Feedback appreciated. My Journal Begins...

[jsmacksem]

PS-- but don't listen to me. Look at PROVEN successful traders-- not just claims and good writers. Your last question is an example of you starting to see the truth--- you will understand what I am saying after more hands on experience. good luck!!

Who are these PROVEN successful traders? Is BigHog or StealthTrader a proven successful trader? They say they trade every day, day in and day out. They say that they plan their trade, and trade their plan.

Everything you are telling me seems so contradictory. I've seen newbies, aged, young, and old traders say you need to develop a simple profitable plan or system. Nothing extra ordinary. Just KISS. I don't want BIG RISK. I'd like manage my money well by risking 1-2% of my capital on each trade. If risking 1-2% on each trade can make me 3-6% on each trade, why not? Especially if a written and tested plan does this 6 out of 10 trades?

S/R has been around before there were people trading from their homes. If S/R are always around, can't a plan be based around S/R?

P.S. Me not listening to you.

 

[marketsurfer]

Who are these PROVEN successful traders? Is BigHog or StealthTrader a proven successful trader? They say they trade every day, day in and day out. They say that they plan their trade, and trade their plan.

Everything you are telling me seems so contradictory. I've seen newbies, aged, young, and old traders say you need to develop a simple profitable plan or system. Nothing extra ordinary. Just KISS. I don't want BIG RISK. I'd like manage my money well by risking 1-2% of my capital on each trade. If risking 1-2% on each trade can make me 3-6% on each trade, why not? Especially if a written and tested plan does this 6 out of 10 trades?

S/R has been around before there were people trading from their homes. If S/R are always around, can't a plan be based around S/R?

P.S. Me not listening to you.

It's cool, I really don't care if you listen to me or not. I can only try to direct you in the right direction.

I'll leave your journal now also, but to answer your question-- read books by hedge fund managers and others who are well known to be successful--- If you don't understand this and prefer to follow dream sellers etc-- that's up to you.
Peace and best wishes!!! surf

 

[jsmacksem]

It's cool, I really don't care if you listen to me or not. I can only try to direct you in the right direction.

I'll leave your journal now also, but to answer your question-- read books by hedge fund managers and others who are well known to be successful--- If you don't understand this and prefer to follow dream sellers etc-- that's up to you.
Peace and best wishes!!! surf

I tried putting the smiley face. Didn't mean to disrespect. I read an amazing highly technical book from hedge fund manager. Andrew Clenow I think.

I'm reading al brooks bar by bar. But I learn most with screen time. Learned more with screen then al brooks taught. He's got great stuff. His charts are tiny.

Andrew Clenow has very strict rules and plans for his clients capital. Plan you work right?

And whose this dream seller I keep listening to who I haven't met yet?

 

[jsmacksem]

I also read stock operator with Livermore. Guy knew what he was doing. I notice he made a few written rules of his own though.

Also, didn't he kill himself after a BIG RISK BIG REWARD that wiped him out?

Try BIG RISK=done/dead.

CALCULATED RISK=I can trade again tomorrow.

Maybe when I get some charts up next week you can have a look. Til then enjoy your Sunday!

 

[jsmacksem]

This morning was tough. Took a lot of patience waiting for that signal. I felt like I had a good grasp on the signal too. I'm still forward testing a simple method to see what kind of probability to expect.

It's one trade. Based off the anchor we had a nice up channel, and price was about 60% of the way to the top when I decided to enter this long. On the 1000 share bar, that swing low made around 11:18 was my stop, but a few ticks below it. It looked as if R had become S. It all looked like a retrace from the uptrend, and I saw no reason price couldn't possibly reach a high of the 4020's somewhere.

I'm proud of the patience at least.

Be back at 2 - 230 for a little more.

So far down $70. Risked more than usual on this trade too. Still within my risk parameters though.

 

[jsmacksem]

Morning August 29,2014.
7 Trades.


Today I traded with a focus on supply and demand. During the trading I was constantly talking to myself like a schizophrenic about supply and demand.

I also decided to analyze some key points of S/R from overnight/yesterday. I'm not able to trade everyday with work, but I do watch the charts often at my workplace.

My plan has involved 1000 bar charts. I traded the 1 minute today and loved it. The retraces were there, and more importantly I could see how price was continuous. I've been needing to analyze my current method, and am now in process of making another. Today was great following the new method, but definite testing and tweaking are in the near future.

The supply and demand lines really are there. Learning to react instead of calling tops and bottoms, and hopping on the next pullback seems VERY detrimental to success in day trading.

Trade 1: Error. Did not sell on a pullback. I believe the emotion causing me error is "missing the big moves". I need to learn the big moves make some pullbacks to enter on. Supply was in overnight, and into the open. Didn't see demand yet, but was paying attention to 4070 for possible support. Took that easy.

