Ferrera 2012 Forecast

From 2008:

So, here we would expect stock prices
to be generally lower going into 2009.

My cycle work or DTFBarometer
shows a confirming low in 2009 coinciding with Benner’s
sequence.


Overall 2008 should be a down year for the stock market. The
dominant cycles (36-yr, 10-yr, 41-month & 24-months) are all in downward
phases of their movements, which should cause all declines to be much
sharper due to the combined weight or influence of these cycles.


We have already declined 19% from the highs of October 2007 and the original cyclic
model indicates that the end of the year should be around 1250 to 1240 price
levels on the S&P500. Mass Pressure indicates a similar bearish outlook but
only ending down only 2% or so. Both Spectral Analysis and my original
cycle work presented in Wheels Within Wheels forecast a similar downward
trend or market curve.


The economy is due to reach its lowest point in the 18.6-yr
cycle around December 2008. From here it is anticipated to begin improving
back to normal conditions into July 2013
 
From 2010:


The basic forecast for the stock market in 2010 is lackluster at best. The
market may finish the year in positive territory, but currently would be more
inclined to forecast a flat to negative market.


The chart on the following page is very
similar to the 100-year pattern shown (1909-1910) on the prior page and is
also indicating a steadily declining market from Fall 2009 (Sept-Nov) into
the season of Fall 2010 (Sept-Nov). Thus far, all indications are basically
saying that the market is cyclically weak and both cycles and periodicity
patterns indicate that the best buying opportunity for 2010 does not occur
until very late in the season, most likely not until October or November.


The above cycles and composite wave are also indicating the likelihood of a
“Double Dip” recession going into the year 2012


This model is calling for lower lows and lower highs for nearly the entire
year, which again supports the “lackluster” theme discussed in the beginning
of this report. According to this model, the year finishes strong with a
powerful December rally that lasts into February 2011


No. 10 is a bear year. A rally often runs until March and April; then a
severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins
and another rally starts. See 1910, 1920, 1930. Note how well this is
matching our current forecast! We are anticipating declines from Oct/Nov
2009 into Jan/Feb 2010, followed by a short rally into March and steady
declines into at September/October 2010


Due to the
current phasing of the 24-month and 41-month cycles, the exit point or
holding period is to liquidate holdings in June 2011 anticipating a decline
into October 2012.
 
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