Fed will do what at 2:15pm Wed?

Fed will do what at 2:15pm Wed?

  • No cut

    Votes: 15 9.6%

  • 25bps cut

    Votes: 75 47.8%

  • 50bps cut

    Votes: 54 34.4%

  • 75bps cut

    Votes: 3 1.9%

  • 100bps cut

    Votes: 10 6.4%
  • Total voters
    157
Its most likely going to be 50, fed fund futures have the odds of a 25bp cut at 100%, and 50bp at 78%. Its safe to say that anything less than 50 will be a major disappointment.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

I've heard it reported that the fed funds futures are anticipating a 1/2 point cut, but <b>does anyone know the percentage odds, based on their last trade?</b>

The fed fund futures were designed in such a convoluted way, you need a mathematics degree to decipher this shit.

I've actually made barrels of cash by predicting the Fed's actions/likely market reaction BEFOREWARDS! Gaming the Fed in advance is a 100% legit trading maneuver, IMO. To each his own...
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http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Workpaper/2005/WP0507.pdf

that uses options on ff futures, not the futures themselves.

accordingly, there's a 59% probability of a 50 bp cut and 28% probability of 25 bp cut, as of today.
 
Quote from trickshot:

Its most likely going to be 50, fed fund futures have the odds of a 25bp cut at 100%, and 50bp at 78%. Its safe to say that anything less than 50 will be a major disappointment.
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So 50 will lead to sell off since it's baked in already?
 
who cares 50bp or 25bp, just watch markets reaction later.

Saw the banking/CC services/homebuilders sector run up lately? this is how they a pricing in the expectations of a bigger cut. So the mentioned sectors are to set to watch (ok homebuilders will be lower anyways because of centex dismal earnings)

Tradingboy
 
The fed will cut .25 because they what to take away that stigmata of being slaves to the market. Just look at oil if he cut's more it will surely rise to a 100 again. Note that oil needs to come down and the only way that can happen is to have a minor recession. If Ben gets to crazy as oil is making a base right now it will surely go to the 120 by the end of the summer. So he will let the market digest a total of 1 percentage point of the month. To ensure that inflation will not come back to haunt us.
 
Quote from Cocaine:

who cares, just pay attention to what happens AFTERWARDS
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I too don't see why any trader using his trading technique would care one way or another.
 
No point blind guessing, read a chart, short if it shows a short opp and buy if it shows buy opp or do nothing if no set-up becomes apparent :)

No vote here
 
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