Trade 2: Obvious revenge trade. Did not take the time to reassess supply and demand. Supply was definitely still in.

Trade 3: Great trade. Reanalyzed. Supply in and sold on a break of micro TL. Stop fit risk parameters of less than 1.5%.

Trade 4: Easy shakeout I guess. Assumed continuation of supply and that this was a retrace. If anything I could have waited for a close of the bar and had more confirmation that way.

Trade 5: Traded chop. Should have waited. Small loss. Cut it short.

Trade 6: Only wish I held it longer!

Trade 7: Only wish I held it longer! Had to go to work. AHHH. Should have let it run with my stop in place. Great move.

Ended in the green for once. $10 dollars that is. LOL.

Really enjoyed learning during today's session. Cannot wait for Tuesday! Have a good labor day. I'll be studying some charts.

 

[jsmacksem]

Dear Journal,

Where do I start?...

I have realized that I have been SIM trading, without a plan. Upon further research, I discovered that my "plan" doesn't have to be completely mechanical... "Wait for 2 HH's and 2 HL's then go long". NO!

I want to learn Price Action. Many traders believe in simplicity. So do I.

Instead of waking up every morning and SIM trading, taking 3 losses, taking 4 winners, then another loss etc...without ANY proof that my method of trading actually works, I went back to the drawing board and have been studying supply and demand. I have been looking at how price behaves.

I've been asking myself very good questions--as mentioned by DBpheonix somewhere---"what do you want and what are you going to do about it?" Also, during price action analysis, I often ask "what are the fearful people doing here?"

These questions have led me into a period of back-testing my discretionary methods. I'm quite surprised at the results thus far. IT IS HOWEVER TIME CONSUMING! Especially if one wants to learn the behavior of Supply and Demand, and more importantly the traders behind supply and demand. I'm constantly talking to myself out loud and my entire family thinks I'm done.

But I'm getting it. I'm also learning great things about supply and demand. I've also been able to spot a range and CHOP very early so as to avoid it. It also says something especially after a large supply or demand move. Price is now in equilibrium. Whatever the sellers supply, the buyers agree to buy and vice versa. It's actually a great area and one to be expected. One can learn there I think about these simple forces.

It's relaxing too to know that the demand is what is supplied. However, this creates a great opportunity to reassess and be ready. Not for the breakout, reversal, retracement...but to understand how supply and demand behave. Is there more buying or selling pressure? Is this B/O a fake? How I can I be sure? What are the fearful people doing who just went long? Short? What am I going to do about it?

So Mr. Journal, to end this post, I've only tested 40 trades so far. Half are from July of this year, and Half are from 2012 in September. I'm trying to choose different times/trends/ranges, to learn new times. I have sworn not to cheat on the charts. I'm only cheating myself anyway, unless you feel cheated and for that I'm sorry. I replay each day one bar at a time. I do not move forward, I train to simulate the real thing. In fact if I accidentally see that day, I skip it. It's tough. Sometimes after a bar, I sit there for 20 minutes talking to myself.

"What do I want?" I want to understand supply and demand. I want to make money following supply and demand.

"How am I going to get it?" By studying. By articulating the fearful actions of my enemy traders. There fears are similar to mine, so many I can play off that. Or, possibly, just maybe, I don't have to be afraid, and price action can be my friend?

I've ended this post 4 times already. The results of these back-tests are alright. I"ll keep you posted.

Profit/Loss -> $870
Win Rate -> 48.9%
P/L ration -> 2.32:1
Avg Win -> $107.33
Avg Loss -> $46.25

While back-testing, I'm also able to learn more about what rules I want to use. I admit Mr. Journal, I do not yet have a written plan. I did. Then I trashed it. Because I didn't understand anything about price action.

I'm learning. Almost a 50% win rate. I would prefer a higher P/L ratio. My fear could be cutting winners short. I'm learning more about that.

I hope that by testing, I can be confident in my decisions, and put the plan on paper. This plan will be discretionary, and it will probably simply be a play by play of a day's price action(ie. Line broke, what do you do now, it retraced 50% what do you want now etc...). What do we here? Why? What are the fearful doing? What do I want here? How am I going to get it now?

Read this quote earlier...have no idea who from...A plan is..."not a set of mechanical rules, but a guideline to apply one's understanding of the market to actual trading."

Ok Journal, that was a lot.

My journey is to 1) back-test many more trades so I have an idea of the profitability this approach can generate. 2) Forward test these trades in SIM for a couple weeks(months, please not years), maintaining profitability. and 3) Going live confident in my system and written plan. WOOPS! There is a step 1.5). Write down the damn plan. After back-testing has proved it's profitability.

If only you could talk, I'd want to know how many trades to analyze before I can "count" on my system? Yes systems fail. They succeed. But I'm pretty sure Supply and Demand have been and always will be forever. Right?

Thanks Journal,
Jdawg

P.S. I'll be watching, possibly trading, NQ tomorrow morning. I have a lot of back testing to do, but maybe I can forward test at the same time. Shit! That means another document to set up in excel...

 

[jsmacksem]

Incidentally, I won't be posting here further. I don't want to run your journal off the rails.

FYI. I'm learning a lot from your teachings on other threads. It's amazing stuff. Plan is being worked out...back testing in progress, and with some good results. Even after the first 10 trades lost. Minimally of coarse. I also located a PDF you offered for making a plan. It's very well written and detailed.

 

[jsmacksem]

Dear Mr. Journal, Or Mrs. You guys married?

Trade #1 --> Premarket Supply was in. Prices were lower and the opening move of supply came with quite some volume and aggression. Decided to wait for RET instead of momentum chasing. Good enter, but looks like price needed more time before I sold. Sell at 0935 EST for 101.5. Cover at 103.5. 2 PT loss.

Trade #2. --> I reassessed. Supply was still in. Demand for contracts at these prices was not high enough to put more pressure on the supply and drive price. My assessment was still good so looked for another RET to short. Happened at 4096. After a huge rejection by supply. I learned a lot in this trade. Price came close to that entry at 949 EST. I began asking myself good questions. What would the fearful do here? They would cover. I decided to see if Supply was indeed in control by waiting to see if that line broke. It did not. I'm happy I waited, though it took a lot of discipline and self talk to stay there. Covered at 957 EST, at 4091.25.

I could have waited for a supply line break. However, the 60 min has a great and strong trendline and price met it where I exited, approximately. I decided to take profits, and see how price would now behave meeting a crucial point of past demand. Would it stay in? Fail? What are the fearful doing? What are the hopeful doing? Price said cover, I covered at that trend line.

Trade #3--> This was a mistake on my behalf. I could have been proud of my prior move and wanted another one. Price didn't confirm anything other than a 50% retrace of prior down swing. It didn't test Supply line . Also at this time, 1000 Am EST, price is making lower highs. Especially after large influx of supply, I should have understood that price might now try to reach a balance for little while. Minus the down swing at 1021 am, which offered no opportunity for a RET, price is in a range. I just saw it's making moves. Demand seems to in. People like what they are seeing, they buying at these prices and sellers are no longer offering to sell at these low prices.

Trade #4 --> I'll have to study this more in depth in the future. I'm not sure this was an error yet. If there is an error, its that my plan doesn't address this price situation yet. After a sideways break of the supply line, price moved higher. It hit a 50% ret of the entire mornings down move. Will it retrace back down? Will it break 50% and demand is in?

I'm learning more, that price needs to answer that for me. So the error on trade 4, I should not have tried to buy anything until price clearly BROKE that 50% mark. Then I would have looked for a RET.

Attached is the chart. 4 trades. 3 Losers. 1 Winner. That one winner still left me $20 in the green today.

 

[jsmacksem]

Sorry for my absence. Very much overwhelmed with work, and struggled to find time to trade. However, I've decided that instead of being down about not being able to trade, I'm going to post my journal anyways. I'm going to do a prep journal in the mornings, and a "replay" or results journal in the evenings even If I can't trade that day.

This way I think I'll stay in tune with the market, not to mention I will learn much faster reviewing these trades every day.

Writing and developing a plan is tough work. There are so many questions to ask one's self that I'm continually adding and taking away, and testing it. A daily contribution to this journal will help my plan/system/method whatever, grow and become robust.

So today's prep. 10/1/2014

In the daily we have what appears to be a hinge. After hitting 4118 apprx on 9/25, it seems traders haven't been able to find trades above that. Then we have the channel break a few days after that followed by the hinge.

Are traders looking for value elsewhere? Time will tell. Maybe the hinge will pop today and revert back up to mean of previous range starting around 9/5.

Overnight price was rejected a couple of times around 29 with mostly a range between 46 and 34. Premarket around 8 830 price tried to get well under 29 again and failed. Could there be demand at this price?

At 930, I'm going to see how or if price behaves around the 24-29 areas. This is the mean of a channel started a couple days ago. Yestereday, price dropped to this mean and immediately went right back up. Traders are finder value around here for some reason. If they find value again at 24-29, I'll be looking for a long to the upper channel at 51, and possibly higher. If priced doesn't find a new place where traders are finding value, we can expect it to then fall back to the mean. Time will tell. With price where it is, we could also sit in equillibrium all day and not have any nice moves.

Yesterday high of 64.75, and low of 24.25. It should be easy to test the low really quick if it wants to.