I recognize the frustration of having a working method go awry -we have all likely had this same experience- whether it's due to the personal /emotional issues or the market condition out of your control.- You know averaging down eventually is alosing proposition- take it out of the equation alltogether and don't entertain it agian- Trade based on the present set up and Risk as you see it - Don't trade when tired or emotional- be Objective-step away- step out a time frame .Or Two- You know this already- Likely better than I do.
as far as one method wortking- and then failing to work- Yes- that will happen more frequently in your time frame- and requires the ability on your part to discover when that trend is occurring- I would think that you have to adapt quicker on your time frame than I do- I see the trends as gradual- You likely see them as more sharp reversals- I think the best thing would be to reduce your position size in times of uncertainity- Maybe step out on a time frame or two and analyze whether you are in a wider consolidation or still within a trend- Become the tactical trader and sharpshooter on the higher time frame- when that choppiness occurs- You will succeed when you nail the moments that a trend occurs- You will bleed when you jump in the middle of a chop/consolidation- Lower your risk- trade the extremes of the swings for the best reward/entries. Target your entry. Yes, conditions change- Your success is determined by how well you can reduce Risk when that does not favor you- and to increase Risk when it does. This usually happens at the wide swings- Look higher on the time frames- step up and view the really bigger picture.
Yes- market conditions indeed change the overall environment- If you were able to double the account in one market environment- that favors you- know when that puts your trades in favor- that is your edge- Giving it back is painful- but we have all done that - ( I struggle with that myself) failed to adapt to a rapidly changing environment- market mood or swing- When we get defensive- we don't risk enough- When we feel we are on top of our game- we risk too much- Or perhaps we are too cautious- The key is to try to develop some consistency in our approach to the environment- The environment rules and changes -often daily on market emotion. Positioning ourselves to take advantage of swings in the market offers great contrarian advantage- On the recent market pullback, I actully didn't wait long to reenter-tactically- as the market had a sharp sell-off- Fortunately, the rebound was a sharp snap higher and the trades I made then were low risk and net profitable- Makes you feel you got it figured- but as you say- the next time will be different- The pullback & reentry will see a short bounce up and then drop lower-And Crap- I've lost money!
I've been there, doine that- and want to find a methodology that stops giving gains back- I give to charity at home- don't need to take that approach in my trading! I want to gain consistently- give back less , and then gain more-
Success is something that one can repeat-It is built on a solid foundation -perhaps fundamental- perhaps analytical and proven- or combination of all. Temporary extremes of success or failure are indeed extremes at both ends- One does not want to acquire overnight success- because it is fleeting and without substance- and will dissappear as easily- One wants to challenge one'sself- develop a consistency in a method and learn-over time- to believe in the method (s) or to refine it. Adapting to a changing market environment may prove when the method does not work well or fails- And it is time to step aside and evaluate- or adapt methods- One cannot be a "one-trick -Pony in trading and survive the swings over the short term- Stepping aside in times of turmoil in the markets is sound judgement- let the battle work itself out and then step back in- Become a trend trader-- or go to the sidelines in chop.
When you analyze your trades- objectively- Have you printed them out? How did you know to continue to take the trades that made you a winner -despite the 3 losing trades- What gave you the confidence to enter again? If you can explain that- you have an edge- It was not simply random in the way you managed those trades- Perhaps the market was indeed in your favor at the time- Good- You exploited that condition. Can you repeat that again Monday? What has to happen-?
It is said that we get what we want out of the markets and that only we hold ourselves back- It sounds like some kind of psychological mumbo-jumbo - but it's likely true- We get to a level and develop a certain comfort zone - Maybe we start a thread on ET -LOL! We plateau instead of pushing ourselves harder on the psyche end- or the analysis end of how effective our approach is-
I've been writing this too late- Good luck in your ability to step back and adapt- If that is what is needed-
OK- I started a thread on ET-
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/long-term-position-trading-primarily-etfs.287664/
I will add to it on occaision-as time and interest permits- focus is not day trading though- I think this will help me "step up" my game a notch though- SD
