Fed's Bullard: We'll get back to normal in H2

[Nighthawk]

Bullard spoke to the WSJ

• Trouble in the economy "is mostly a second quarter phenomenon, and then we'll start to recover and get back to normal in the second half of the year."
• "This can only go on for so long. You can hit the pause button on the U.S. economy, but if you try to keep it on pause for too long, too many other problems will start to accrue and you'll start to get lots of bankruptcies and lots of business failures."
  
• "The real risk here is that the response to the pandemic, which is appropriate, would then morph into a depression-like scenario, and I think we are taking depression risk here if we are not careful and if we don't execute this properly over the next couple of months."
• Warns that if shutdown goes on too long, there won't be a proper recovery
• "I just don't see any chance that we'd be moving off that kind of stance until we get much better numbers on the U.S. economy."

 

[Scataphagos]

Too bad we can't buy puts on that!

 

[S2007S]

Lots of bankruptcy and business failures. Thats already unfolding. We don't have clear numbers yet, but I think one can easily assume at least 5% of small businesses are probably never going to open up again even if they lifted the quarantine today!!!!

 

[S2007S]

This news just crossing


3.8 million homeowners delay mortgage payments!!!!


Hmmmmm, the fed is about to print more trillions!!!!




https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

 

[southall]

This news just crossing


3.8 million homeowners delay mortgage payments!!!!

That is only around $3.8 billion per month, so peanuts.

 

[Scataphagos]

That is only around $3.8 billion per month, so peanuts.

Hell YES. Fed will print a few $Trill to cover that! No worries.

 

[Cuddles]

reminds me of "we'll only have 50,000 dead, tops".

 

[1957may10]

Bullard spoke to the WSJ

• Trouble in the economy "is mostly a second quarter phenomenon, and then we'll start to recover and get back to normal in the second half of the year."
• "This can only go on for so long. You can hit the pause button on the U.S. economy, but if you try to keep it on pause for too long, too many other problems will start to accrue and you'll start to get lots of bankruptcies and lots of business failures."
  
• "The real risk here is that the response to the pandemic, which is appropriate, would then morph into a depression-like scenario, and I think we are taking depression risk here if we are not careful and if we don't execute this properly over the next couple of months."
• Warns that if shutdown goes on too long, there won't be a proper recovery
• "I just don't see any chance that we'd be moving off that kind of stance until we get much better numbers on the U.S. economy."

Sure, make sense. We should MOVE ON.

 

[Scataphagos]

As for "getting back to normal"....

1. Not gonna do it. The old "normal" will not be seen again for years/decades.

2. Getting back to "close to normal"... well, maybe 50% of that... accompanied by lots of inflation thanks to the Fed.

 

[1957may10]

As for "getting back to normal"....

1. Not gonna do it. The old "normal" will not be seen again for years/decades.

2. Getting back to "close to normal"... well, maybe 50% of that... accompanied by lots of inflation thanks to the Fed.

It will be new “normal”. Make sure you have fancy mask to wear