Fed rate poll

[DarioC]

margins aren't great except for the energy sector, prices are higher, but mostly oil related. Hike policy will continue, but there should be a pause here, already seeing negative effects from previous hikes, don't want to head into a recession.

 

[Arnie]

I voted "pause", only because of Rita. They can always raise rates later before next meeting.

 

[aPismoClam]

Quote from TGregg:


For the record, here's my prediction. The fed will not raise rates, and will cite controlled economic growth combined with Katrina as the reason. They will also imply a decent chance of raising rates next time.

see my previous, the gist being that disasters are inflationary.

 

[Covertibility]

U.S. Bond Firms Cut 10-Year Forecast

Another year on the books and another year bond guys have to cut forecast.

Whoever casted the rate cut in this poll, your too early. Wait for at least Thanksgiving retail sales numbers along how the retailers played it.

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from MacroEvent:

or how about the worst case scenario --- fed raises .25 and has a ton of verbiage about inflation in the announcement. remember that greenie {inflation hawk} would not want to go out as someone who missed the big inflation spike.

yeap --- just what I thought.

 

[Babak]

Quote from Babak:

I mean to say it goes up. If the Fed pauses or heaven forbid, cuts that will telegraph that the US is in big doo-doo. We all know it is anyway but the Fed will not want to communicate this.

When they raise, this will communicate that the economy is strong and will/has weathered (pardon the pun) the recent shocks.

oops! What happened?

 

[mhashe]

Quote from Babak:

oops! What happened?

I think Greenspan is more worried about inflation and deflating the second great bubble he's created. housing. Rates will keep on going up.

 

[TGregg]

Wow what a day! Been a while since the market saw a rate hike it didn't like.

 

[vulture]

Must have been a real beating for the five guys who voted for a rate cut!

 

[Babak]

imho it had a lot to do with oil. This thing has been propped by that sector for a long time and we're seeing some weakness - even with Rita! :eek: