Quote from Locutus:
Amusingly, you are both somewhat correct, however Visaria is a lot more correct.
First let's start off with ME economies having an impact on FX. Market chatter is that the bottom in EUR.USD was put in by ME names and these are continuing to bid up the pair (obviously there's no way of knowing if that's true, but that's the rumor and if it were true, ME states certainly have the means to put in a bottom in EUR.USD). The rumor that there were significant ME bids below 1.30 was circulating well before the bottom not far from that level was put in.
Now, to examine the hypothetical that the ME will start encouraging payment in euros, potentially eventually demanding it (this would suit them very well, considering that if the rumor it is ME names buying up the EUR.USD pair is true, it will fill their coffers very nicely on the paper gains), this would affect the USD's reserve currency status greatly. If the reserve currency status were revoked the USD index could easily plummet another 30-60% (no idea how deep it could go, it could become a self-enforcing cycle).
Unfortunately at this stage (and I consider it a near-certainty that the USD will not be reserve currency within two decades) the US will no longer be able to keep up its level of consumption. If you run the figures it is quickly obvious the only reason the US has been able to have much more consumption than the rest of the world is its currency reserve status (unlimited lending, basically).
I consider this a good thing from an ethical perspective, makes the world a better and more equal place. When US dominance ends, perhaps we will have a more equal and globalized society without a single bully who can make unethical decisions unchecked by those who might oppose (UN).
The only upside to the US I can see in all this, is that if this were to happen the outsourcing trend may stall and/or reverse, bringing back job creation to the US which, if you take off your rose-colored glasses, is never going to happen any other way.
Edit: Also, if you think that Kuweit, Saudi Arabia and such are "primitive" you are a retard. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html
Really? When was the last time you bought anything made in Kuwait or Saudi Arabia that wasn't related to oil? Just because oil revenues buys lots of crap doesn't mean their economies aren't crap.
As for the rest, boilerplate I've read a million times.
Job creation? Nokia is dead, killed by Apple and Android. Google created an entire industry - online ads - that didn't exist just a few years ago.
As did Facebook and Twitter.
Or, we could get into Amazon. Indeed, Seattle has produced them and Microsoft and Starbucks, and before any of them it produced Boeing.
The US doesn't just have Silicon Valley.
As for currencies, I've got news for you: this whole thing has happened before, back in the early seventies, when Nixon took the dollar off gold. When all was said and done, by 1990 communism was dead and Japan (the China of its time) was in its first year of two continuous decades of stagnation.
If you think
this time will be different, the investment graveyard is full of people who thought that same thought.