08 11:55 AM
Quote from S2007S:
Those stocks are all in bubble land, I said this when POT was at 230+ and will say it again, all these stocks are in bubble land along with commodities. You cannot have commodities rising in a slowing economy. Not only is the US in a recession, but the rest of the world is seeing a slowdown as well. Stay away from these stocks, they may bounce higher in the short term but I see no reason to own these while the economy goes deeper into a recession.
Once again you show everyone here on ET that you have no idea what you are doing . . . made even more ironic by the fact that you are arguing with a guy that actually TRADES for a living!
First off, these stocks have been in 3 year uptrends, that should tell you something. The fundamentals are there. This group's performance isn't just some "day-trading" orgy.
Secondly, the farming community is always seeking to increase yield and many of the new fertilizers are helping them do just that.
Your view on what you think is happening around the globe with the economy is a joke.
Ever notice what is going on in Brazil lately?
Hint: There is a major macro shift going on in that country with commercial farming. They are the #1 exporter of soybeans in the world!
You have no clue.
Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain
makloda
Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 4599
07-25-08 02:12 PM
Quote from S2007S:
You have that right, I dont trade those bubble stocks like you do, they are in a bubble and will come down just like all stocks in bubble land do.......
Anything that goes up to a price that is beyond what you personally can rationalize is a bubble? You can only buy things that are down, can you?
The mindset of a true amateur.
Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain:
this sucks. Everything getting clobered. Coal, oil, potash, steel, iron,
There is a very simple philsophy that we all should follow, but in reality, we dont really follow. I've been guilty of not following this simple philsophy myself and been burned. That philosophy is the following:
1. Price that is uptrending tends to keep trending up until it doesnt.
2. Price that is downtrending tends to keep trending down until it doesnt.
In this case, these stocks were in an uptrend (#1) and then it was clear that they were not in an uptrend (#2).
These have come down a ways, but they may still go much lower to shocking lows just like tech stocks of yesteryear. Actually, these stocks are worse then some of the tech stocks of yesteryear.
1. Price that is uptrending tends to keep trending up until it doesnt.
2. Price that is downtrending tends to keep trending down until it doesnt.
In this case, these stocks were in an uptrend (#1) and then it was clear that they were not in an uptrend (#2).
These have come down a ways, but they may still go much lower to shocking lows just like tech stocks of yesteryear. Actually, these stocks are worse then some of the tech stocks of yesteryear.
I've been noticing ag chemical stocks dropping in unison as well. Flipping back through my diary as far as September 8, I see that chems as a sector were down 1.20%, even though the Dow was up 289. Looking at Spetember 18, the Dow was up 410, but chems were the 2nd worst performing sector, only up 1.78%, (that was a big financial stock rally day, banks up 12.48%, real estate up 11.01%, insurance up 9.28%). Chems led the way down on Sep 23, led the way down on Sep 25, and Sep 26.